Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

americanpurpose.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 225 posts

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#161

Post by phtrivier »

pphysch wrote: post #104
phtrivier wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"surrendering" is really not aanywhere in the spectrum in USA, historically. And, even though the "splitting and surviving" compromise seems almost inevitable to me, I have no idea how long it will take. And I can't blame all parties (Russia / Ukraine / EU / NATO) for trying to "buy time" and reach the négociation table in the best possible situation. I can imagine Putin would have preferred rolling over Kyiv, then n…

Total nonsense. Putin is not going to bomb Lviv, much less Estonia or Finland.

I agree that Lviv seems western enough to be spared bombing (since I assume Putin just want the east, and the attention over Kyiv.)

Yeah, sure, Finland is fine, as soon as Putin would laid a hand on it, there would be a strong response from... Oh, wait no one.

But Estonia, yeah, sure, NATO would jump to trigger WWWIII over Tallin. I can already picture Joe Biden explaining to US voters why they'll have to deal with a nuclear war because of the Baltics. Also, that the Baltics exist.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#162

Post by disk0 »

nickpinkston wrote: post #82
slim wrote: post #13

this guy is a fortune teller. the nerve he has is incredible. still predicting the future from a future he predicted would never exist in his book "the end of history"

Yea, that was my first thought too. Now I'm expecting him to write: "The End of the End of the End of History".

"The End of the End of History"[0] is a thing, so it's only a matter of time now for his response /s

[0]: https://bungacast.com/book/

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#163

Post by phtrivier »

rayiner wrote: post #129
phtrivier wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macron is definitely more right-wing than might have been expected five years ago. That being said, even with the largest possible definition of "populist", he hardly qualifies. The most likely outcome of this election round (president + assembly) is a macron presidency with an "official" right-wing coalition of macron's party with the most "centrist" part of the right wing. Very run of the mill stuff. And populists…

I’m not saying he’s a populist, I’m saying that the populists have scored a significant victory by pushing him to the right on cultural issues even if he ultimately wins reelection.

Ok, my bad. I would argue that the populists pushed the "classic right" to the right, more than they did macron ; but that's fair to say they pushed everyone. (Thanks cnews..)

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#164

Post by gumby »

> The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.

While a majority of states voted to condemn the invasion, the countries that voted to let it happen represent a majority of the world's population (it wasn't just India and China; there was widespread support in Africa, for example).

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#165

Post by gumby »

hackerfromthefu wrote: post #155
burntoutfire wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why people are calling these tactics "medieval". The same tactics were also widely used in XX century, e.g. in siege of Leningrad, during the pacification of Warsaw Uprising or in Jugoslavia war in 1990s. They're part of the "total war" package that is and always was on the table for leaders determined to win at all costs (or are just seeking revenge - let's not forget that the Alies burned hundred…

Because apparently modern US warfare doctrine and smarter guided weapons causes less civilian casualties.

In the end so many targeted munitions are fired that the final result is the same as conventional bombardment.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#166

Post by gumby »

c-smile wrote: post #14

The Great Delusion (2020) by prof. John Mearsheimer: https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU That if someone really wants to understand where we are with all those Libya, Syria, Iraq, ... Ukraine. And how and when this one really started: https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc As of Francis Fukuyama predictions... I am Ukrainian by myself. With family spread over West Ukraine and Russia East. Note: Russia is the second country after Ukra…

Mearsheimer's getting a lot of airplay right now, but his analysis is straight out of the 19th century "great game" -- Ukraine is hardly even mentioned. His reasoning is all about the territorial conflicts of the "great powers".

In reality Russia is a small, poor, and mostly irrelevant state, mainly getting airtime because it has nukes. Without the nukes it would be taken as seriously as other countries of its economic clout, like Australia. Which is to say, not taken seriously at all.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#167

Post by gumby »

All this discussion of the "endgame" (not just Fukuyama of course, and he at least is worth listening to).

But what's the endgame after the endgame? A "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine is a likely possibility. But a Marshall Plan for Russia, who will need it almost as much? Unlikely.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#168

Post by pavlov »

frozencell wrote: post #154
pavlov wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would that even work? Do you expect dying soldiers to bravely sign "I am dead" blockchain transactions with their private keys?

Electrocardiography (ECG or EKG). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart_rate_monitor

And how do you verify the data?

I know you were probably joking, but this is such a common pattern in proposed crypto use cases:

  1) Collect some data
  2) ??
  3) The blockchain has magically ensured the data is true!
Whether it's supply chains or property records or war casualties, crypto does absolutely nothing to prevent people from lying.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#169

Post by hackerfromthefu »

gumby wrote: post #165
hackerfromthefu wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because apparently modern US warfare doctrine and smarter guided weapons causes less civilian casualties.

In the end so many targeted munitions are fired that the final result is the same as conventional bombardment.

Note the second word 'apparently'

Editing to add below here as I can't seem to reply to your reply.

I agree my wording wasn't clear, apologies. I meant apparently in the sense of that is what western media writes. I don't know enough about it personally to have an informed opinion of what the truth is.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#170

Post by gumby »

hackerfromthefu wrote: post #169
gumby wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the end so many targeted munitions are fired that the final result is the same as conventional bombardment.

Note the second word 'apparently' Editing to add below here as I can't seem to reply to your reply. I agree my wording wasn't clear, apologies. I meant apparently in the sense of that is what western media writes. I don't know enough about it personally to have an informed opinion of what the truth is.

My point is that I don’t believe it is at all apparent from the evidence of use over the past 25 years.
Post reply on HN