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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#251

Post by Etherlord87 »

random_upvoter wrote: post #243
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> best possible outcome at this time is that this war is ended as soon as possible even when this means handing a few victory points to Russia why for the love of god would the West support Russia and not the wishes of the Ukrainian people? I don't understand this reasoning and have even heard it among some of my ultra-religious friends or extended family members. None of them has any skin in the game other than stee…

> why for the love of god would the West support Russia and not the wishes of the Ukrainian people? First, the people of Ukraine are free to decide to do what they think is best and "we", as in the West, are free to decide to do what we think is best. Those things do not need to coincide. Secondly, two million Ukrainians have already decided to forfeit the game outright rather than stay and/or fight. All throughout h…

How many of those two million are children and mothers, who want to take care of their children? That doesn't necessarily mean those mothers want Ukraine to surrender (on the terms disallowing Ukraine to join NATO or EU).

Aside from that, while 2 million refugees is a lot, it's still very far from a majority in a country of 45 million people.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#252

Post by vharuck »

random_upvoter wrote: post #243
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> best possible outcome at this time is that this war is ended as soon as possible even when this means handing a few victory points to Russia why for the love of god would the West support Russia and not the wishes of the Ukrainian people? I don't understand this reasoning and have even heard it among some of my ultra-religious friends or extended family members. None of them has any skin in the game other than stee…

> why for the love of god would the West support Russia and not the wishes of the Ukrainian people? First, the people of Ukraine are free to decide to do what they think is best and "we", as in the West, are free to decide to do what we think is best. Those things do not need to coincide. Secondly, two million Ukrainians have already decided to forfeit the game outright rather than stay and/or fight. All throughout h…

>two million Ukrainians have already decided to forfeit the game outright rather than stay and/or fight.

Mostly women, children, and the elderly. All Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 are prohibited from leaving the country.

>All throughout history a minority decides on war and a majority either huddles or flees

2 million is far from a majority of Ukrainians. I don't know if this includes the number of people held up at border crossings, and doubt it includes those waiting for transportation. But it's still unlikely the majority, even if counting those groups.

>So you tell me what it is that "the Ukrainian people" wish.

They tell us. Right before the invasion, very few Ukrainians wanted to join Russia[0]. Another poll[1] conducted last week showed:

>>Only 11 per cent of Ukrainians agreed “if I could leave Ukraine safely tomorrow for another country I would.” Nearly seven in 10 (69 per cent) strongly disagreed. Only one in 20 (five per cent) of those aged 65 or over said they would leave if they could.

And:

>>Indeed, 67 per cent said they would be willing to take up arms to defend the country against Russian troops, with a further seven per cent saying they were already doing so. 85 per cent of men and 63 per cent of women said they had already taken up arms or were willing to do so.

[0] https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/02/europe/russia-ukrain...

[1] https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2022/03/lord-ashcr...

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#253

Post by nickpp »

random_upvoter wrote: post #243
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> best possible outcome at this time is that this war is ended as soon as possible even when this means handing a few victory points to Russia why for the love of god would the West support Russia and not the wishes of the Ukrainian people? I don't understand this reasoning and have even heard it among some of my ultra-religious friends or extended family members. None of them has any skin in the game other than stee…

> why for the love of god would the West support Russia and not the wishes of the Ukrainian people? First, the people of Ukraine are free to decide to do what they think is best and "we", as in the West, are free to decide to do what we think is best. Those things do not need to coincide. Secondly, two million Ukrainians have already decided to forfeit the game outright rather than stay and/or fight. All throughout h…

There is a dead (why?!) sibling comment: most of the refugees are women and children. Male Ukrainian nationals between 18 and 60 years old aren’t allowed to leave the country.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#254

Post by foogazi »

JohnBooty wrote: post #198
golergka wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nuclear power Is it though? Russian conventional army has clearly been devastated by corruption and bad administration, as the generals and staff didn't anticipate that it would actually be used in a real all-out war. What makes you think that nuclear forces are in better shape?

There's a significant chance their nuclear weapons are in absolute shambles, but who wants to call that bluff? Additionally, even if their nuclear forces are in shambles, it really only takes a single launch to set off nuclear war. It's not like their entire nuclear force needs to function in order for the world to see a very bad outcome.

> Additionally, even if their nuclear forces are in shambles, it really only takes a single launch to set off nuclear war.

Not really - a single launch order has to be communicated and obeyed. No one single person can launch it.

Then where is it launched to ? Uninhabited area, high altitude or a population center of a non-nuclear power?

You think Russia is cancelled now - imagine after firing off a nuclear weapon - China’s existence would be at risk too

Although we’d be so much closer to nuclear war there are still a few degree’s left.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#256

Post by eternalban »

okamiueru wrote: post #247
eternalban wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When nations are forced to trade around Dollar sanctions for strategic resources that they need, they will use alternative currencies and alternative trade and financial mechanisms. I said nothing about the Ruble, which is a local national currency. We're discussing global reserve currency and mechanisms for global trade. > propaganda, either by being convinced by it, or generating it A rather cheap shot. You prove m…

I mean. By all means, explain further what is meant by "death blow", and how that somehow applies to the currency used by the global market. The rest of the world will be able to trade just fine, as far as currency exchange is concerned. The only issue is for those who have halved their buying power. The the rest of the world clearly disagrees with your assessment, as if they did not, it would be reflected in the eva…

What it doesn't mean is a "collapse", which is how you are framing it. It won't be overnight. I assume you are a fellow geek so picture moving a huge infrastructure off of AWS and/or going "multi-cloud". It's not a switch that you flip and definitely not something upper management would want unless AWS keeps crashing and its fabled SLAs don't hold up. Assurances.

Entire supply chains (and everything that goes to make such things happen between nations and international corporations) have substantial inertia built in and will require adjustments. My prognosis is a terminal trajectory ("death blow") unless Russia collapses first, which would then force the hand of China, India, and the rest of fence sitters (which also include Mexico, Brazil, Israel, UAE, KSA, btw.)

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#257

Post by tut-urut-utut »

tut-urut-utut wrote: post #149
Navarr wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking only as an American, I don't think we really know what Crimeans want. Russia isn't well-known for legitimate democratic voting, and the Crimean referendum has never been acknowledged by Western Democracies. I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it. But the question alw…

> I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it. > But the question always goes - where do we draw lines. Should we support the concept of the Confederate States of America seceding from the United States? If California or Texas wanted to secede, should we support it? Wales? Okinawa…

Wanted to edit the previous comment, but it won't let me anymore. I usually don't comment about downvotes, but here I'd really like to know the reason?

What is so controversial about giving the right of self-determination to everyone?

If everyone, regardless of the colour, race of gender has equal right, why some people should, and some should not determine if they want to live in one country? You can even choose your gender now, but can't live in an independent state?

Maybe I am missing something obvious. I Would really like a counterargument here instead of simple downvotes.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#258

Post by api »

nemo44x wrote: post #163
api wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

Owning the reserve currency of the world matters.

The US controls Dogecoin?

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#259

Post by HWR_14 »

dirtyid wrote: post #208
HWR_14 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, the last time the US annexed land by force was the 1800s and the Spanish American war. That's probably why the US isn't getting sanctioned, but Russia is and China would. Meanwhile, I look at Crimea and say Russia isn't shy about annexing. And this particular thread was trying to talk about if China could invade Taiwan without sanctions, using examples of Russia and the US as similar powers. My point is that wars…

> wars of annexation are met with sanctions By your logic PRC "reunifying" with TW wouldn't be met with sanctions because it's a civil war where TW is de jure recognized as part of Chinese territory, at least by parties who can do meaningful sanctions. After all PRC can't annex what's already legally hers.

Except sanctions will be driven by political decisions in democracies. I feel like most of the EU and US citizens would consider it an invasion - so sanctions.

It's not an international law driven by unflinching rules. It's a democratic choice, or a series of them.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#260

Post by belter »

ceejayoz wrote: post #244
belter wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are correct. But if you have to go back to the 60's and the core of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, I am going to think in the last 20 years there are not many events...

You certainly don't have to go that far back. https://twitter.com/SCS_PI/status/1373886128177041410 Well inside China's ADIZ. (I'd also note the article with the headline "Russian aircraft violated European airspace nearly 300 times" actually uses "flying close to NATO airspace" in the text. Russia's doing the same thing we do - fly close, violating ADIZs, and testing responses.)

The East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone is an air defense identification zone covering most of the East China Sea...:-) to which China has no claim.

Tribunal Rejects Beijing’s Claims in South China Sea https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/world/asia/south-china-se...

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