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Is everything falling apart?

nonzero.substack.com

211–220 of 970 posts

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#211
I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from them at any one time. This literally meets the definition of a ponzi scheme and it will be heartbreaking when it comes due.

The other near-ponzi scheme is the real estate market. In my city of Toronto, average real estate prices have gone from 2x average income in 1972 to 16x average income today. To continue growing at this pace they'd have to reach 128x average income by 2072. Those prices are absurd enough that it's clear there will be a slowdown in real estate prices before then. But much of our society is built on real estate growth and we aggressively encourage people to own real estate assets worth more than the entirety of their net worth. When these assets stop going up, or even worse start going down there will be major complications for society. I'm not talking about the adverse effects of a temporary market correction, I'm talking about a new normal in which real estate is flat or downward trending. When real estate is no longer an incredible investment opportunity it will have significant adverse effects on society. For instance, homes are currently a large part of people's retirement plans and selling a home is often used to pay for an extended stay in a nursing home (which is quite expensive). For many people the home represents over 60% of a retirement plan. In my parents lifetime, their home value increased to roughly 10x what it was worth. If my home increases 4x instead this is a substantial adverse impact. If my child's home increases 0x this is disastrous.

The things we fundamentally depend on to provide things as important in society as retirement are breaking badly. Meanwhile we're so obsessed with political differences that we barely talk about or work towards solving the slow economic crisis we are facing.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, you are contrasting your peers to a propagandistic caricature. Or how easy can you fit in that image "moderate" leftists like bernie sanders or noam chomsky? What is the difference between woke and left?

I don't want to necessarily defend "woke" as a term, but if you pinned me down, I'd say the difference between woke and left is that Noam Chomsky isn't woke. He thinks free speech is very important and signed onto a famous letter on the topic of "cancel culture" and why it's bad. I don't think he has or would identify as anti-woke, but the general phenomenon of ideological capture in mass communications is something…

So you agree with me, that left and woke is not the same thing.

Whats odd thou is, (1) there is no clear definition of wokeism, like its an arbitrary stereotype used by demagogues and (2), that woke is often displayed on the other side of right/conservative. This makes it a strong indicator of propaganda. A surface, people can project their negative emotions to, which is another red flag in terms of populism. Even you used it indirectly, to refer to your peers "not liking woke", which is why i asked.

I am not defending wokeism too. One core value of the left is equality and solidarity. When you define wokeism as some LGBTQ-stuff, it would be just a subset of these values. So being woke does not make you left.

This is my answer to, what is the difference between woke and left.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think there can't be any civilizations in the universe which exist indefinitely? For the past millions or even billions of years? If humans get past the next couple of centuries and start spreading out into the solar system and possibly beyond, what would cause us to have a last generation?

I can't speak of all civilizations, but I do think that there can't be any human civilizations that last indefinitely -- human nature will prevent it.

There definitely can be human civilizations that last indefinitely, so long as we stop keeping all our eggs in one basket, planet-wise.

Once we get humans living far enough apart that information about pandemics travels faster than pandemics do, then we should be largely invincible, barring suicide from ennui.

The larger our sub-galactic civilization, the more resilient it becomes to things like total war, total political revolution, etc.

It's really hard to be a galactic emperor at multi light-year distances. By the time you wipe out half the population of the empire, the other half will have doubled.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#214

I remember watching the universal disdain Americans shared for high finance after 2008 and even movements like Occupy Wall Street resonated with a lot more people than one would have predicted. Then, all of the sudden, a whole new field of social engineering algorithms are unleashed on the populace, convincing everyone that their neighbor is the true enemy.

Why do you think that OWS was killed by new "social engineering algorithms"?

The US has had a strong anti-protest culture for decades. March in the street, for anything, and the response is near universal cynicism and derision of the "hippies". With OWS this was apparent with traditional news coverage that constantly focused on the most ridiculous looking protestors

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#215
post #116
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t understand what you’re trying to convey. The terms fascist and nazi seem to have lost all meaning nowadays…at least to the far left.

Good god, enough with this "fascist and nazi seem to have lost all meaning" nonsense. Let's call it the "No true fascist fallacy". I could bring the corpse of Himmler here and some people would regurgitate the same "Bu-bu-but that's not actually fascist enough!". OP was basically quoting the definition of Ur-fascism by Umberto Eco. Is that historically accurate enough for you? Or should we check beforehand if whoever…

The reason people focus on definitions like “oh, it’s really about toxic masculinity!” is because admitting the truth would make them look bad:

Fascism is a collectivist authoritarian system with regulated commerce rather than direct state control, often co-occurring with systemic racism.

The reason people don’t want to be honest about the definition is that it’s the platform of modern Democrats, who are gaslighting by calling everyone else a “fascist”:

Democrats are collectivist authoritarian.

Democrats are pushing for regulated commerce.

Democrats are rebuilding systemic racism, from rationing healthcare [2] and government aid [1] based on race to attempting to repeal civil rights laws in WA [4] and CA [3].

Democrats took to the street in acts of arson, violence, and murder to terrorize the public ahead of an election — the modern Brownshirts. [5]

Democrats are fascist.

Sources:

https://nypost.com/2021/06/15/farmers-upset-with-bidens-amer...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/race-based...

https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_16,_Repeal_Pr...

https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_Initiative_1000,_Affirmat...

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/everybody-down-wha...

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#216
post #179

[flagged]

I'd like to see numbers backing it up either way. I'm center left leaning and I largely distrust journalism these days. I don't consistently read any news source and assume appropriately relevant and significant information will filter it's way to me from my network. It's worked well so far and I've managed to keep my biases moderate. It also let's me more easily filter out bs since I'm not consistently immersed in i…

Absolutely. I'm very center, perhaps slightly left. But aside from Rachel Maddow, I don't trust what I hear.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Blaming social media is not legitimate in my opinion; social media will be what fixes this. The fix to the USA falling apart is free and open discussions between the camps. This is what Elon is planning to do with twitter. I’m skeptical that he can fundamentally change the incentives that make social media amplify extremist views over moderate views. “The other side is terrible” will always get more engagement than…

>I’m skeptical that he can fundamentally change the incentives that make social media amplify extremist views over moderate views. “The other side is terrible” will always get more engagement than “we should work together”, even with validated identities. There have been a ton of Elon doubters over the last 10 years. I hope he is successful. We must get people back to the same team.

He said if he’s successful, that both the far left and far right would be equally unhappy, has he made any kind of statement to suggest his goal is to “get people back on the same team”? I.E. his goal is to get people to trust the platform, not each other.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#218

Everything is not falling apart, though certain institutions may be falling apart. In America, there's definitely been a breakdown of belief in its own institutions. Far more people are skeptical of things like journalism and Silicon Valley; it really wasn't that long ago that the former was constantly salivating over the latter, but now it's more of an openly vulture-carrion relationship because that caters to publi…

We're in the last 50 years of industrial civilization. Anyone who spends enough time with systems thinking and looking at the big picture of industrial society inevitably comes to the same conclusion.

I was a "doomer" back when everything seemed fine. Nothing since 2019 has surprised me at all.

Things will continue to break down at a faster rate and more severely. However, one of my earliest realizations upon waking up to this was that as things become more obvious, people's denial will be not chipped away but rather strengthened.

The collapse of industrial civilization (and the non-zero possibility of species extinction) isn't just scary for most people, it deeply cuts into existential crisis territory. The vast majority of our strategies of copping with existence and our deep rooted fear of our inevitable death is a system of meaning largely created around our hopes in the future of society. As society collapse we are forced to start confronting things that terrify us, and the natural psychological reaction is often to just double down on not seeing it.

There are already so many things that we've normalized that would be shocking to someone from 2012: Global pandemic, land war with Russia, lake Mead on track to stop water flowing through the Hoover dam in 10 years, crop failures, supply chain crises, etc.

In a very literal sense "everything is falling apart". We have destroyed vast portions of the biosphere, we're seriously looking at ecosystem devastating ocean acidification, most of us will live to see a blue ocean event. But people will be unlikely to ever recognize this, rather they will continue to double down on "this is fine" and the associates madness and extreme cognitive dissonance required to maintain this illusion.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#219

Everything is not falling apart, though certain institutions may be falling apart. In America, there's definitely been a breakdown of belief in its own institutions. Far more people are skeptical of things like journalism and Silicon Valley; it really wasn't that long ago that the former was constantly salivating over the latter, but now it's more of an openly vulture-carrion relationship because that caters to publi…

I mean the default assumption/mode of thought of the average uninformed person today seems to be a cynical one, at least judging from friends/family and top ranked posts from random people on the Internet. Given a situation in which they have zero knowledge, they will assume a conspiracy, cheating, corruption, malice, or some kind of deliberate inequality or unfairness in which they are the disadvantaged party.

Usually the way these assertions are frame leaves anyone who disagrees in the position of having to prove the negative. Lack of evidence is no mater because "we know", while any trivial facts, even completely circumstantial ones, are held as proof.

For example, I spent many too many hours arguing with my partner that Epstein wasn't "certainly murdered", that not having camera footage wasn't proof. While possible, we simply didn't have evidence, and suicide was hardly inconceivable given the circumstances. Yet seemingly everyone I know seems to not merely believe that this happened, but that they know this for certain and that there is a mass conspiracy to cover this up. There's a belief that a) you have to take an absolute position of fact on unknowns and b) the case that attributes the most malice to the greatest number of the highest status people is always the correct one.

The result is kind of interesting to me, because you end up where a majority of "regular people" end up sharing a common view of the world, even without any coordination and often when their ideologies are polar opposite each other.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This gets straight into realms of like eschatology and the sources of and constraints on life, areas in which I hold deeply unpopular beliefs compared to the norm here. The most neutral way I can phrase this is that I think life is a planetary expression, more or less fundamentally inseparable from the planet on which it emerges. We may eventually be able to break those bonds but I don't think we're anywhere near as…

Why do you feel we should not try? (genuinely curious in your PoV)

I can't see that there's a moral way for people exit the solar system boundary out "into the stars." No one making that choice can arrive there, or even experience an appreciable part of the trip in one life. It's committing generations to be born, live and die for no purpose except to exist and to breed for some future goal of some past people. I believe this to be wicked.

People have always migrated into the unknown in the hope of something better for the people who will call them ancestors. But they've also always been able to make certain promises: that the sun will shine on them as it does on us, that crops will grow even if they aren't the crops we know, that the air is safe to breathe, that god will hear them there. Some of those people have been wrong about some of those things, but they always had good reason to trust in them.

We don't have reason to believe any of that about anywhere other than here. It's possible to imagine a future so grim that the best chance for our offspring is for us to force them to risk these unknowns. It's our responsibility to prevent that choice being necessary.

We can imagine things that could change this calculation. FTL, centuries-long human cryogenics, cross-lightyear microbiology. These are fantasies. If these powers are ever in anyone's grasp, that people will be fundamentally different from what we are, even if they came from us. I don't know what will be right for them and I have no claims on what they do.

Focusing on those far off fantasies of another people is a failure to appreciate our place here, the cosmic gift we've been given with our solar system. It is an understandable weakness but we should fight it. We have enough future in front of us as ourselves, we should leave the unrecognizable far depths of it to the unrecognizable people who will inhabit it.

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