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Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

restofworld.org

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Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#41
Is there also a power struggle between Shanghai and other political factions, with the civilian population caught in the middle?

Oct 2021, https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/shanghai-gang-seeks-xi-jinpin...

> those who understand the factionalism in China will appreciate the depth of the spillover to Hong Kong and therefore the rooting out that’s been taking place as a consequence ... power struggle with a rival political faction backed by former Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

Oct 2021, https://jamestown.org/program/factional-strife-intensifies-a...

> power struggle between Xi and former PBSC member and Vice President Zeng Qinghong. Zeng, a princeling and close aide of former president Jiang Zemin, is also a major leader of the so-called Shanghai Faction. Zeng is believed to be the “protection umbrella” behind several multi-billion enterprises.

Feb 2021, https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ORF_Occ...

> This paper ... argues that any attempt to comprehend elite politics in China requires an understanding of the factional dynamics within the party. The paper outlines the evolution of factional politics in China, and shows how two factions – the Shanghai Gang and the Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL) – have dominated the country’s politics over the past three decades.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#42
Not much a smart move IMVHO: discussing on a hyper-surveilled platform is not good at all and in any cases they can't download food so...

IMVHO they best move is just talking with their neighbors, in a day or two, offline, there will be a sufficient mass of people ready to descend to the street, and others will joint. At that point there is not much room for a new Tian'anmen: they are too much to be repressed.

On the other side: it's a lesson almost no one would like to learn that we need to produce enough food to nourish residents, witch means that any relatively small area (like a region) should allow at maximum the number of residents who can be nourished at a minimum level with locally produced foods, of course commerce would be still there and improve life, but for basic surviving local one must be there. And that's an enormous issue for China.

They need a younger population to remain in a growing state they need to counter the USA, they need to counter USA/UK because they are already too much and so they have to source food from south America, Africa etc witch means they need a dominance of "nearby" sees and USA can't accept that but a younger population means more children, so even more mouth to be nourished.

In Europe we have a less profound but not that different issue and in the north America I suspect that's the same.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#43
post #8

There's no point in doing this, COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once. You just want to slow it down not to overwhelm hospitals and that it's. And if you immunize everyone there's very few hospitalizations. Just make vaccines available - you don't even need to mandate them, most people will take them, and that's good enough.

"COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once" Unfortunately evidence seems to indicate that everyone getting once is also not very effective, the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron. You can find lots of studies with different numbers but none of them are good. China's behaviour with respect to vaccines is very strange, they could mandate vaccination very easily, they…

> the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron

So then what? Lockdowns forever? Vaccines are even worse than natural immunity.

But the truth is your numbers aren't accurate. Someone who had covid and is reinfected is unlikely to go to the hospital - and that's the only thing that matters.

Yes, they will get Omicron, but that doesn't matter. Vaccine or natural immunity (and get both if you can, in that order) prevent hospitalizations and death.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#44
post #14

I haven't seen yet why China is going into lockdown again. Is there a new variant?

IMVHO lockdowns have no sanitary reasons, they simply haven't enough prime matters and/or energy and/or food so they need to force a big stop without telling the real reason to a population used to grow year on year and work hard any day...

Witch is not much different than lowering down speed limits or asking to lower head/air-con usage in various EU countries.

Not much time ago VoxEU publish https://voxeu.org/article/trade-and-travel-time-epidemics a reasoning about how travels can be limited without hurting the economy and there are many other in the same line of thought. Honestly I see no other explanation.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#45

Is there also a power struggle between Shanghai and other political factions, with the civilian population caught in the middle? Oct 2021, https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/shanghai-gang-seeks-xi-jinpin... > those who understand the factionalism in China will appreciate the depth of the spillover to Hong Kong and therefore the rooting out that’s been taking place as a consequence ... power struggle with a rival politica…

This is indeed a much-speculated reason behind the heavy-handed lockdown (but without substantial proof either way, it’s anybody’s guess).

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#46
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once" Unfortunately evidence seems to indicate that everyone getting once is also not very effective, the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron. You can find lots of studies with different numbers but none of them are good. China's behaviour with respect to vaccines is very strange, they could mandate vaccination very easily, they…

> the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron So then what? Lockdowns forever? Vaccines are even worse than natural immunity. But the truth is your numbers aren't accurate. Someone who had covid and is reinfected is unlikely to go to the hospital - and that's the only thing that matters. Yes, they will get Omicron, but that doesn't matter. Vaccine or natural immunity (and get both if…

Do you have a citation for that? The data I'be seen suggests no reduction in severity due to previous infection.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget that China still tries for a zero covid strategy even with variants that are unlikely to overload the health system like Omicron. So whether it's Omicron or a new variant, their response would be the same. Sooner or later they'll have to open up like we did (and things are going just fine). But I think it's a PR issue, they've been preaching the zero covid so long.. They care a lot about their reputation…

The current omicron cases are already overloading the health system in Shanghai. and that are only about 5000 cases.

Starving people in their apartment buildings to prevent a collapse of the hospital system? The solution is worse than the problem. I'd rather be free in a city with no hospitals at all, than be imprisoned and starved in my own home for my 'protection.'

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#48
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron So then what? Lockdowns forever? Vaccines are even worse than natural immunity. But the truth is your numbers aren't accurate. Someone who had covid and is reinfected is unlikely to go to the hospital - and that's the only thing that matters. Yes, they will get Omicron, but that doesn't matter. Vaccine or natural immunity (and get both if…

Do you have a citation for that? The data I'be seen suggests no reduction in severity due to previous infection.

"Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death."

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120

It was literally the first hit on google. And it's well known that infection is much more protective than vaccination (although riskier).

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#49
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently you can't get out unless you have a business, student visa or permanent residence permit. The word is that tourist visa holders will be denied exit. Getting in is also very arduous.

I get the feeling that the public consciousness in the West may still be underestimating and excusing a dismal regime. Typically I hear, "but the CCP lifted a billion people out of poverty!"

The Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution, also achieved by the same party, put them at such an artificially low point it was impossible not to spring back impressively eventually.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, what I'm talking about is something else - people are being infected through the vaccine, and get a second breakthrough infection within a month of the first one. I don't know how widespread it is. Reinfections are generally milder than the first infection, but it's not the case every time. If we let the virus run through like wildfire and accumulate mutation after mutation as it runs through billions of hosts ev…

Is a scenario where we have to work from home a couple of times a year for a few days due to a mild infection really such a nightmare? Considering the constant lockdowns we'll need to prevent it, that sounds a lot worse tbh. Of course it's possible a dangerous strain will emerge but I think it's worth the risk.

There is a lot more that can be done besides lockdowns - we can have actually useful contact tracing and testing. There are tons of measures that can be implemented to reduce transmission. We're giving up on all of that.

Besides, viral infections are very damaging to the human body. An infection severe enough to knock you out for multiple days multiple times a year, on top of all the other disease we have, each time rolling the dice on long term side effects, is far worse than "work from home a couple of times a day".

If there is an only 5% rate of long term side effects (which is much less than it is at now), and you end up catching it twice a year, that means you're guaranteeing most people to suffer from long term side effects.

Not to mention, unless we're sending sick kids to school, parents will be in deep shit.

And on a personal preference level, I would much rather have a week or two of lockdown every year on average until we can develop a vaccine that can prevent reinfection and mutation or treatments and testing or w/e is needed to limit it, than to be guaranteed to get sick for a week or two at random times alone and risk severe long term effects every time.

Even the Chinese didn't have constant lockdowns. The majority of Chinese people didn't even see a single lockdown this year. If their government was competent enough to keep a basic surveillance testing regime the lockdown in Shanghai might have already been over.

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