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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#371

Post by thesmok »

suifbwish wrote: post #192
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

All Ukraine has to do is: 1. Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. 2. Anyone in their prisons, offer them clemency if they agree to fight (bad idea I know but it works)

1. Already done, more than 10k foreign people arrived in Ukraine, some are already fighting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russ...

2. Already done for people with military experience.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#372

Post by thesmok »

trhway wrote: post #228
jjulius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

Unfortunately, it is a big point of Russian internal propaganda which demonizes it into foreign "soldiers of fortune", "mercenaries" coming to fight Russia, basically they are making it into an additional point of how Russia in this war is basically defending itself from foreign invasion. "Ukraine is being pumped up with foreign weapons and mercenaries!". Unfortunately Russians are eating it. As a glaring example of…

Nobody cares about Russian internal propaganda at this point.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#373

Post by euroderf »

otherme123 wrote: post #46
ch4s3 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a lot better than the regime change that Russia was initially aiming for. Fighting a large neighboring power to a standstill and suing for peace is quite the success.

Basically what Finland achieved in the heroic Winter War. True, Finland lost some terrain, but I don't think anyone would find the aftermath as a soviet victory, when the original desire was to anexate the whole country.

And also like the Winter War, Soviet/Russian forces were shown up to be incompetent, or at least really really badly led. They had planned on cutting Finland in half in two weeks flat, so even that schedule was not as ambitious as the two-day decapitation planned in the current war. Anyways I can't see how the Soviet failure to flatten Finland didn't subsequently embolden Hitler.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#374

Post by euroderf »

blibble wrote: post #184
brimble wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means (as they already tried once, and as Belarus has gone). Conceding on that, at this point, is just delaying the Russian takeover somewhat. If Russia can't get that out of them, I expect them to demand such large territorial concessions that what…

> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means when will this be exactly? Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

> their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

I'd like to think that if Russia fails to subjugate and absorb Ukraine then it will put an end to Russian dreams of restoring empire, for at least one generation and perhaps for longer. Recalling Zbigniew Brzeziński "It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire."

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#375

Post by euroderf »

k__ wrote: post #52
gremlinsinc wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders. In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhap…

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff. I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

In the 90s Finland wanted to lock itself into the Western orbit, and (IMO) membership in either EU or NATO would accomplish this. As things turned out, an EU offer came first and a national referendum approved it and well hey whaddaya know, that EU membership is sufficient to ensure that Finland is in the West and has full access to Europe (and vice-versa). This still might work for Ukraine.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#376

Post by euroderf »

jcadam wrote: post #106
k__ wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone in power in Russia would see the issue and "remove" him. The replacement could then spin it as being a good replacement and play by the rules of the west.

When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

As a general rule, over the decades (centuries?), every change of leadership in Russia has been at least a bit less bloody than the previous one. Some dare call it "progress" :-P

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#377

Post by thesmok »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #227
oezi wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you clarify how are our information censored in the west? Like specifically what kind of information is actively suppressed by a government actor?

I don't have any evidence of government action so I assume it is voluntary. A simple example is I tried to Google search Ukrainian troop locations last weekend and got zero hits. A number of Wikipedia articles for historic events are also actively being revised

> A simple example is I tried to Google search Ukrainian troop locations last weekend and got zero hits.

Starting Feb 24th, every Ukrainian knows to never photograph our troops, never post about location of our troops, and to photograph and post enemy troops as much as possible. That's why you can easily find photos of vehicles marked Z, but it's very hard to find photos of vehicles wearing pixel camo.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#378

Post by Seb-C »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #340
frankharv wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moral mistake to stand up to a bully? That is the only reason NATO still exists. We literally paid hundreds millions of dollars to prop up Russia and their nuke labs during Yeltsin. Look what it got us. We should have snuffed them out like cockroaches. Instead we let them live. To our detriment. We needed to keep the boogeyman alive.

You have to reconsider who is the bully given the number of countries invaded, governments toppled, and civilians killed by the US in the last 30 years. The US takes the cake in all categories, but of course we aren't a bully, all the people we kill were the bullies. We are the strongest so we define who is a bully or not. >We should have snuffed them out like cockroaches. Instead we let them live. To our detriment.…

The difference is that the US does not conquer, colonize, or annex the territories where they fight. It's even quite the opposite, since they usually try to give them freedom, independence and long term stability (with variable success and moral standing, but still)...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#380

Post by Isinlor »

axiosgunnar wrote: post #300
kspacewalk2 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Ukrainian whose relatives are being bombed and whose friends are currently enlisted - I sure hope they won't consider that at all. The only actions performed outside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine should be in aid of stopping the invasion of Ukraine. Bombing troops and launch sites - yes. Attacking Russian servicemen wherever they can be reached - yes. Occupying even an inch of Russia - hell n…

> and it won't end ASAP if Russians suddenly have a non-absurd reason to defend their land. This is an important point. This is why we should keep reiterating to the Russian people that the sanctions are not to spite them and will be revoked immediately if Putin is gone.

They can not and must not be revoked. This will allow Russia to build up its army again. Give them 5 maybe 10 years and they will start a new war. We must keep Russia isolated for as long as they are a fascist state. If Russia gives up Putin to be trailed in the international court for war crimes then we can lift the sanctions, not earlier.
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