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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#221

Post by cableshaft »

jjulius wrote: post #128
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

Meanwhile Russia is busy trying to recruit foreign soldiers themselves from Kazakhstan and Syria. Kazakhstan told them no, despite begging Russia to send their troops into their country when riots broke out a few months ago.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#222

Post by petre »

dekhn wrote: post #121
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

There's no point in attacking Russian cities or civillian targets. These are fighters specialized in sabotage behind enemy lines and highly mobile guerilla warfare. They make enemy military infrastructure go boom. Just what Ukraine needs right now: turning Russian combat vehicles into wrecks or stuck/abandoned vehicles, sabotaging supply lines.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#223

Post by swagasaurus-rex »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #170
helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

>Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. At lest in the west where our information is censored to provide a Pro-Ukrainian perspective. I can only guess at how the social media ops-game is playing out in Russia and China within their own propaganda bubble.

Hint: they blame the USA and NATO for Putin invading

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#224

Post by MrVitaliy »

nobody9999 wrote: post #204
jcadam wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

>When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force? Kruschev --> Brezhnev Brezhnev --> Andropov Andropov --> Chernenko Chernenko --> Gorbachev Gorbachev --> Yeltsin Yeltsin --> Putin Putin --> Medvedev Medvedev --> Putin Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_leaders_of_Russia

This list is missing Stalin wiping out most of his opposition and things like https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14589691

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#225

Post by Imnimo »

legulere wrote: post #220

Why would you put such a low prediction on that website when you can predict a percentage in the range of [41%, 59%] and have guaranteed points?

Because your goal is not to maximize your chances of getting at least one point, it's to maximize the expected number of points you get.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#226

Post by thehappypm »

mullen wrote: post #96
wackro wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>call Putin's nuclear bluff. And what do you think would be the outcome?

Nothing. A Nuclear Bluff is just that, a Bluff. Putin can't win in a nuclear war and if he uses nukes anywhere, he is done for. No one is going to have anything to do with him or Russia on any level after that.

Putin most certainly can win a nuclear war. He has literally thousands of nukes.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#227

Post by s1artibartfast »

oezi wrote: post #219
s1artibartfast wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. At lest in the west where our information is censored to provide a Pro-Ukrainian perspective. I can only guess at how the social media ops-game is playing out in Russia and China within their own propaganda bubble.

Can you clarify how are our information censored in the west? Like specifically what kind of information is actively suppressed by a government actor?

I don't have any evidence of government action so I assume it is voluntary. A simple example is I tried to Google search Ukrainian troop locations last weekend and got zero hits.

A number of Wikipedia articles for historic events are also actively being revised

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#228

Post by trhway »

jjulius wrote: post #128
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

Unfortunately, it is a big point of Russian internal propaganda which demonizes it into foreign "soldiers of fortune", "mercenaries" coming to fight Russia, basically they are making it into an additional point of how Russia in this war is basically defending itself from foreign invasion. "Ukraine is being pumped up with foreign weapons and mercenaries!". Unfortunately Russians are eating it.

As a glaring example of how gullible are Russians to their propaganda - this official Russian TV story shows planes with unguided dumb bombs (FAB-250, 500lbs) with which Russia bombs Ukrainian cities, and they call it "high-precision missiles" and "point-precision weapons" with which Russia supposedly strikes only military targets (while any Russian can find, yet wouldn't, on YouTube the videos of Ukraine cities destruction by those bombs) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrekdY2FgD0 , yet if you talk to a Russian in Russia they will be screaming that they only "precision-strike only military targets".

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#229

Post by oezi »

drcode wrote: post #156
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

The incident with the nuclear reactors seemed to involve an administrative building, not the reacor(s) themselves (As far as I can tell, hard to determine the truth from my chair in the USA)

It was reported from the beginning that the fire was in a training building and quickly stopped.

The outrage was that it was close enough.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#230

Post by [deleted] »

jcadam wrote: post #106
k__ wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone in power in Russia would see the issue and "remove" him. The replacement could then spin it as being a good replacement and play by the rules of the west.

When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

[deleted]
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