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Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#161

Post by pixl97 »

randomdata wrote: post #76
prostoalex wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it Are they? Fertilizer prices are up 3x-5x, depending on where you look, due to Russian export restrictions, so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest. Planting reports have only started trickling in, so we don't have a good global view of what has been planted in spring 2022.

> so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest. If you play your cards right, and Mother Nature plays nice, this could be the most profitable year of farming seen in a long time. Costs are up, yes, but the income potential is up even more. Why would anyone choose this year, of all years, to "give the soil a rest"?

With the high temps at the poles this year already. I have my doubts that Mother Nature is going to play nice.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#162

Post by pixl97 »

ineedasername wrote: post #138
KarlKemp wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone else is wondering, the largest ships carry 300,000 DTW, which is 300,000,000 kg each of which has 3400 kCal. Daily caloric intake of 2,000 may be suitable average, meaning that one ship can supply all energy needs for 1.5 million people and one year. (3700 * 300000 * 1000) / (365 * 2000)

Keep in mind that grains are not only used for human consumption though. It's also used for animals. Egypt has 10M cattle alone [1] and a 1,000lb animal needs roughly 7x the calories as a person. [2] So that same largest cargo ship will only feed about ~200,000 cattle, requiring 50 such ships to feed the cattle population. They produce about 1.8 billion heads of poultry [3], and in total only about 1/3 of their anima…

I mean, that is just an advertisement to reduce meat production and focus on starch based calories for humans rather than supplying to inefficient meat production.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#163

Post by missedthecue »

jelliclesfarm wrote: post #149
stubish wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are far, far too many people in Egypt. Egypt has had plans for decades to irrigate large parts of the desert to help solve the problem, but so far it hasn't gotten much further than the planning stages.

Egypt gets most of its food aid from Saudi. Saudi is entirely reliant on wheat imports and tried to grow wheat in the desert to no avail. In the past decade, Egypt has been reliant from Saudi, UAE and Kuwait. This has always been so.

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia produces 2.5 million tons of wheat annually, enough to meet domestic demand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL08699206

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#164

Post by confidantlake »

pixl97 wrote: post #160
Robotbeat wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trucks. Lots and lots of trucks.

Not sure about the EU, but the US has a massive truck driver shortage already.

Is there really a shortage or are salaries just not high enough to attract candidates?

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#165

Post by throwaway6532 »

cs702 wrote: post #78

A 1% decline in supply can have an enormous impact on price, because price is set at each instant by the marginal buyer and seller. For every 100 buyers (people) used to buying (eating) wheat every day, there is now only enough wheat for 99, on average. Wheat prices will therefore rise until 1 out of every 100 buyers cannot afford to buy their usual daily purchase of wheat. On average.

>A 1% decline in supply can have an enormous impact on price, because price is set at each instant by the marginal buyer and seller.

I think this is where "elastic" vs "inelastic" demand makes a big difference.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#166

Post by throwaway6532 »

FrenchAmerican wrote: post #129
snowwrestler wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author does not say everything is fine, she says the public focus is in the wrong place. We don’t need more wheat, we need changes in shipping. We need to fund logistics, not planting.

Or maybe we need to stop relying on globalized markets for vital production. A country is really sovereign if it produces enough food for its own population. One of the main reason of the food dependency of Northern African countries is ... the EU policies. Huge amounts of public money are given to farmers each year so that their selling prices are competitive on the global markets. Those global prices are lower than…

It's also stunning to think about how many people legit rely on humanitarian aid to stay alive, and if things break down to the point where that starts to dry up then that has a big effect on those populations.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#168

Post by jelliclesfarm »

missedthecue wrote: post #163
jelliclesfarm wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Egypt gets most of its food aid from Saudi. Saudi is entirely reliant on wheat imports and tried to grow wheat in the desert to no avail. In the past decade, Egypt has been reliant from Saudi, UAE and Kuwait. This has always been so.

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia produces 2.5 million tons of wheat annually, enough to meet domestic demand. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL08699206

That article is dated 2008. Since 2016, they stopped all wheat production in Saudi Arabia.

From the same 2008 article: https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL08699206

[..] The kingdom aims to rely entirely on imports by 2016.

"The reason is water resources," said one official, who did not want to be identified.[..]

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/15070-saudi-arabias-whe... - 2021 article

There is a lot of chatter about abundance and technology..but the harsh truth that everyone ..esp those whose voices get amplified ..is avoiding is that we simply don’t have enough sustainable and renewable resources to feed 8 billion.

When the expected depopulation curve occurs in 2050ish, hopefully we wouldn’t have depleted all our natural resources because in the next 100 years, there will be far fewer humans and not enough resources to sustain them.

We have far surpassed carrying capacity. The world can bear about 1-3 billion max. Instead of trying to breed ourselves to extinction and stripping the world of natural resources by running faster to stay in the same place, we should focus on life extension and preservation of human genetic material for future propogation and perpetuation of the human species. It’s the smart thing to do.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#169

Post by thehappypm »

cs702 wrote: post #78

A 1% decline in supply can have an enormous impact on price, because price is set at each instant by the marginal buyer and seller. For every 100 buyers (people) used to buying (eating) wheat every day, there is now only enough wheat for 99, on average. Wheat prices will therefore rise until 1 out of every 100 buyers cannot afford to buy their usual daily purchase of wheat. On average.

Wheat doesn’t strike me as hugely inelastic. There are lots of alternatives. Sure, bread makers might pay double for wheat, but won’t a consumer just switch to potato bread or go for rice or mashed potatoes instead ? Ultimately the end consumer feeds the consumption engine, and they’re price sensitive especially when there are tons of alternatives.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#170

Post by thehappypm »

log1_aa wrote: post #152

I do not agree with the author's analysis - the impact on supply and demand are enormous, and the 1% number does not matter. Effectively, the wheat buyer in Egypt (and other importers) needs to pay high enough prices such that: 1. Industrial wheat consumers in Europe/US and elsewhere substitute wheat with other products, making more wheat available for exports. 2. Previously untapped stocks get exported instead of st…

How do you argue that wheat demand is inelastic? Demand for food as a whole is inelastic, but wheat is just one of many, many food sources. Wheat is a cheap food. The second is stops becoming cheap people will shift to other cheap foods like rice or potatoes. I see a more modest increase in demand for alternatives that pulls all prices up, but it’s hard to see how prices skyrocket.
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