Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

This is virtually guaranteed to be a deliberate disiformation piece written by an actual FSB officer for that purpose. Maybe it's only intended for splitting the Western alliance, but it could also be used for a false flag attack to further justify Russia's aggression. Or, slightly less nefarious, it could be intended to "explain" if something went wrong with the occupation of a nuclear power plant.

In a war like that, people should not trust anything coming directly from an intelligence agency, whether published deliberately or allegedly leaked by a "whistleblower", unless it contains actionable and independently verifiable information. (Even if the latter is the case, by the way, it's the bread and butter of misinformation to mix less valuable real information with misinformation.)

I've also flagged this thread because it's clearly political and pointless discussing this on HN.

While it looks like it’s interesting, I can’t help but feel that the informational content is zero of maybe even negative.

There is absolutely no way for the lay internet user to corroborate one word of it that isn’t already public information. Whether it looks or feels plausible is also meaningless: it could “feel right” because it is, or because someone took effort to design it this way.

So best thing for me is to ignore it and forget I read it, lest something I read in it confuses me later for a reputable source.

I’m not saying it’s not genuine, it might be, just that to me it is 100% indistinguishable from a prank or psyops.

Look at his hand with the pen at 8:38-8:40, his palm, close to wrist, is definitely clipping into foreground

Check his right hand at 8:39 frame by frame: https://youtu.be/I3JpOy_fOmA?t=512

Adding to your comment, in the Munich Security Conference on 2022-02-19, Zelenskyy said:

“Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFV5nw1UUNY&t=900s

That “Budapest Memorandum” is this one:

“Until Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, it had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile, of which Ukraine had physical but no operational control. Russia controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons through electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system, although this could not be sufficient guarantee against Ukrainian access. Formally, these weapons were controlled by the Commonwealth of Independent States.”

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly commented on the Budapest Memorandum by arguing that it provides no true guarantee of safety due to Russia's coercive power. On 19 February 2022, Zelenskyy made a speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he said «Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. ... If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.» Putin used Zelenskyy's comments as part of his claims that Ukraine could develop nuclear weapons. Critics have disputed Putin's claims. This treaty has since been violated by Russia at the outbreak of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

This might be what some interpret as Ukraine seeking to acquire nuclear weapons in the near future.