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Is everything falling apart?

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Re: Is everything falling apart?

#591

Post by justin66 »

TimPC wrote: post #211

I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from t…

> This literally meets the definition of a ponzi scheme

It absolutely does not. Investors in a Ponzi scheme do not have the information needed to allow them to be aware of the fraud involved. In contrast, at any given point in time you can extrapolate when the Social Security system (for example - the same principle applies to any pension that isn't literally cooking the books) will need to start drawing on the general fund, or fail, if it continues operating as it is operating today.

It is a bad mistake to just characterize every non-sustainable investment scheme as a Ponzi scheme. For starters, you'd be awfully confused about what is legal and what is illegal...

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#592

Post by unethical_ban »

I think this is a great article, which doesn't say "everything is fine" but analyzes underlying root cause, and that the problems are older than we think. But also, wars have been fought due to the kinds of changes we are experiencing. I am truly concerned for the fate of Democracy in America.

This has a similar to e to Jon Meacham's "The Soul of America" which looks back through times of great division and bitterness brought about by rapid societal changes. It is well worth a read if you like US history and think this was a good article.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#593

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

throwaway15908 wrote: post #503
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On one level, sure, I'm definitely with you. The term "woke" is vague, subject to toxic stereotyping, and it'd be nice if people didn't use it. But I don't think we can overlook the pressures that push people towards it. The problem is that a lot of movements that get grouped under "woke" self-identify with vacuously positive labels that can't be negated. If I go around telling people "anti-racism is bad", they're go…

I was about to write "The Problem we both have is mislabeling" but then i realized that we dont have the same problem. From my perspective, conservatives/rights often stand out with blatant and harmful falsehoods. Even in your last post is a central self contradiction. >movements that get grouped under "woke" self-identify with vacuously positive labels that can't be negated >If I go around telling people "anti-racis…

"Anti-racism is bad" is meant to be negated. It would be totally reasonable for someone to respond by saying "well, I actually think anti-racism is good, and here's why".

There's a risk of labels getting in the way, no doubt. But there's a lot of things that seem straightforwardly impossible to reason about without labels. How could we discuss what the abstract principles of race relations in the US should be without identifying and naming the major strains of thought on that topic?

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#594

Post by paganel »

throwaway6734 wrote: post #470
oicU00 wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah no doubt; I collate trends into reports for rich investors. Lately they have been focused on youth trends, and some numbers are wacky. 40% point drop in 16 year olds getting a license since the 80s as urbanization puts people closer to stuff and ride share appeared. Youth participation in sports, especially full contact sports, had been going down since before covid which just accelerated it, leading to forec…

>We engineered away stability for JIT, covid came along and proved to many we live in a Banana Republic exporting memes of exceptionalism, while most people can’t grow a potato for themselves. This is hyperbolic. The US is not a banana republic. Why would you expect the average person to need to know how to grow a potato?

This [1] is worse than a banana republic, is society collapsing onto itself. Supposedly, inside a banana republic the family as an institution still holds some value, close friends and relatives still act like a de-facto safety net if the need arises. The people from that video have none of that.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOBoDT-3oM0

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#595

Post by lotsofpulp »

john_moscow wrote: post #349
TimPC wrote: post #211

I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from t…

Economy and politics always go together. Optimizing the economy for the retirements funds (creating favorable conditions for existing big companies) has eliminated the paths to prosperity for the new generations (you cannot run your own shop to outcompete Loblaws or Walmart, and a cashier job there will never afford you anything more than bare survival). This is discouraging people from starting families and having k…

> Optimizing the economy for the retirements funds (creating favorable conditions for existing big companies) has eliminated the paths to prosperity for the new generations (you cannot run your own shop to outcompete Loblaws or Walmart, and a cashier job there will never afford you anything more than bare survival).

Technology, efficiencies of scaling, and automation make it difficult for less efficient businesses to compete. Retirement funds have nothing to do with it.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#596

Post by basisword »

BeFlatXIII wrote: post #567
basisword wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree that buying property has become very difficult, what has changed in 2022 that prevents you from getting a stable white collar job or finding a partner? If you have the requisite skillset (which can be acquired more easily than ever thanks to the internet) getting a stable white collar job is very possible. And in the age of dating apps, so much friction has been removed when it comes to finding a partne…

Having the skill set to do a job is vastly different from having the skill set (or connections) to get the job.

Yes, but how is this more difficult in 2022?

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#597

Post by [deleted] »

throwaway15908 wrote: post #503
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On one level, sure, I'm definitely with you. The term "woke" is vague, subject to toxic stereotyping, and it'd be nice if people didn't use it. But I don't think we can overlook the pressures that push people towards it. The problem is that a lot of movements that get grouped under "woke" self-identify with vacuously positive labels that can't be negated. If I go around telling people "anti-racism is bad", they're go…

I was about to write "The Problem we both have is mislabeling" but then i realized that we dont have the same problem. From my perspective, conservatives/rights often stand out with blatant and harmful falsehoods. Even in your last post is a central self contradiction. >movements that get grouped under "woke" self-identify with vacuously positive labels that can't be negated >If I go around telling people "anti-racis…

[deleted]

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#598

Post by nostromo »

We need to return to federalism and bring an end to activist politicians. (Good luck with that, I know...)

The reason the American Experiment has worked so well for a few centuries is because we knew how to leave each other alone. If I'm in New York City, it's really none of my business what's happening in Albany, let alone Albuquerque New Mexico, so long as some basic standards of universal liberty are upheld.

Today that's all out the window. Activists for every issue want every issue solved at the federal level. Well, the problem with that is the US is a big country and the federal government should do the bare minimum, not the maximum. Both parties have completely forgotten this and it's really heightened tensions.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#599

Post by jjav »

bsenftner wrote: post #318
b112 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the 60s was far, far, far more disillusioned than this.

And the baby boomers who created the upset of the 60's are now in charge, and their disillusioned leadership is pushing these divisions ever wider. They are the institutions and they do not trust themselves, as is clear via the leadership stalemate and both parties destroying their best hopes in favor of the crumbling and ever more distant wealthy status quo.

> And the baby boomers who created the upset of the 60's are now in charge

No, "they" are not. The few people in the inner political circles of that generation are in charge, same as every other time in history. The normal hardworking people are never in charge.

I remember when in middle school (Gen X here) I thought when our youth generation grows up and gets to be in charge the world will be better, because everyone I knew in school and out was so reasonable and so nice. Surely none of these people will be the corrupt politicians of tomorrow?

And turns out they(we)'re not the corrupt politicians of today. Because none of those regular kids of then are in charge. Who is? The children and grandchildren of the corrupt politicians of back then, groomed from childhood to be the corrupt politicians of today. They weren't in our middle class school of course, so never met any of them.

How to break that cycle? Ideally by voting for people not affiliated with the dominant two parties, but the system is rigged against that succeeding, so I don't know.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#600

Post by dragonwriter »

incomingpain wrote: post #576
shagie wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(as the twitter picture is getting a bit of thought) The depiction of the right remaining where it is from 2008 to 2021 is misguided at best. The party of George Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney is the same as the GOP today is incorrect. https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2021-04-20/geo... https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/27/politics/mitt-romney-gop-ukra... https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/27/politics/john-mccain-…

>The depiction of the right remaining where it is from 2008 to 2021 is misguided at best. As I mention here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31206510 it has been objectively measured. There have been quite a number of leftist political commentators who recently have been offended that they are labelled right-wing now. Bill Maher or Russel Brand for examples. Carlos Maza before his disgrace wrote on the subject @…

> There have been quite a number of leftist political commentators who recently have been offended that they are labelled right-wing now. Bill Maher

Was never a leftist, or a political commentator with any coherent ideology at all. AFAICT, he was only ever painted by some as a leftist because of the Right painting everyone who wasn't in lockstep with the racist war fury of the early 00s as “leftist”, and because being a comedian when the Republican Party was at a local maximum of control, for a while all the easy targets for his contrarian humor were in the Right.

And he’s evolved on the positions that got him perceived as leaning left then, becoming more positive retrospectively on the Iraq War, more Islamophobic over time, etc., more openly supportive of foreign dictatorships in general.

Brand I’ve not paid much attention to, but he never struck me as particularly leftist, either.

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