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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#171

Post by awb »

thepra wrote: post #110
winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

From Putins interview he does explicitly say that he wouldn't be in this position if the NATO didn't push for Ukraine, as simple as that.

Putin says a lot of things. Like “we’re not going to invade Ukraine”.

He’s always advocated for a return to USSR borders.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#172

Post by mopsi »

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

> I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO?

Yes. The trigger for current events was the possibility of closer cooperation with the EU, not anything NATO-related. Putin can't have a successful alternative to his regime. He can write off Finns and Lithuanians as being of different culture, but if their ethnic brothers Ukrainians built a successful country with wages multiple times higher than in Russia, then it would fatally undermine Putin's legitimacy. He doesn't want to end up like Saddam or Gaddafi.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#173

Post by praptak »

MattGaiser wrote: post #166
praptak wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the biggest problem. I don't believe the sanctions imposed on Russia for the previous acts of aggression reached the level which Putin had already calculated into his plans.

I was really surprised at how lightweight the first wave of sanction was. They sanctioned some Russian politicians who were proud of it and the invaded areas only.

There is no going around it: any sanctions which don't even inconvenience the West don't hurt Putin and are already calculated into his plans.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#174

Post by oblio »

glogla wrote: post #161
oblio wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, etc. turned around in 1991. Ukraine didn't. Its people didn't want it. Downvote all you want, that's just fact.

The downvotes are because your opinions are despicable, not because it isn't literally true that Ukraine stance changed in the last decades.

I don't wish ill to the Ukrainian people.

I'm sorry this is happening. And they haven't done anything to deserve what's happening to them.

But their opinions only changed after aggression. Back in 2005 or so they were still pining after the Soviet Union.

But yes, truth hurts.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#175

Post by RobertoG »

watwut wrote: post #89
sofixa wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The position is understandable because Russia is playing a Grand Strategy Game in the past, and doesn't want the enemy ( NATO) to be at all their borders. Justified? Right? Humane? Absolutely not.

That is not understandable. "I don't like nato at the border, therefore I will push my border toward nato". Russian "nato is ennemy" exists, because Russia wants nato be ennemy. It prevents further expansion.

Some question that nobody is asking is, "what's the role of NATO?" The historical original reason for its existence have disappeared, so what is it for now?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#176

Post by salawat »

irrational wrote: post #42
salawat wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You...realize that all "thermonuclear" is is doping your bomb with tritium/a light fusion stage to generate more neutrons, for more complete fission of the fissile primary, right? All nuclear weapons are fission. Only newer ones are fusion boosted fission devices. I assure you, there is more than enough nuclear ordinance laying around to ensure WWIV is fought with sticks and stones. You do not want .

I’m fairly certain that some people truly do want to see the world burn.

Hard to do with cooked retinas, acute radiation poisoning, and the prospects of living beyond 20 cancer free are minimal.

Also, the world's a big place, even though the internet has made it seem small.

Yes, I understand it'd be nice to watch a good fee choice chunks burn... But I really don't think anyone is prepared for the hell on Earth of a full strategic nuclear exchange.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#177

Post by jollybean »

wiz21c wrote: post #118

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

Putin views Ukraine as part of Russia.

It goes much further back than 'The USSR'.

Read his words [1]

That, plus the giant hubris of the 'Empire' mindset that he has, and frankly exists in Russian culture and there you have it.

Russian Imperialism is of the fairly classical kind. 'We are Great, and Strong, Superior, and those around us are lesser, weaker, and naturally our vassals' kind of thing.

It's entirely fair to be cynical about the West, and to use some degree of moral relativism, but in reality, it's very different in North America / Angloshphere + Europe than in Russia. And China.

If we don't 'do something' then we can assume Taiwan is next for much the same reason.

[1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#178

Post by Synaesthesia »

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Yeah but the US is doing the opposite, extracting huge amounts of gas and shipping it around the world.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#179

Post by gambiting »

pyuser583 wrote: post #169
misja111 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia You are assuming here that Russia would be willing to cause a World War by attacking those American soldiers. > as a Pole the risk of actually being involved in military operations is making me extremely uncomfortable right now. But the alternative, to let Russia have Ukraine, will become very uncomfortable in…

You’re assuming killing those troops would cause a world war. The US might just say, hey we’re not going to sacrifice more folks over this.

Yeah, and send a message that says "you can kill American troops without consequences"? And if that's your strategy - why send them there in the first place?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#180

Post by alde »

teatree wrote: post #151
glogla wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.

I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)

Latvia and Estonia are already in NATO and they border Russia.
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