An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown • Hacker News Board

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#251

Post by throwaway4good » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:48 PM UTC

Sol- wrote: post #171

Barrin92 wrote: post #145

Kind of crazy how sentimental and emotional the response is with barely any actual discussion going on about the merits of this on a grand scale. Yes, stories about people's dogs and temporary economic depression are awful. The larger picture is that China by pursuing these policies has stopped millions of deaths, probably tens of millions of cases of long term disabilities, and overall kept the economy going. It's w…

China may arguably have done a better job at the collective response to the virus than the west at the start of the pandemic (though with measures that probably wouldn't been seen as acceptable in liberal countries). So there they might have had reason to brag that their authoritarian system works "better", for some definition of better. But now their zero covid policy seem to be largely symbolic and to save face - y…

It seems like they are experimenting with a change in policy starting with Hong Kong. Probably not quite satisfied with the results.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#252

Post by philliphaydon » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:48 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #244

philliphaydon wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was no picture ID “ambassadors”. You either checked in using TraceTogether app, or your TraceTogether token. Before the app and token was mandatory you had to use your ID card. The reason my wife and I left after 10 years is security due to being rejected for PR and the company I work for laying off everyone to close the office. So we moved to Taiwan.

Even better was the government statement “TraceTogether is used for infection control and isolation only”. Then a year later they used it to solve a crime. When called out on the prior statement said “oh, well, we’d only use it for serious crimes”. They then pass a bill legalizing using it for criminal investigations.

Sounds good to me. Singapore is the only country you could walk around with 10k hanging out of your back pocket and no one will touch you.

Friend left their phone in mall bathroom and 4 hours later when she went back it was still there.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#253

Post by charlieyu1 » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:48 PM UTC

TomSwirly wrote: post #248

charlieyu1 wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are definitely suicides in lockdown, old people dying because of being refused entry to hospitals, starving etc. If you’re taking in account of weak fatality of Omicron I’m not sure which decision would have caused more deaths.

> weak fatality of Omicron In the US at least, Omicron has killed significantly more people than Delta. A somewhat lower mortality rate has been more than compensated for by a high infection rate. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/omicron-wav...

And you can’t delay it forever. An outbreak with come sooner or later unless you plan to lockdown till 2030.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#254

Post by smcl » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:49 PM UTC

somewhereoutth wrote: post #225

smcl wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's setting a pretty high bar for the author, no? They're locked inside their apartment building and can't really go out and start knocking on doors and surveying the population at large - in fact I think that would get them into trouble pretty quickly. So we don't have anything but conjecture and common sense (and various reports, videos posted elsewhere in these comments) to go on. I think it's pretty reasonable…

Given the bartering that seems to be going on, it sounds like the author has good connections with their neighbours, certainly enough to be aware of anyone actually starving - and I don't doubt they'd highlight specific cases in the article if they knew of any. A reasonable assumption is still an assumption, but it may be that there are additional support networks (formal or otherwise) to help those most at risk.

Yeah it seems they have some contact with their neighbours who would likely have similar means as them. They are not the vulnerable population we're talking about though.

But I am glad you agree it is the more reasonable assumption and therefore more likely to be reality than the alternative (that everyone's being taken care of and it's all fine).

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#255

Post by HWR_14 » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:49 PM UTC

bigDinosaur wrote: post #193

geraldyo wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think they wouldn't be able to keep you inside a house?

It'd be almost impossible to police, although you could in theory do it. An apartment building can have its main doors locked and bolted and guarded by a few police and that might trap hundreds of people.

I mean, house arrest is less about guarding the doors and more about catching people out on the streets. Plus, you'd secure the stores (which are deigned to be locked up) to discourage people if you wanted to lock up an American suburb.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#256

Post by floreen » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:51 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #212

mike_h wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly that logic doesn’t work here, though it’s tempting. There’s a portion of the population that refused vaccines, due to a combination of factors including misinformation. Omicron going wild would put millions of elderly people into the hospitals, jamming up the healthcare system and leading to millions more excess deaths.

China reports almost as high a vaccination rate as Singapore which has vaccinated 97% of its eligible population.

Yes, but mostly with CoronaVac and Sinopharm vaccines which apparently are not very effective against Omicron.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#257

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:51 PM UTC

mike_h wrote: post #219

ipaddr wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would not know what people are really thinking because sharing misery will land you in jail. Is that how separated mothers feel in lockdown jails?

That’s not how it works. Plenty of negative stuff shared online.

[deleted]

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#258

Post by lordnacho » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:54 PM UTC

ascar wrote: post #153

mensetmanusman wrote: post #112

A high school friend of ours is apartment-jailed in Shanghai right now. She is a young mom, and all the moms in the apartment are all out of everything required to care for babies. Trying to share strategies on how to use any kitchen ingredients to make formula or rash ointments… I wonder if this will actually have any political blowback in the coming years, or if this only strengthens the ccp.

Can you make formula from other ingredients? You can let a baby drink from another women's breast though. That's how they did it in the past, when a mother wasn't producing enough milk. It was an actual job called wet nurse [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_nurse

That other woman would need to eat something to make milk too. Plus she'd need to be recently pregnant.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#259

Post by mytailorisrich » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:54 PM UTC

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #229

Barrin92 wrote: post #145

Kind of crazy how sentimental and emotional the response is with barely any actual discussion going on about the merits of this on a grand scale. Yes, stories about people's dogs and temporary economic depression are awful. The larger picture is that China by pursuing these policies has stopped millions of deaths, probably tens of millions of cases of long term disabilities, and overall kept the economy going. It's w…

It is likely lockdowns achieve very little, only delaying the inevitable surge of cases and deaths for a later date. Also, they lie about their numbers. Locked down population with restructed internet access and no independent media can lose 50% to an epidemy and we'll know nothing.

Lockdowns achieve exactly what they are meant to achieve: they stop the spread of disease.

This is mainly aimed at avoiding uncontrolled surges and collapse of the healthcare system and is effective for that.

However, indeed, this must be 'step 1' and combined with a broader strategy of vaccination and controlled exposure to the virus otherwise you only end up with an infinite cycle of lockdowns.

One issue in China is that although their vaccines do help they are much less effective at preventing infections than, say, Pfizer and Moderna, or AZ.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#260

Post by rajin444 » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:55 PM UTC

mike_h wrote: post #192

gitfan86 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-official-says-h... Things don't get better from here.

Sounds like they’re only advocating incremental improvements to the current policy? Compare China death rates over the pandemic to basically anywhere else. If saving 5-10 million lives (estimated based on % of US population lost to Covid) doesn’t count as working, what would?

We should be able to weight the cost of saving those lives vs the harm caused to those who would otherwise be fine. If we don’t have those numbers I don’t think we can define what worked and what didn’t.

Just looking at raw lives saved (especially when most of those lives are older than average age of death) is too simplistic.