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Crypto is an unproductive bubble

alexkolchinski.com

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Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#321

Post by ThinBold »

30367286 wrote: post #306
tippytippytango wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People won't transact on chain. Paypal et. al. will allow people to make bitcoin denominated transactions and will settle with other payment processors on chain. That gives the average consumer access to the kinds of protections they are used to.

So the average consumer is back to trusting a central authority (PayPal)? Then what’s the point, for the end user, of the blockchain in the first place?

You get to choose between out-sourcing the liability or naked-running. You can even linearly-interpolate between the two extremes. In case of banking, you already payed the hidden fee (banks get bailout using government money, aka your money)

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#322

Post by grog454 »

vel0city wrote: post #316
grog454 wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

So your alternative of the fraud insurance we currently have is to just end fraud? You sound like Gov. Abbott. Don't worry about abortion in the case of rape, we'll just get rid of rape. Why didn't we just think of that before? Just get rid of crime, and there won't be any problems!

> So your alternative of the fraud insurance we currently have is to just end fraud?

I left that little blurb about reducing fraud at the end of that post because I was trying to anticipate the (shallow) counter-argument: "what's the alternative"? "End"ing fraud, by the way, would be a great alternative to the implicit insurance premium we pay if it was at all viable.

To give you some examples of what "more effort in to the prevention of theft/fraud" looks like cf: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43925.pdf

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#324

Post by dropnerd »

tobz1000 wrote: post #294

> any use of blockchain technology in which the ledger is not self-contained [is unusable because] there can be no trust-free link between the ledger and the physical world. Sure, data would need to be verified by a trusted party when it's first entered. A blockchain still protects against forgery after this though.

if it's a hardened blockchain like ethereum, it also protects against actors who'll insist that they never said x. the blockchain is forever

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#325

Post by effancy »

tippytippytango wrote: post #319

Nothing in here that hasn't been said in the last 10 year. It's tempting to dismiss it as a bubble. But; most bubbles don't get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th... etc. chances. Every time bitcoin crashes people say "this one is different, this time it's dead for real", then it bounces back. It's proving to be far more cockroach like than anyone anticipated. In the more distant future, if bitcoin survives, its utility will just be…

Keep on dreaming. The reason why he has no new arguments is that the case is clear and simple.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#326

Post by jackvalentine »

Osiris wrote: post #320
pavlov wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU created and deployed instant zero-cost 24/7 bank transfers while crypto was twiddling its thumbs talking about “early days” and puffing out PoW carbon. If even the European Union moves faster than your cutting-edge decentralized system, maybe you have a problem.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion. Of course the two approaches will be different.

Is the difference in the approaches that one is actually successful and useful?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#327

Post by [deleted] »

Osiris wrote: post #320
pavlov wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU created and deployed instant zero-cost 24/7 bank transfers while crypto was twiddling its thumbs talking about “early days” and puffing out PoW carbon. If even the European Union moves faster than your cutting-edge decentralized system, maybe you have a problem.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion. Of course the two approaches will be different.

[deleted]

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#328

Post by takeda »

grog454 wrote: post #299
jmcgough wrote: post #19

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

> Credit cards companies charge businesses that allow consumers to use them a fee. Business often pass this fee on to the consumer, sometimes even explicitly. For example gas stations usually publish separate prices for gas w/ or w/o credit card. That fee is the main revenue source for the credit card company, and fraud reimbursement is one of their expenses. Expenses go up? Fees go up. In this way businesses (and less directly you) are paying an insurance premium on top of the credit card company's operating costs and profit margin.

With bitcoin you have both: high fees and no fraud protection.

> Credit card companies most likely write fraud reimbursement off when filing taxes. So taxes that they would otherwise pay vanish. If the taxing entity wants a minimum tax revenue, that means increased rates elsewhere (and quite possibly for individuals).

So what you saying this is better, because when fraud happens you (an individual) can't deduct it from your taxes?

I think the arguments are very weak, much stronger would be that government can't supposedly stop you from paying or receiving payments, but they still can do it in other ways (like prevent converting the money or physically get you).

I think though that (at least for me) ability to reverse charge to stop fraud is more valuable than the above.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#329

Post by stewbrew »

Not convinced. I think we are still in a rather early phase of the hype cycle where people explore possible uses of the technology. What makes it difficult to think about "crypto" is a certain disillusionment around Bitcoin and similar efforts and the fact that people think the ideology behind Bitcoin etc. should also apply to all other possible uses. But they are confusing crypto in general with a certain application.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#330

Post by hackernewds »

chasil wrote: post #308
pavlov wrote: post #302

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure…

This is a major problem. Without redesign, this falls on "q-day". https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/post-quantum-cryptography/rou... "Formal complaint regarding 8 June 2021 incident - 2021.06.15, Daniel J. Bernstein "Executive summary. A week ago Dr. Daniel Apon from NIST publicly accused me of professional misconduct. Specifically, he accused me of initiating private contact with NIST so as to provide false information…

Never heard of this. Is this a bot comment? the link doesn't indicate how this fail on a so called q-day
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