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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#231

Post by MrMan »

mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

HN is mostly trolls, shills, libertarians and far right types, and weird bubble millennial who seem to aggressively hate everything and just want to get rich. greed and fear rule this forum and the result is very anti-intellectual.

you will notice politics and actually real world concerns mostly by the absence, or the completely predictable what-about responses so the greedy people can try to get back to work.

I dont care about being banned my conscience is clear.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#232

Post by shmobot »

the_af wrote: post #142
gorgoiler wrote: post #32

Verified by two anonymous sources, according to a “Bellingcat exec director”, who in turn has been verified by Twitter (which amounts to what, I do not know — verified their name? Their job? That they are competent at their job?) A little tenuous, but maybe this Bellingcat employee is super famous and renowned? It would be interesting if people here can come up with a better chain of verification. Until then, it’s ce…

It's interesting that otherwise smart people here believe that it must be true because two anonymous and unverified sources also say it's true. And this is purportedly intelligence information coming from the FSB! I mean, military intelligence, what could go wrong with trusting sensitive intelligence of an ongoing war that someone posted on Twitter or Facebook?

I don't consider myself super smart, but i read a lot of news on the non government controlled websites (vc.ru, tjournal.ru, exler.ru for instance), that usually have an audience that is more intelligent than the average population. The common motif from those who worked for the Russian authorities that this is indeed the case in various parts of the government, total corruption and incompetence and talented people usually don't stay long. It also comes together with what we see about Russian army progress in Ukraine, looks like quite a failure considering how much armed forces they have.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#233

Post by throwmeariver1 »

spacemanmatt wrote: post #208
throwmeariver1 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of communities that are functioning way better after they implemented a strict no politics policy. It's a strawman argument. Especially considering the populous of hackernews of which 90% don't believe that they can be manipulated by advertising because they are too intelligent. It's gonna be a shitshow.

What does it say about quality if you use a trash account and don't bother with grammar-checking? Those things would seem to belie your stated position.

More snot. Sorry that english isn't my first language and that I don't want my real identity known by people like you.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#234

Post by throwmeariver1 »

spacemanmatt wrote: post #207
throwmeariver1 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of communities that are functioning way better after they implemented a strict no politics policy. It's a strawman argument. Especially considering the populous of hackernews of which 90% don't believe that they can be manipulated by advertising because they are too intelligent. It's gonna be a shitshow.

I wonder how many giggle when they read populous where they expect populace

dang.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#236

Post by the_af »

shmobot wrote: post #232
the_af wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that otherwise smart people here believe that it must be true because two anonymous and unverified sources also say it's true. And this is purportedly intelligence information coming from the FSB! I mean, military intelligence, what could go wrong with trusting sensitive intelligence of an ongoing war that someone posted on Twitter or Facebook?

I don't consider myself super smart, but i read a lot of news on the non government controlled websites (vc.ru, tjournal.ru, exler.ru for instance), that usually have an audience that is more intelligent than the average population. The common motif from those who worked for the Russian authorities that this is indeed the case in various parts of the government, total corruption and incompetence and talented people u…

Don't get me wrong, it definitely seems plausible. But wouldn't a disinformation tactic be to spread plausible but slightly distorted "insider info"?

I'm saying it's weird to trust a piece of military intel (precisely the kind of intel that gets frequently faked) just because some journalist claims two unnamed FSB spooks he happens to know "say it's legit". Well, would you trust unnamed experts on any other security related matter, just because someone on Twitter says so? And specifically in a context where we know disinformation is being spread left and right?

Why are we collectively so gullible?

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#237

Post by eternalban »

avodonosov wrote: post #59

A "whistleblower" should reveal some secret facts. Here we have a collectiol of opinions, even if by an FSB worker.

There is no way this is from a Russian security officer. We can unpack this part by part -- all merely my opinion + common sense:

- RF nuclear deterrence: this part is designed to allay fears of NATO citizens of getting directly involved in the fight. In what universe does a Russian spook undermine his nation's deterrence? So, garner public support for direct NATO involvement by claiming that military chain of command in RF strategic forces is non-functional, and (for bonus point) the weapons may not even work!

- Famine: this part is directed at the people of what is known as "global south". Under-reported in the West, the "global south" is either sitting this out or is voicing objections of Western hypocrisy and actually rooting for the Russians. Putting a little bit of fear of starvation in that demographics may provide political cover for their political classes.

- Chechnya: in the same alternate universe, a Russian FSB agent fans the flames of resentment of the locals in a separatist-ready corner of Russian Federation.

- Soleimani: this part is interesting. RF, of course, was not 'tricked' by Soleimani into getting involved in Syria. They got themselves a nice little piece of property (for ever, btw, for free!) on the Mediterranian. So little blackwashing of Iranians as well.

p.s. of course having this circulate in Russia will go a long way to demoralize the Russian public. It is transparent psyops.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#238

Post by worik »

blywi wrote: post #205
glogla wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether fake or not, it is definitely adding some perspectives I didn't see up until now. For example, I have not considered the possibility of Kadyrov position not being very stable if he loses (or already lost) his soldiers in something that was supposed to be short and glorious war. Same with how does Russia keep their Syria effort supplied when their logistics in Ukraine are already stretched. So this is definite…

If you would like to have more background information, here is a great thread about Chechen history and Kadirovs rise to power in view of this conflict. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612331953577991.html I would recommend Kamil Galeev threads to anyone interested in the history of Russia and Ukraine, he has written a ton of threads about a lot of different aspects to the Russian/Ukrainian conflict, which all…

Who is Kamil Galeev?

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#240

Post by jacquesm »

grugq wrote: post #170
secondaryacct wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found it interesting for the purely operational aspect: management ask for analysis without context, doesnt like answer so force better number, bubbles up for months to the top, war is declared on the basis of analysis, all is fucked because analysis was devoid of meaning. Now, need to fix the shit and Z stands for Nazi, Zelensky is war hero, Chechens dont understand why they were erased even before killing one civ…

Creating a long fake is riskier than a short fake. Making mistakes is a risk, and so the more content the more risk. As for the “reality” of working as an analyst in FSB it seems pretty accurate. Even if not true, it carries a certain truth. The general analysis is consistent with what most people I’ve spoken with think. Russia is in a bad spot. They need to turn the narrative on Ukraine (one idea we thought of was a…

Don't underestimate the value of a couple of AWACS flying non-stop over Eastern Poland and Romania.
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