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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#121

Post by mrunkel »

EGreg wrote: post #78
coobird wrote: post #23

This isn't anything new. That's always been Japan's position on the "Northern Territories" as it's commonly called here. From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan: https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/overvi...

China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?

When was the last time the US invaded and occupied land on its own?

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#122

Post by tut-urut-utut »

inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

I wouldn't count on it. It may have been possible in the past that a failing empire implodes and let the incumbents grab their parts around, but today, it may be very dangerous.

I don't think Russia is even unique here, all major nuclear powers, that have an ability to destroy the whole humankind multiple times, would rather see the whole humanity disappearing, then only their empire collapsing.

Russia, as any empire can be dissolved only from within, by the wish of Russian people. But that's dangerous too, since instead of one nuclear power, we would end up with 5, 6 nuclear powers all having the ability to destroy the whole world.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#123

Post by inglor_cz »

baxtr wrote: post #67
thiagoharry wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

I guess it depends on how you define "losing". I don't see any scenario where Russia actually "wins". Thus, in turn, I think it's ok to say they will definitely lose this.

They are certainly very far from reaching their original stated objectives.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#124

Post by tokai »

thiagoharry wrote: post #61
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

You are either misinformed or lying. Even relying on Russian sources it is clear that they have a substantial commitment in Ukraine. Trying to label it as a tiny fraction is honestly ridiculous.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#125

Post by chockchocschoir »

belter wrote: post #9

Russian Migs to "accidentally" cross into Japanese airspace in 3 days... Edit: Of course as follow-up to this accidental event of 6 days ago... "Japan says Russian helicopter violated airspace, scrambles fighter jet" https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/03/02/japan-rus...

To be fair, this is not something that just happened recently, nor just in Japan (nor just by Russia). Airspace of multiple nations gets violated multiple times per year by multiple nations, all the time. Although the timing makes it a bit suspected, I'm sure it's just a general test of "readiness", which happens often.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#127

Post by mytailorisrich »

Navarr wrote: post #99
mytailorisrich wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't they remain part of Russia like they historically were (well, I mean since Russia took over form the Tatars, of course) and seem to want? It's not because Russia has taken Crimea back in a rather cavalier way that they should be split again just to weaken Russia. This can only perpetuate resentment and problems.

Speaking only as an American, I don't think we really know what Crimeans want. Russia isn't well-known for legitimate democratic voting, and the Crimean referendum has never been acknowledged by Western Democracies. I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it. But the question alw…

Crimea it at least 70% ethnic Russian and was Russian until moved to Ukraine without consultation.

So I think this is a case where Putin's actions did align with what the people actually wanted even if that's too hard for the West to acknowledge publicly (I'm sure that they accept that Crimea is not going back to Ukraine).

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#128

Post by ZanyProgrammer »

denton-scratch wrote: post #62
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> Tuva (ironically, where Shoigu comes from) is a Buddhist nation that fits into the Mongol-Chinese cultural sphere better than into Russian one. Mongols/Buddhists have a long history in Russia.

A quick glance at Tuva specifically on Wiki has an extremely short period of time in Russia’s political sphere. I’m not sure if the predominately Buddhist parts of Russia have that deep of a Russian history.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#129

Post by MandieD »

xxs wrote: post #47
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

"Germans effectively left in the late 40s" - Germans quickly evacuated in the face of the Red Army, because bad things happened to the ones who didn't.

My father-in-law's family considered themselves very lucky to have had distant relatives in Niedersachsen (West Germany) and to have gotten out of Tilsit (now called Sovetsk) at all. He's never been back.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#130

Post by nullifidian »

inglor_cz wrote: post #55
ketzu wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Vladivostok used to be a Chinese town once, and the Chinese hate the old Unequal Treaties. Could you provide some links? I would like to learn more about that. As far as I knew until just now the treaties between russia and china aren't all that old and the PRC has no claims on any currently russian land. But I am not well informed about the topic at all. (After some research: The ROC and freer press were quite unh…

I corrected that. Apparently, there was just a fishing village there. As of March 8, 2022, China has no claims on Russian land, but history shows that if a juicy opportunity turns up, countries start to come up with claims that were previously forgotten. Yes, this scenario is unlikely. But not beyond reasonable doubt. Multinational empires have imploded and disintegrated before (Tsarist Russia, Austria-Hungary, the O…

Vladivostok/Primorsky Krai is ethnically Russian though. If Russia ceases to exist as a mutli-ethnic empire, it would unlikely be the part that breaks off.
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