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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#321

Post by NoboruWataya »

pmoriarty wrote: post #254
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

That's really dangerous. I'm not sure that Russia will care to distinguish between current and former military personnel when it considers whether NATO countries have intervened.

Whether Russia considers NATO to have intervened is less a function of whether the facts on the ground justify that assertion, and more a function of whether Russia wants a war with NATO. It will decide based on strategic considerations and manufacture or ignore the facts as necessary to justify its decision.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#322

Post by frankharv »

AlwaysRock wrote: post #203
helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

100% this. I remember the USA's "Mission Accomplished" line/speech and the years of American propaganda that followed which said we were doing great things in the middle east. In reality we blew up a lot of people (soldiers and civilians), cities, and spent a shit load of money to accomplish what? I'm very skeptical of any news coming from either side currently.

I would say we toppled a dictator. It is a role we fulfilled as world police. High strength aluminum tubes speech was just an intelligence blunder.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#323

Post by NoboruWataya »

signatoremo wrote: post #186
otherme123 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO war isn't a scale of bodies. Each side has a strategic objective(s), and winning/losing should be measured against that. Case in point: Vietnam. uSA and allies lost between 1/3 and 1/2 lifes than the North. And the USA loses were small (60.000 in a total of 1.5 million deaths). But it was a total defeat of the USA because none of the strategic objectives were achieved. Ukraine: strategic objectives are being an…

The most important objective was achieved — preventing the expansion of the communism block to other countries. Vietnam today is a market economy, the country is communist in name only. Also, please try to Vietnam. The US is very favorably perceived, more than China or Russia, although probably below European countries. In the sense, the US lost the war, but won in the end, at a very steep price, of course

> Vietnam today is a market economy, the country is communist in name only.

This has nothing to do with US intervention. China is also a market economy, the US never won a war there.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#324

Post by frankharv »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #231
swagasaurus-rex wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hint: they blame the USA and NATO for Putin invading

I assume you were talking about me. I think blame is a stupid and fruitless framing for discussion. I do think the Eastward advance of NATO was a strategic and moral mistake.

Moral mistake to stand up to a bully?

That is the only reason NATO still exists.

We literally paid hundreds millions of dollars to prop up Russia and their nuke labs during Yeltsin.

Look what it got us. We should have snuffed them out like cockroaches. Instead we let them live. To our detriment.

We needed to keep the boogeyman alive.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#325

Post by dzikimarian »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #167
teaearlgraycold wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not what you're asking about, but I'd classify the filtering for what people want to hear as propaganda. Why is so much of the news I see about Ukrainian battle victories while Russians are clearly advancing on multiple fronts? There could easily be more coverage of Russian victories than Ukrainian if we were shown a random sample of phone footage. I'm not complaining - these things have a tangible effect on morale.…

Yeah, I ran into this and was was shocked to see information not just berried, but firewalled. I wanted to understand the situation and searched "Ukrainian troop locations" in google, bing, DDG, and Yahoo. One of the first times I have received no results in google. Absolutely blatant censorship. Ostensibly, google doesn't want to provide intel to Russia, who has ample satellites and combat reports. It seems a little…

Yeah, you also will not be able to find locations of any reputable military - that's basic security measure. I know Russian army does not set the bar very high though, so maybe you're not used to that.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#326

Post by PankajGhosh »

pmoriarty wrote: post #307
smackeyacky wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That changes if Ukraine becomes a treaty member. The treaty means attack one member, all other members respond militarily.

"The treaty means attack one member, all other members respond militarily." That's what it means on paper. But we already see that in practice NATO is not willing to start WW3 to protect Ukraine.

Yes, because Ukraine is not a NATO member. If it was, then as per treaty, the alliance would respond.

How is that not clear?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#327

Post by xdennis »

pmoriarty wrote: post #288
paxys wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cession of eastern territories and Crimea is probably not going to be too difficult a decision, considering Russia controls them anyways and did so even before the war. Demilitarization of Ukraine, NATO membership and relations with the west in general are all going to be very contentious, and it's hard to see a solution here that both sides will accept.

I don't see why NATO membership for Ukraine is so contentious, considering NATO has already made it crystal clear that they won't fight Russia directly over Ukraine.

Because it just means Ukraine will be invaded again later.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#328

Post by Jeema101 »

paxys wrote: post #114
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Cession of eastern territories and Crimea is probably not going to be too difficult a decision, considering Russia controls them anyways and did so even before the war. Demilitarization of Ukraine, NATO membership and relations with the west in general are all going to be very contentious, and it's hard to see a solution here that both sides will accept.

That does seem like it's probably gonna be the trickiest part of the negotiations, doesn't it?

Zelensky has said he is open to neutrality, but the problem is that he would need some sort of security guarantees moving forward. Demilitarization of the sort Russia originally envisioned is probably out of the question in any case, so that would solve part of it.

Maybe some solution involving international peacekeepers and demilitarized zones could work. Or escape clauses where Ukraine is permitted to annul their neutrality in the event of future aggression by Russia.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#329

Post by NoboruWataya »

paxys wrote: post #114
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Cession of eastern territories and Crimea is probably not going to be too difficult a decision, considering Russia controls them anyways and did so even before the war. Demilitarization of Ukraine, NATO membership and relations with the west in general are all going to be very contentious, and it's hard to see a solution here that both sides will accept.

Demilitarisation is an absolute non-starter, I don't see how any sovereign nation could ever agree to that. I assume Russia are putting it on the table so it can be traded away for something else.

If what you say is true about Ukraine being willing to trade away Crimea and the eastern territories, then I don't think an agreement is necessarily that far away. Your initial demands in a negotiation are rarely your red lines.

The most contentious point (again, assuming you are correct that Ukraine is willing to cede the above-mentioned territories) will be bloc membership. Zelensky could possibly give some informal guarantee that he has no interest in NATO membership, but having your own foreign policy is a fundamental part of being a sovereign state, so being coerced into promising they will never join this or that bloc is kind of incompatible with Ukrainian statehood. And down the line they will definitely be eyeing EU membership.

Personally I would be sad to see territory ceded to Russia as it would reward their brutal and criminal tactics. I am also highly sceptical of Russia's willingness to abide by its obligations under any peace agreement. However, I appreciate that for Ukrainians especially, ending the bloodshed is the most important thing.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#330

Post by justsomehnguy »

raverbashing wrote: post #98
sillysaurusx wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nuclear reactor was shelled. I saw it live. Doubt it had anything to do with radiation though.

The increased radiation is from kicking up dust around Chernobyl Regardless of that it is incredibly stupid to do any kind of fighting around a nuclear plant.

> Regardless of that it is incredibly stupid to do any kind of fighting around a nuclear plant.

That goes both ways.

I saw the video from the start of the fighting and that was UA forces who started to fire upon oncoming forces from the building to the right on the video.

If you mount defenses for something vital for the civilians of your country you should always question how exactly to do that to minimize the damage from the fighting.

Given they took positions in the building, started the fight first, had a prerecorded video for Twitter of how they are under attack[0]...

Sure, I'm just an arm-chair general, but for me it looks what the Ukrainian force decided to fight on the NPP territory and buildings.

[0] go find it you if you didn't saw it. I doubt the first thing what would come to my mind as an operator of a NPP is to fire up a video for a social network.

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