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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#71

Post by [deleted] »

bremac wrote: post #57
throwaway5752 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in the presence of rational actors this would be avoided, but here we are anyway. A single nuclear strike would be met with retaliation and it would escalate to mutually assured destruction like clockwork. A lot of optimists thought Putin would not invade Ukraine because of the risk and that he was posturing. It would be similarly optimistic to presume rational actor decision processes. That may be a strategy he…

If Putin presses on toward Poland or threatens the Baltics, then we will be on a knife's edge. However, for now, Russia has only invaded Ukraine. It's a humanitarian disaster, but so far on the world stage it shows no sign it will escalate beyond new sanctions, export controls, and perhaps additional military support for NATO members in Eastern Europe.

[deleted]

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#72

Post by gambiting »

CodeArtisan wrote: post #53
Hokusai wrote: post #11

This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev

And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those troops get attacked - and the current strategy is to attack back, which again = end of the world. Arming Ukraine to the teeth and letting them fight back was the second best option and that's exactly what the west has done.

Also, there was a meme recently - it's all fun and games being an expert on the internet, but then you remember you are an able bodied male who would absolutely be drafted in to actually fight. "West should do something" - great, you first. I have kids and family, as a Pole the risk of actually being involved in military operations is making me extremely uncomfortable right now.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#73

Post by oblio »

CodeArtisan wrote: post #53
Hokusai wrote: post #11

This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

None of those countries are in NATO and some of them were not super friendly until the crises happened.

Ukraine itself is an example.

Ukraine was posturing aggressively against Romania, NATO and EU member, as recently as 2009.

I feel bad for what's happening in Ukraine, but they didn't really try to make many friends before 2014.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#75

Post by oblio »

selfhoster11 wrote: post #40
darebak wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that any of the world wars started out of small things, can you clarify?

World War 1 started because a guy was assassinated, for one. The tension was there, but the assassination was what set everything into motion.

The assassination was a pretext.

Austria-Hungary had been thinking about invading Serbia for decades.

I dislike this historical view where the little guy is blamed.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#76

Post by polotics »

ckastner wrote: post #36
throwaway5752 wrote: post #2

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con... People are minimizing this, based on the word "consultation". Don't be fooled, this is grave news, even though it is not Article 5. Article 5 invocation under these circumstances have substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange.

> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

I fear that with missile defense and impending climate disruption models, the calculus of MAD may have been updated somewhat: no-one wants a starving population with a MAGA-level of understanding and education about their predicament roaming around the enclaves... If you thought California's and Australia's fires were what climate impacts will look like, think again: a limited nuclear exchange will probably have about the same disruptive impact as a bad climate year in 2035 +/- 10 years. Tidsfrist!

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#77

Post by Teever »

darebak wrote: post #25
reitanqild wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read modern history. Especially 1936 to 1940. If you are in a hurry you can start here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time

I think I am well versed in European history, thank you for your snarky comment. There's no reason to believe some local conflict will undermine "democracies" all over Europe, notwithstanding the media that is always preying on people's fears.

In my opinion the existence of an any authoritarian entity, let alone the expansion of one is a threat to democracy.

Until all nations are healthy democracies, the institution of democracy faces an existential threat.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#78

Post by hef19898 »

khazhoux wrote: post #45
hef19898 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They consider their security to be threatened, and requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. Article 5 can be invoked once, intentionally or by accident, e.g. a NATO plane is attacked over Ukraine. This whole thing is a mess. Despite history since the end of the cold war (which makes some of Russia's positions somewhat understandable, and the fact that NATO didn't do anything different in…

> They... requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. I'm totally ignorant on NATO procedures, so forgive me that I don't understand the Big Deal here. Obviously, NATO nations will discuss this. They didn't need Estonia to draw attention to what Russia is doing. So this seems to me a bit like: The exact thing that obviously would happen next (NATO nations discussing) will still happen, but…

NATO, like every other organisation, is discussing things all the time. Article 4 is the equivalent of not just inviting to a meeting about about a topic but raising a formal JIRA ticket and invoking a formal process involving senior management to discuss the severity (and not the mere existence) of that ticket. So yeah, invoking an official article is a big deal, because it forces the whole of NATO to formally address this issue. No NATO member nation can easily weasel out of this now.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#79

Post by bobsmooth »

gambiting wrote: post #72
CodeArtisan wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

I guess we let Putin have Ukraine then.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#80

Post by reitanqild »

rightbyte wrote: post #67
reitanqild wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for pointing out. I'm comparing Germanys "helpful" occupations of neighboring countries "to help the poor Germans there against abuse" inhabitants to Putin's attempt to occupy Ukraine "to protect all the poor Russians there against genocide."

There was no German enclave uprising in Poland with an 8 year stalemate. The situation in Ukraine has been very unstable.

Yep. You are right.

Putin is even better than Hitler at this game it seems.

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