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Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#21

Post by bell-cot »

pempem wrote: post #14
awb wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author frames the problem less as a wheat production problem and more as a shipping problem. > Again, specific places are facing EXTREMELY REAL wheat supply problems. MENA usually sources from Ukraine. Switching supply chains to India & other sources takes extra time, & if they're further away from India and Ukraine, it takes longer for supplies to get there. FYI, MENA = Middle East / North Africa > What these pl…

A sincere question: Would it not then be helpful to support these new or temporary supply chains as a war effort? Shouldn't that fall under humanitarian aid?

If the shortages are in rail lines, grain elevators, shipping terminals, bulk cargo ships, etc...no sort of "support" can create those at all quickly.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#22

Post by 01100011 »

I read this thread a couple days ago and managed to get through it despite the annoying tone.

I think the author is correct now (for the current and upcoming crops) but I worry they're failing to account for larger systemic issues like fertilizer price spikes (and yes I read their fertilizer thread as well), currency issues (inflation, logistics of precursors) and while they acknowledge the shipping issues can kill people they sort of hand wave over it.

I'll admit I'm old and generally just get mad at ideas that challenge my assumptions, but after reading this I'm not ready to believe everything is fine. You have a country torn apart by a war that seems far from over, massive reorganizing of the global supply chain to cut out Russia, and world economic instability as we seemingly hasten the weakening of the USD. The author raises good points but I don't believe everything is fine.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#23

Post by groby_b »

csee wrote: post #16

I quickly googled what the annual wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia are and got a much bigger number than the tweet suggests.

You might want to (much less quickly) figure out what percentage of their exports is affected by their war, how the war & sanctions affect transportation & trade partners, and what the end result of that is.

Nobody has stopped exports completely. Nobody has stopped planting wheat.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#25

Post by bell-cot »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #17
ginko wrote: post #3

That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...

As an aside, I found that fascinating that Egypt is such a huge grain importer. In the ancient world, Egypt was one of the largest grain producers and basically fed the Roman Empire.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt#Vital_st...

Looks like the population went from ~15.4M in 1934 to ~100.5M in 2020. I'd bet that neither the area devoted to agriculture, nor the productivity (per unit area) increased by anything resembling that ~553% increase.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#26

Post by snowwrestler »

01100011 wrote: post #22

I read this thread a couple days ago and managed to get through it despite the annoying tone. I think the author is correct now (for the current and upcoming crops) but I worry they're failing to account for larger systemic issues like fertilizer price spikes (and yes I read their fertilizer thread as well), currency issues (inflation, logistics of precursors) and while they acknowledge the shipping issues can kill p…

The author does not say everything is fine, she says the public focus is in the wrong place. We don’t need more wheat, we need changes in shipping. We need to fund logistics, not planting.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#27

Post by mentalpiracy »

lambic2 wrote: post #20

I don't understand why she mentions "most of the world plants wheat in the fall" if, as far as I understand, Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring. Since 1) we're in the middle of their planting season 2) Ukraine produced 40 million tons of wheat last year 3) Given the current situation it's very hard to predict how much wheat will be successfully produced this year - It looks like the majority of farmers won't be…

If you read two tweets down the thread, she explains that Ukraine is a winter wheat producer. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and harvested in spring-summer.

It has already been planted.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#28

Post by 01100011 »

groby_b wrote: post #23
csee wrote: post #16

I quickly googled what the annual wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia are and got a much bigger number than the tweet suggests.

You might want to (much less quickly) figure out what percentage of their exports is affected by their war, how the war & sanctions affect transportation & trade partners, and what the end result of that is. Nobody has stopped exports completely. Nobody has stopped planting wheat.

How much of the capacity is affected by:

- manpower shortages due to war

- infrastructure destruction (roads, ports, etc)

- cropland destruction

- higher fuel prices

- higher fertilizer prices

- regional weather fluctuations

I see many towns in Ukraine are destroyed or emptied of people. I don't suppose farms in those towns will be producing anything this year.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#30

Post by prostoalex »

mooreds wrote: post #4
ginko wrote: post #3

That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...

If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?

> and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it

Are they? Fertilizer prices are up 3x-5x, depending on where you look, due to Russian export restrictions, so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest.

Planting reports have only started trickling in, so we don't have a good global view of what has been planted in spring 2022.

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