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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#231

Post by gls2ro »

MattGaiser wrote: post #189
praptak wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no going around it: any sanctions which don't even inconvenience the West don't hurt Putin and are already calculated into his plans.

Depends. You could target Russian citizens with strong ties to Putin with asset seizures like Roman Abramovich. Seizing Chelsea F.C. and handing it over to fans would be quite popular.

What would this kind of sanction achieve? Do you expect that a friend of Putin will go to him and then ask him to stop a War? Right now in his own circle of friends, there is nobody more powerful than Putin and their money does not matter right now. The war will not be stopped because some friends will have their assets frozen or even lost. Global Power > Friends Money. To stop this war one has to show a bigger power. Some other type of sanctions needs to be considered.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#232

Post by oleg_antonyan »

rebuilder wrote: post #156
trhway wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the main, "voice of the state", the 1st channel of Russian TV they have just discussed that the West would introduce more sanctions, yet half a year down the road the West would just get used to the situation.

I wonder what that reflects. Sanctions would not be very popular among the Russian population, is this just the regime calming down the populace? Or does it genuinely reflect the calculus here?

All real opposition is imprisoned or killed. State controls all media and actively censor internet. You will get in trouble for organizing or even mentioning any kind of mass protest on social media. 60+ generation only watches TV and supports Putin, and for the rest he has massive amount on police and special forces if censorship and "regular" repressions didn't work. Many people leave the country b/c leading the revolution === getting killed regardless of outcome. Those who cannot leave are too weak, those who can but don't want to are trying to ignore all this shit and live their normal lives. The abundance of oil money helps Putin to keep most people barely above poverty level regardless of sanctions, and that's ok for many.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#233

Post by Teracotage »

'NATO response: This latest escalation could see Article 4 invoked by NATO, which means alliance needs to mobilize and may increase its military presence in countries on Russia’s and Ukraine’s borders. We don’t dare guess where the risks lie here, but it heightens danger.' Saxo Bank

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#234

Post by ed_balls »

gambiting wrote: post #72
CodeArtisan wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

> end of the world

They are all rational actors. Turks killed Russian solders in Syria, where they nuked? Putin is bluffing.

In case of aggression, you have to sand your ground, there is no other option.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#235

Post by sergiotapia »

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Isn't the basis of the dollar based on petroleum? Hence the "petrodollar"?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#236

Post by thow-58d4e8b »

MattGaiser wrote: post #149
georgeplusplus wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China benefits most from the electrical energy economy. Let that sink in. The reason why we arrived at today is people not thinking through the effects of their actions and desires.

Chinese at least care about their material prosperity. Russia seems fine with whatever sanctions fall on their lap.

Sanctions barely work on small countries. They're but a nuisance for mid-sized countries and do approximately nothing to big countries. Russian economy is mostly autarkic - consuming overwhelmingly goods and services produced within Russia. Their exports are energy commodities, not consumer goods - energy commodities are the bedrock of the modern world - they'll always find a buyer at market price or slightly below. Their national debt is negligible. China is not going to stop exporting their goods there, and I don't see corporations like Apple/Google/Volkswagen/Toyota giving up such a large market just to make a point. Token slaps on the wrist for the few selected oligarchs who haven't secured British citizenship yet are laughable

We should be honest to ourselves - short of Western citizens dying on the battlefield, there's nothing of consequence the West can do. Russia exploited our weaknesses really well - our irrational hesitance of nuclear energy, our greenwashing of natural gas, our love for petrol-guzzling SUVs, kowtowing of our financial system to ultra-rich, profit-uber-alles of our corporations, hypocrisy of our diplomacy, etc.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#237

Post by radicalbyte »

georgeplusplus wrote: post #134
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

China benefits most from the electrical energy economy. Let that sink in. The reason why we arrived at today is people not thinking through the effects of their actions and desires.

China have invested strongly in electric tech for their own reasons - pollution and of course they also see climate change as a massive threat.

That the US in particular has been extremely late to the table is unfortunate but hey - what else do you expect when policy is bought and paid for by incumbents and one of the to political parties are 100% owned by Fossil interests.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#238

Post by woodpanel »

travisgriggs wrote: post #170

Sometimes, compromise and diplomacy are a wonderful thing. But sometimes, there is no real compromise and the can just gets kicked down the road with what feels like compromise but really is just festering. I’ve seen many a historian posit that the 3/5 compromise was a compromise that ultimately germinated the civil war. They kicked the can down the road til its very rotten contents spilled over. Part of me wonders i…

Russia is the last colonial empire and as such under constant threat of disintegration by the spread of outside political ideologies like ethno-nationalism, liberal democracy or communism (whose introduction by Germany did a pretty "big number" on Russia until Communist Russia eventually faced the same geostrategic power struggle the Tsarist Empire faced).

So when speaking of "aggrevation" always factor in the perspective of the "Empire".

PS: The concept of buffer countries as a peace keeper has been helpful in the past (e.g. Belgium kinda, Austria). I guess Ukraine's role will have to be that of such a buffer.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#239

Post by masklinn »

cm2187 wrote: post #215
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

How do you do that? The reason europe needs russian gas is precisely because renewables are very intermittent, and they use gas to compensate. More renewable means more reliance on gas, unless you build nuclear plants. And if you do, you might as well not build renewables because the cost of nuclear is pretty much the same whether you use it or not.

The reason europe uses gas isn’t even electricity, it’s mostly heating and industrial.

For instance in france’s energy budget nat gas is almost as large as the entire electricity production. The policy over the last few decades has been to put everyone on gas distribution networks and encourage switching furnaces (from furnace oil, tbf).

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#240

Post by hef19898 »

watwut wrote: post #195
hef19898 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of those two, Russia and NATO, the only expansion since the end of the cold war and the fall of the USSR was done by NATO. That's just a historical fact. Which doesn't justify anything, but explains a lot. All that is purely academic now so, with people in Ukraine dying over this shit.

And Nato expansion was done by allowing coutries who wanted to do join Nato to go in. Yes, some of their motivation was to prevent Russia to attempt to expand again into their borders. > All that is purely academic now so, with people in Ukraine dying over this shit. That is not purely academic. Framing what Russia is doing now as kinda similar to Czech voluntary joining Nato is word class propaganda. It is in fact a…

Not sure where I compared the NATO expansion, a peaceful one, to Russia's invasions of Georgia and Ukraine. All I'm saying is that Russia, pretty much since German reunification, worried about NATO expansion to the East. And personally, I get that. After all, NATO and the USSR (along the Warsaw Pact) used to be sworn enemies for decades by then.

This escalation started decades ago, and was totally foreseeable. And yes, the discussion about the root causes, what-ifs and past errors becomes pointless once bullets fly and people start to die.

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