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Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

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Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#311
post #201

Whenever I think about the situation in China it makes me wonder why the Chinese government is spending so much political capital to keep people from getting infected by such an incredibly transmissible disease. I had this idea that China was run by engineer types who were fairly rational. From the initial denial that there was any disease at all, to later saying it wasn't transmissible between humans, to the obvious…

Maybe people are more important than cars in China.

I'm not entirely sure you read the comment correctly. Covid is highly transmissible. A covid-zero policy is untenable. Shutting down essentially everything (including cars) is not going to protect the people.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#312
post #43

I did not realize there is such a strict lockdown even now. Somehow missed that news cycle. However that makes me wonder if the other countries in the world like India and major parts of the US even test now. I mean unless it’s absolutely clear it’s covid they probably don’t test and go on with their lives.

I've been following the situation and it's absolutely wild. It all stems from their Zero covid policy, they are the only country still perusing it, to the absolute detriment and destruction of everything else it seems. With how fast Omicron spreads, zero-covid is simply untenable these days but China is trying... The basic report is that people are starving. The government has provided food but the food situation is…

It's all been very crazy to me too, the only plausible factor IMO is the low vaccination of the elderly in China. Overall vaccination rate is very high, but among elderly it is lower. I guess the rationale at the time was that in a COVID-0 country, the risk of COVID itself is lower than health risks associated with vaccination for certain groups.

So now they are trying to prevent what happened in Hong Kong (which also had low vaccination rate among the elderly.) I would hope they are trying to vaccinate the elderly now though.

I feel like there's a significantly non-zero chance that after the lockdown is lifted, it's going to happenn again within a couple of months.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was only “against” lockdowns more recently on the principle that the reactance to it combined with an inappropriate infrastructure and system makes it not terribly effective and would hurt the efficacy of it as a policy vs the sound, rational theory from a purely epidemiology standpoint. If anything, I was hoping at least people would accept masking to the N95 standard but I don’t know what it’ll take before people…

The thing they some people forget is everybody bad problems and for many Covid is not the highest. All these mitigations are asking everybody to prioritize Covid over basically everything else. Many (most?) people don’t care about Covid as much as they care about other things. And you know what? That is okay. The myopic obsession on one singular disease to the exclusion of literally everything else was not healthy. C…

Our media has a huge part to play into what people do care about and given conservative people in other countries were absolutely worried about COVID and its economic impacts holistically most Western countries devolved into unproductive antagonistic antisocial dialogue that drives up ratings and clicks. I don’t know anyone that stopped caring about other things when it comes to the pandemic - it’s an issue that touched all our lives though and exposed bare how unstable we are as a system in every aspect imaginable.

It’s true that COVID wasn’t everyone’s top concern necessarily especially compared to simply surviving when so many people were losing jobs and the entire US healthcare system was about to collapse, but mostly people everywhere together did want one thing for sure - for the whole ordeal to be over. Our inability to try to focus upon ending things faster so we can go back to normal with our media system amplifying our worst selves while the administration was hampered / self sabotaged didn’t help then.

When it came to the first SARS outbreak the talk about lockdowns was barely mentioned except by the overly-online folks. We had earlier detection and better intervention that managed to save many, many lives in the US and nothing had to happen - that’s the same feature as infrastructure or management that works well (it’s not really noticed when it does a good job). The disease vectors for that were also different and better contained earlier across the world governments.

Look at the differences between the South Park episodes about the recent SARCOV2 pandemic v the one way back about SARSCOV1 - it’s absolutely staggering how the themes and implications all changed.

Regardless, caricaturizing opposing viewpoints into some strawman doesn’t make one’s own opinions any stronger regardless of position. I’m guessing that’s the reason for your downvotes and not your opinion in itself (I’m not much of a voting participant one way or the other FWIW).

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO it's all about Xi and the other folks at the top trying to "save face" [1]. Looking it from that lens it all makes perfect sense. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_(sociological_concept)

no, it doesnt make any sense, because he is going to get himself assassinated or there is going to be a revolution if they keep this up. there is no way, unless the government bureaucracy is orders of magnitude more deranged than we've thought, that destroying the country and the global economy is worth less than saving face.

Among prominent world leaders, both Putin and Xi Jinping were able to handily remove term limits for presidents (Trump also floated the idea plenty of times on Twitter, of course you have to win 2 terms first before you seek a 3rd.)

I am no expert on Chinese politics and the inner workings of the Communist party, but I thought this viewpoint from a Chinese dissident was interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/21/china-cai-xia-...

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#315
post #201

Whenever I think about the situation in China it makes me wonder why the Chinese government is spending so much political capital to keep people from getting infected by such an incredibly transmissible disease. I had this idea that China was run by engineer types who were fairly rational. From the initial denial that there was any disease at all, to later saying it wasn't transmissible between humans, to the obvious…

Because it works. Shenzhen is not locked down, but they test everybody several times a week. Singapore is down to 5 of 16 districts with COVID. China's zero-COVID policy worked quite well against the pre-omicron variants, with R around 3. It's a tough struggle against omicron, with R around 7. The US just passed one million COVID deaths. The US's "declare a victory and go home" policy is not working. The US case rate…

On the long term only vaccines limit death, not lockdowns. Chinese people will all have covid as western people did.

And even if it worked.. at what price ? living in a prison-country for the sake of saving mostly 80+ year old people ?

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#316
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone other than the Chinese government seems to agree that a zero covid policy isn't realistic anymore. And empirically, they haven't succeeded. But ... why is that the case? Why _doesn't_ an ultra-strict lockdown for this long prevent spread (and allow existing cases to resolve)? What are the remaining opportunities for it to spread? Throughout 2021, I had sort of told myself that most of the harms of the pandem…

> But ... evidently that's not true. Why not? The problem with lockdown measures is that it will inevitably harm someone. We might all be healthy and safe at home so harm is reduced with respect to Covid, but what about the harm caused by the lockdown measures themselves. Say you have a town of 100 people. If you went into a hard lockdown to prevent any spread, you might save 10 people from dying of Covid; however, t…

That's exactly the thing- it is almost always going to be a judgement call, so the worst thing in the USA was for it to become politicized. In China, a monolithic 'zero COVID' policy was easily arguably better than the USA's fragmented efforts and conflicts 1-2 years ago, but now?

The evolutionary path of COVID seems more likely to follow that of the Spanish flu than to become more and more deadly. What happens if the next strain is even more contagious but also correspondingly less dangerous (especially as natural and vaccination immunity continues to rise)? Yes, people still die but there are trade offs with all policies, that's why we don't have flu lockdowns.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#317
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone other than the Chinese government seems to agree that a zero covid policy isn't realistic anymore. And empirically, they haven't succeeded. But ... why is that the case? Why _doesn't_ an ultra-strict lockdown for this long prevent spread (and allow existing cases to resolve)? What are the remaining opportunities for it to spread? Throughout 2021, I had sort of told myself that most of the harms of the pandem…

I imagine the harsh crack down is partly to blame. If you suspected you had COVID but testing positive would mean you, your family, and everyone in your apartment building would get sent to a recovery center.. would you report it? I would bet the inspectors themselves are spreading it. If in the West we incentivized it however.. a few weeks forced holiday with free groceries..

I don't disagree with your logic (people would try to hide sickness), but they do have mandatory testing.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it works. Shenzhen is not locked down, but they test everybody several times a week. Singapore is down to 5 of 16 districts with COVID. China's zero-COVID policy worked quite well against the pre-omicron variants, with R around 3. It's a tough struggle against omicron, with R around 7. The US just passed one million COVID deaths. The US's "declare a victory and go home" policy is not working. The US case rate…

On the long term only vaccines limit death, not lockdowns. Chinese people will all have covid as western people did. And even if it worked.. at what price ? living in a prison-country for the sake of saving mostly 80+ year old people ?

It buys time until the next generation of vaccines. Which are coming along well.[1]

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/moderna-redesigned-covid-vac...

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am strongly opposed to this for SARS-CoV2, but for something like Ebola, it might the best possible response.

Pretty sure of Ebola went airborne you wouldn’t need to use government force to keep people at home. Covid needed a marketing campaign and a healthy dose of 24/7 media fearmongering to get anybody to “take it serious”. And even then a good chunk of people called BS on it pretty quickly. If there was airborne Ebola and dudes were dropping dead on the streets with blood coming out of every orifice… totally different sc…

At least, in the USA, we have learned nothing from the past two years. I'm pretty sure if Ebola went airborne, and people were dropping dead in the streets, there would still be a large number of people downplaying, denying, and politicizing the virus. And if the government dared to even suggest they voluntarily isolate, they'd be angrily protesting in the street for their innate right to spread it around and die.

We're talking about people, who, on their death beds, used their last breath before going on the ventilator to cus out the doctor and call COVID a Liberal hoax. The country is full of belligerent morons with persecution complexes, and there is no reason to expect that they'd change just because Ebola was more visibly disgusting.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#320
post #240
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone other than the Chinese government seems to agree that a zero covid policy isn't realistic anymore. And empirically, they haven't succeeded. But ... why is that the case? Why _doesn't_ an ultra-strict lockdown for this long prevent spread (and allow existing cases to resolve)? What are the remaining opportunities for it to spread? Throughout 2021, I had sort of told myself that most of the harms of the pandem…

So, firstly, because you can't actually do that. If literally everyone stays at home for three weeks, then there is nobody to staff power plants, water plants, etc, and those services fail. There are also no ambulances to help people who fall ill at home, no hospitals to take them to. No police to chase after people who decide to break lockdown and loot some deserted shops or prey on isolated families. No firemen to…

Thanks for this reply. I'm guessing the first two points are the most important? And I would have hoped that after 2 years of planning, China could have figured out a lot of ways to improve 1. They certainly have some workforces who have been obligated to live at their workplace, with regular testing.

For 3-5, even if "lock down for 3 weeks" can't literally stop all cases, it still sounds like it could have been achievable to bring them back down to the level where track-and-trace could be effective, and China's efforts would be much more successful than they have been.

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