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Crypto is an unproductive bubble

alexkolchinski.com

341–350 of 539 posts

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#341

If it's a bubble, it's a pretty lousy one in terms of returns. Some energy stocks were up 100-1000% a week ago due to surging oil prices. And then some SPACs were up 500%. Some guy on reddit's wallstreetbets recently turned $17k into $600k with amazon call options. I never seen anyone make those kind of returns with crypto...just guys with tiny Binance or Coinbase accounts who are happy to make 20% from a $1000 initi…

I don't understand the logic of claiming that something isn't a bubble because other some other class of assets is even more volatile.

Was the housing bubble a lousy one just because home prices didn't go up 100% per year?

> Some guy on reddit's wallstreetbets recently turned $17k into $600k with amazon call options.

This is just gambling. If you are open to extreme risk, you can make plays like this on anything. It doesn't mean there is or isn't a bubble.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#342

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> With crypto, a software flaw used to steal crypto can kill an entire company.

This is mainly with Smart Contracts or Hot Wallet Storage specifically. A bug in a Smart Contract can be detrimental considering that it's code is immutable. A Hot Wallet could be misconfigured or exploited by a remote attacker. This is why it's important to use cold storage methods for larger amounts of funds, typically using a paper wallet, or even memorizing the seed phrase as a last resort. If you're an institution, then you should be employing institutional level security (though, I don't really see this happening as often as it should). You can even employ segregated witness to divy the funds amongst contract holders.

> They're largely powerless to stop it once the transaction has gone through

That's pretty much the entire point. This isn't a bug. It's a feature. It's up to the end user to determine the execution of the transfer of value from one to another on the ledger. The ledger can only ever be written to; making it immutable.

> With crypto, a xss attack or a misplaced password can cost me all of my coins.

I mean, this can happen anyways, even with the current system. If you get phished, click on a redirect, execute a payload locally, or whatever. Not really sure how this is even considered a cryptocurrency specific issue; It's a fairly universal issue as it is already. Also, you're more likely to see something like this with anything utilizing a Smart Contract.

> With crypto, I have to triple check the address I'm sending coins to because I can't undo it.

Well, not if you're using QR Codes. Remember those? They've been around for awhile. I would do this with my Account and Routing numbers if I'm wiring money or setting up a direct deposit regardless. I find my self checking the numbers to make sure I get paid. Even though the bank can reverse it, it would still be a pain. Knowing I can't reverse a crypto tx makes me a bit on edge, yes. It's, again, a feature... not a bug. If you have that much doubt with a transaction, then you should be using QR Codes instead. I personally find them to be convenient. Otherwise, I'm putting the public address in my clipboard and pasting it and then checking the first 6 and last 6 hex symbols. If they match, I'm happy.

> With crypto, I have to spend what's sometimes a significant amount of money just to complete a transaction, and transactions can take minutes or hours to complete.

The more congested the base layer of the network becomes, the more likely the fees are to be driven up. Bitcoin has a side-chain called the Lightening Network to mitigate this while focusing on processing micro-transactions. You can basically send 10 Sats for the cost of 1 sat. Some tx are basically free because of how the network is setup. With Ethereum, the base layer can process upto about 15 tx/s. Bitcoin is about 7 tx/s. Lightening can process up to 100k+ tx/s. That's 4 times the speed of either Visa or Mastercard. If you're executing a smart contract on the Eth network, then things can get expensive because you're using gwei as gas to execute the smart contract which is used to deter bad actors from abusing the EVM. Solana can process a 50 tx in about 500 ms which is impressive to be honest.

> I think there's a future in crypto but we're in the dotcom boom days of it where most of the value is in speculation (and I suppose illegal purchases on the darknet). I'll wait for crypto 2.0.

Less than 2% of crpyto is used for criminal activity and that's mainly because you can get caught using it. A lot of people believe that it's completely anonymous when it's not. You're usually KYC'd somewhere and the only way to avoid this is to do direct p2p transaction without having it linking back to something that's tracable. Bitcoin is a criminals worst nightmare simply because it's a public ledger which anyone can audit.

> their usage as currency will be limited unless the inefficiency problem is solved.

This is common point that's brought up as well and was in the article. In PoW, this inefficiency is not a problem. It's Bitcoins network security to maintain it's own decentralization. It's the base layer and you can build on top of it to address the transaction speed as well as the network congestion; Lightning Network being a prime example of this as a potential Layer 1 solution to Bitcoins Layer 0 solution.

I feel like alot of people are missing the forest for the trees. I've done my research. Have you?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People won't transact on chain. Paypal et. al. will allow people to make bitcoin denominated transactions and will settle with other payment processors on chain. That gives the average consumer access to the kinds of protections they are used to.

So the average consumer is back to trusting a central authority (PayPal)? Then what’s the point, for the end user, of the blockchain in the first place?

It's just another choice people can make. If it suits them to denominate their transactions and stores of currency in bitcoin they can, if they wish. If they don't trust pay pal there will be countless other payment processors with varying levels of decentralization to suit whatever needs they have. If they don't like bitcoin they can use dollars, euros, doge whatever.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#344

Not convinced. I think we are still in a rather early phase of the hype cycle where people explore possible uses of the technology. What makes it difficult to think about "crypto" is a certain disillusionment around Bitcoin and similar efforts and the fact that people think the ideology behind Bitcoin etc. should also apply to all other possible uses. But they are confusing crypto in general with a certain applicatio…

Good luck with your investment, you will need it. #wallstreetbets

Thanks for proving my point just five minutes after my post. What makes it difficult to discuss crypto is that people usually mean bitcoin etc. But that's just a single application.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#345
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Banks won’t protect you from wire fraud either. I’ve written this elsewhere when this topic routinely comes up and crypto is dismissed, but the capability of self-custody is the thing to pay attention to. Nothing else has this capability to the same extent. Today we store most of our wealth in assets (market index funds, stocks, real estate, etc.) and some (typically very little, and rarely outside of a bank account)…

This is typical crypto-hype. Notice that although many points are raised, it doesn’t address the direct objections of the previous post. Obfuscate, misdirect, and confuse the marks.

Crypto transactions are no less reversible than ACH or wire transfers. The warm fuzzy feeling you have about ACH is you have a trusted third party intermediary that contractually or legally guarantees they will give you the same amount of currency back under certain conditions. If something goes wrong with that ACH/wire transfer and you don't get your money back, you'll have to sue, just like you would crypto.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#346
post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion. Of course the two approaches will be different.

Is the difference in the approaches that one is actually successful and useful?

Maybe they both are, but in different ways, like mocroservices vs a monolith. Some applications are just better on one platform than another, and vice versa.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#347
post #52
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the other things you mentioned are collectibles. They're either rare, non-fungible or completely one-of-a-kind and therefore fought over in the niche markets in which they trade. Gold is a commodity with genuine industrial uses, and ingrained appeal to humans through thousands of years of being adorned and traded as jewelry. Sure, it's been diminished, we have so many materials now that can be used industrial…

That is circular reasoning. Bitcoin is also a collectable, with a fixed number of them (21 million) out there to collect. Every investment we are talking about is only rare because the community that participates in it has decided they are rare. Otherwise there is nothing stopping me from taking a picture of a piece of art or trading card and reproducing it a million times.

> Bitcoin is also a collectable, with a fixed number of them (21 million) out there to collect.

Bitcoin is fungible, unlike collectibles. There is no value to holding one bitcoin vs another, if "different bitcoins" even makes sense as a concept.

It can also be subdivided, so it is more accurate to say that there are 21 trillion units that will be out there.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#348
post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

> Credit cards companies charge businesses that allow consumers to use them a fee. Business often pass this fee on to the consumer, sometimes even explicitly. For example gas stations usually publish separate prices for gas w/ or w/o credit card. That fee is the main revenue source for the credit card company, and fraud reimbursement is one of their expenses. Expenses go up? Fees go up. In this way businesses (and le…

I'm really arguing for discourse, not one side or the other. I've used charge backs multiple times.

But after thinking about it a while I realized that I've probably paid more in this hidden premium than I've recovered from reimbursement. Until COVID hit and I had to refute multi thousand dollar plane tickets that were never able to be used. Will I have paid more for the premium or less by the end of my life? No idea.

What it ultimately comes down to is the value, role, and scope of insurance. That's a massive debate of its own.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#349
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, AI mostly. Let's just say I thought it was interesting but not worth pursuing. I just re-checked. It was actually 2009 sorry.

Prove it. There are other 2009 era bitcoiners here who can vouch if you were there. The community was known in 2009. My x to doubt is because nobody claims to have “been in blockchain since 2008” it’s a give away that your talking trash. The Genesis block date was Jan 3rd 2009. You were talking to satoshi about Bitcoin pre launch?

I can't of course. If I still had that wallet.. I'm not really a "true crypto believer" though.

I do have this from 2014:

Project Proposal: Data Rental using the Ethereum Blockchain, Spetember 2014

https://imgur.com/a/XLo2P3Z

If you know the history of Ethereum you'll know that is pretty early.

I was on the old "decentralization" Yahoo mailing list and the p2p mailing list back in the early 2000's too. If you can find an archive (which I can't!) you can check my background there.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#350
post #196
post #32

Another point I’d add: isn’t it telling that we haven’t come up with use cases for crypto that aren’t in some way speculation in the last decade plus?

What other way do you have to do this? First sentence of the Bitcoin whitepaper: "A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution."

Except that's a lie because you need a middleman to process the transaction (mining group). And in reality it ends up having another company like coinbase in the middle as well. So now you're in a worse position than before.

Actual cash moves quite easily.

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