Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst • Hacker News Board

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#241

Post by worik » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 7:14 PM UTC

jonathanstrange wrote: post #132

This is virtually guaranteed to be a deliberate disiformation piece written by an actual FSB officer for that purpose. Maybe it's only intended for splitting the Western alliance, but it could also be used for a false flag attack to further justify Russia's aggression. Or, slightly less nefarious, it could be intended to "explain" if something went wrong with the occupation of a nuclear power plant. In a war like tha…

> I've also flagged this thread because it's clearly political and pointless discussing this on HN.

This is political like the choice of technology is political. I.e. everything is political.

This is meat hook reality blasting apart comrades of ours on both sides.

This is not a debate about whether Putin should be impeached for hanging out with Aslan Usoyan.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#242

Post by jacquesm » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 7:20 PM UTC

worik wrote: post #238

blywi wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you would like to have more background information, here is a great thread about Chechen history and Kadirovs rise to power in view of this conflict. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612331953577991.html I would recommend Kamil Galeev threads to anyone interested in the history of Russia and Ukraine, he has written a ton of threads about a lot of different aspects to the Russian/Ukrainian conflict, which all…

Who is Kamil Galeev?

Two Clicks

"Galina Starovoitova Fellow @WoodrowWilsonCenter . MLitt in Early Modern History, St Andrews. MA in China Studies, Peking University"

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#243

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 7:22 PM UTC

simion314 wrote: post #40

Ygg2 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's understandable. It's very hard to believe whatever either side is reporting. And before you say that's what Russian bots want you to believe, I'll add I lost my trust after Iraq war reporting (like who in their right mind confuses plot of The Rock (film) and WMD in real life), and then after Trump's victory in 2016 (media I was following at the time were making it out to be a sure fire thing for Hillary…

>It's very hard to believe whatever either side is reporting. You have more then Russian and Ukrainian news, there are reporters from other countries present on the ground, probably mostly English sources are link but I assure you for example there are Romanian reporters there and filming stuff, there are reporters filing refuges and asking questions. There were some Russian free press reports too you could have read…

[deleted]

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#244

Post by worik » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 7:28 PM UTC

Having read the (translated) document and the comments here I think people are missing the point looking for facts in the document.

If it is genuine it is a very good insight into morale.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#245

Post by jl6 » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 7:31 PM UTC

It “smells right” to a Western audience, but seems a little too good to be true.

Right now objective #1 for Ukraine is to get NATO to implement a no-fly zone. NATO are reluctant because of the risk of escalating into a direct war with nuclear-armed Russia. The payload of this letter is the claim that the Russian nuclear deterrent is in a state of disrepair, or that cooler heads will prevent it being used. And thus if we believe this, there should be no reason for NATO not to grant Ukraine its wish.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#246

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 7:39 PM UTC

narrator wrote: post #152

rich_sasha wrote: post #134

While it looks like it’s interesting, I can’t help but feel that the informational content is zero of maybe even negative. There is absolutely no way for the lay internet user to corroborate one word of it that isn’t already public information. Whether it looks or feels plausible is also meaningless: it could “feel right” because it is, or because someone took effort to design it this way. So best thing for me is to…

The word for this is LARP (Live Action Role Play). This is where some message board troll uses publically available information and plausible extrapolations to pretend to be some "high level insider" leaking something. When the prediction doesn't pan out, the usual response is "two more weeks." Qanon is the most notorious and successful example of this phenomenon. You don't normally see these on HN, but they are comm…

[deleted]

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#247

Post by belter » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

rossmohax wrote: post #138

belter wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those claims have been debunked, but hats off to Zelensky for trolling Putin on that one with his own mic move...

Check his right hand at 8:39 frame by frame: https://youtu.be/I3JpOy_fOmA?t=512

It says not available in the Belt...but the the video is fake. There are photos of the event.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#248

Post by petre » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 8:06 PM UTC

lawl wrote: post #206

paganel wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The info about Putin not being the only one in charge of pushing the "red button" is new. Hopefully it is also true, but afaik there hasn't been any concrete info about that, quite the contrary, the feeling is that all the world risks getting into nuclear war because of one "madman".

> the feeling is that all the world risks getting into nuclear war because of one "madman". Which, from a game theory perspective is exactly what he would want you to feel. If people don't believe he will press the red button, then the red button doesn't deter anyone and there is no nuclear deterrence.

We did not believe he was going to invade Ukraine, although the US did warn us weeks or even months in advance. I'm not going to make the same mistake again and prepare for the worst.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#249

Post by petre » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 8:19 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #181

grugq wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Creating a long fake is riskier than a short fake. Making mistakes is a risk, and so the more content the more risk. As for the “reality” of working as an analyst in FSB it seems pretty accurate. Even if not true, it carries a certain truth. The general analysis is consistent with what most people I’ve spoken with think. Russia is in a bad spot. They need to turn the narrative on Ukraine (one idea we thought of was a…

> Creating a long fake is riskier than a short fake. Making mistakes is a risk, and so the more content the more risk. But this isn't really a long piece. It's very short in actual content, only padded with prose. And what exactly is the risk anyway? That someone will identify it as Ukrainian disinformation? That's very low stakes, which we know because it has already happened with other bits of "info".

The Kadyrov FSB leak being Ukranian counter information is quite plausible. Maybe they got tipped off by NATO and after neutralizing the chechens, they claimed it was a FSB leak.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#250

Post by rizkeyz » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 8:21 PM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #245

It “smells right” to a Western audience, but seems a little too good to be true. Right now objective #1 for Ukraine is to get NATO to implement a no-fly zone. NATO are reluctant because of the risk of escalating into a direct war with nuclear-armed Russia. The payload of this letter is the claim that the Russian nuclear deterrent is in a state of disrepair, or that cooler heads will prevent it being used. And thus if…

This. While I believe the part about chaos and surprise and fake reports it also makes it seem that Russia is weak - which is probably dangerous to assume (of any undefeated opponent).

However, one positive note to get out of this in any case is that with the current trajectory, even without any further outside intervention going beyond the current state of affairs will likely bring the Russian special operation to an end, be it that supplies are running out or people just start to lose overview or just that you cannot succeed if maybe 20-40% of your forces are gone even before you capture one bigger target. Russia supposedly already lost 10% of their attack army and they don't have a lot to show for it. It also explains their attack patterns getting more weird, uncivilized and cruel (e.g. "we have to do something", even if it is firing on nuclear power plants).

Next step likely will be Belarus troops and supplies entering the game, which makes it more obvious that Moscow was absolutely clueless. Belarus was on the brink of a regime change just last summer - the order to go to war with Russia against Ukraine will send Belarus over the edge, I am virtually certain about that.