An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown • Hacker News Board

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#181

Post by mike_h » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:06 PM UTC

Sol- wrote: post #171

Barrin92 wrote: post #145

Kind of crazy how sentimental and emotional the response is with barely any actual discussion going on about the merits of this on a grand scale. Yes, stories about people's dogs and temporary economic depression are awful. The larger picture is that China by pursuing these policies has stopped millions of deaths, probably tens of millions of cases of long term disabilities, and overall kept the economy going. It's w…

China may arguably have done a better job at the collective response to the virus than the west at the start of the pandemic (though with measures that probably wouldn't been seen as acceptable in liberal countries). So there they might have had reason to brag that their authoritarian system works "better", for some definition of better. But now their zero covid policy seem to be largely symbolic and to save face - y…

Sadly that logic doesn’t work here, though it’s tempting. There’s a portion of the population that refused vaccines, due to a combination of factors including misinformation. Omicron going wild would put millions of elderly people into the hospitals, jamming up the healthcare system and leading to millions more excess deaths.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#182

Post by dirtyid » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:06 PM UTC

Sol- wrote: post #171

Barrin92 wrote: post #145

Kind of crazy how sentimental and emotional the response is with barely any actual discussion going on about the merits of this on a grand scale. Yes, stories about people's dogs and temporary economic depression are awful. The larger picture is that China by pursuing these policies has stopped millions of deaths, probably tens of millions of cases of long term disabilities, and overall kept the economy going. It's w…

China may arguably have done a better job at the collective response to the virus than the west at the start of the pandemic (though with measures that probably wouldn't been seen as acceptable in liberal countries). So there they might have had reason to brag that their authoritarian system works "better", for some definition of better. But now their zero covid policy seem to be largely symbolic and to save face - y…

Zero covid seems to be working in Jilin an Shenyang lockdowns - about 15m after a month. SH fucked up by thinking they could pull of dynamic zero. Too many financial interests and tier1 entitlement thinking not to tempt it. Not mandating vaxxing among elderly was a mistake. CCP not authoritarian when it should be.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#183

Post by simonh » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:06 PM UTC

ascar wrote: post #153

mensetmanusman wrote: post #112

A high school friend of ours is apartment-jailed in Shanghai right now. She is a young mom, and all the moms in the apartment are all out of everything required to care for babies. Trying to share strategies on how to use any kitchen ingredients to make formula or rash ointments… I wonder if this will actually have any political blowback in the coming years, or if this only strengthens the ccp.

Can you make formula from other ingredients? You can let a baby drink from another women's breast though. That's how they did it in the past, when a mother wasn't producing enough milk. It was an actual job called wet nurse [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_nurse

Wet nurses need to be already lactating mothers, not just any woman. Also in a strict lockdown how are you going to get a wet nurse to visit you?

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#184

Post by smcl » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:07 PM UTC

somewhereoutth wrote: post #166

smcl wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes the author cannot freely choose their recipes and was able to buy three fish: > a good ‘catch’ for what we can still buy on delivery apps But they're able to work from home, likely wealthy and well resourced. They also mention this: > we’re lucky — many people (because of the nature of their job) cannot and see their bank account go to zero, or their own business go bankrupt If you can't work, earn money and (the…

Again, the author conjectures that people may starve, but provides no evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, that people are starving.

That's setting a pretty high bar for the author, no? They're locked inside their apartment building and can't really go out and start knocking on doors and surveying the population at large - in fact I think that would get them into trouble pretty quickly. So we don't have anything but conjecture and common sense (and various reports, videos posted elsewhere in these comments) to go on.

I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that if there are people who are not able to earn money and there's spotty food provisions from the state, that people will be starving.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#185

Post by theshrike79 » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:07 PM UTC

dmarchand90 wrote: post #179

Barrin92 wrote: post #145

Kind of crazy how sentimental and emotional the response is with barely any actual discussion going on about the merits of this on a grand scale. Yes, stories about people's dogs and temporary economic depression are awful. The larger picture is that China by pursuing these policies has stopped millions of deaths, probably tens of millions of cases of long term disabilities, and overall kept the economy going. It's w…

I really don't understand why a country where (on average, from Google) every citizen has received 2+ vaccinations there should still be such a strict policy

China's government didn't want the western-made mRNA vaccine. They lobbied and propagandised HARD against it.

Now Omicron hit and their own non-mRNA vaccines don't work. And even if they did, people still believe the propaganda that mRNA is bad for you.

Hard lockdowns are their only tool.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#186

Post by gitfan86 » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:07 PM UTC

mike_h wrote: post #177

gitfan86 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The emotional response of the people living in China is very relevant to the effectiveness of the collectivist policies. If they continue down the path of CovidZero in the face of evidence that it is not going to work and will only cause economic and emotional pain to the population, it highlights one of the major downsides to collectivist policies. They cannot adapt because they have a culture that looks down on any…

Where is the evidence that it didn’t work?

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-official-says-h...

Things don't get better from here.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#187

Post by Canada » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:08 PM UTC

mike_h wrote: post #161

I’m in Shanghai too. It’s a city of 25+ million people: there will be some bad stories. But overall it is running remarkably and the vast majority of people aren’t thinking about how oppressed they are by having to eat fish. They’re helping each other and encouraging each other, because they know the cost of not doing this is millions of lives.

Really? How come it didn't cost millions of lives elsewhere that didn't impose such strict rules?

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#188

Post by ipaddr » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:09 PM UTC

mike_h wrote: post #173

kyrra wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China also likely lies about their numbers so it's not likely we'd know the real death count. According to their stats, they had covid 4 covid deaths in all of 2021. This puts them at the number 2 best results spot. The issue here being that all the top stats spots for least deaths are from island countries, which china is not.

China is on Earth, not in some other solar system. If their excess deaths per capita were a fraction of the numbers in the West, there would be no way to hide it.

The easiest way to hide it is to report death was caused for another reason. If someone like yourself is going to take their numbers at face value they have already hidden it.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#189

Post by ceilingcorner » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:09 PM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #145

Kind of crazy how sentimental and emotional the response is with barely any actual discussion going on about the merits of this on a grand scale. Yes, stories about people's dogs and temporary economic depression are awful. The larger picture is that China by pursuing these policies has stopped millions of deaths, probably tens of millions of cases of long term disabilities, and overall kept the economy going. It's w…

Yes well that’s the issue with utilitarianism and any other calculated ethical system. You can always justify some horrible things by saying “but we saved X more lives.”

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#190

Post by Noumenon72 » Sat, Apr 09, 2022, 1:10 PM UTC

0des wrote: post #117

urthor wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a percentage it wasn't high. Dozens I think? Maybe 100 jumpers out of 3000 deaths? In the worst situation imaginable. I call that an endorsement for humanity's innate desire to grasp at life.

> as a percentage Buddy I don't even know where to start here, while being polite.

This is basic numeracy. Looking at several instances of something and asking "Is that a lot?" It was many more suicides than you have seen on an average day but it may be a surprisingly small number given the situation. Percentage is a tool to help you ask "did the many incidents I heard about represent what most people there experienced, or not?"