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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany needs gas today, not after n years, so making a nuclear plant today is not a good solution. We should be investing in small nuclear plants that China is making for future needs. Restarting old nuclear plants is not solving the problem because it is expensive. And I highly doubt the government would cut taxes. And, buying oil from other countries is expensive. This probably explains why Germany is not supporti…

> This probably explains why Germany is not supporting Ukraine with fists. And also probably because we don't want a war on our borders? Ukraine was supposed to be a buffer state between NATO and Russia, and then US promised that Ukraine would have joined NATO, and back at the time Germany and France pushed back[0]. But US has only to gain with disorders in the old continent, so here we are... [0]: https://www.nytime…

Very true, but as with the Iraq war, the guilty are easily found and support for a war quickly comes from the righteous®.

Russia actually does have an argument for protecting former Russians in some countries. These are people that suddenly lost their nationality with the collapse of the soviet union and don't want to relieve it in favor of the new countries. That puts them in a situation where they are not allowed to travel because of lacking passports. There is additional discrimination that the population faces. Of course that is not at all an excuse for an invasion. But if you deny that Russia has security interests in that region, you basically are asking for a war. And the Russians have made it very clear that it is seen that way and made their reaction very predictable. Yet, western nations ignored that completely.

After what the US media conjured as Russian election interference it certainly drove more animosity towards Russians. Completely irresponsible behavior and not a lesser extend of state propaganda than you would hear from Kremlin media. But people will completely deny this reality due to a religious self-image, even if they know it was bollocks. Shame on those that reiterated that message which was not restricted to the US at all.

The US might have some obligations towards Ukraine, as has Great Britain. But I don't think the involvement of the US has been very helpful. Bush wanted to be seen as strong everywhere after 9-11 and that extended to giving Ukraine and Georgia hope of Nato membership. At that time Russia didn't even react much. But the course for the escalation was set.

One common factor of those that asked for a strong response, which the west mostly gave with the exception of Germany perhaps, was being profoundly ignorant in how to talk to Russia and its interest. Ukraine has interests too, but there is no solution for them without a dialogue with its neighbor.

And just promising to not include Ukraine in a military alliance (it is not just a defensive pact) would have mostly ended the conflict and most arguments. Yet, some people decided not to do that.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-... . From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak... > Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan o…

At the same time Europe is decarbonizing. From 2025 on most countries won't allow the installation of new gas heatings. H2 production will start in (somewhat) serious quantities in 2025. Electric cars will start to reduce oil consumption in a meaningful way (Norway is already decreasing motor gasoline consumption by 5-6% year on year). So the dependency will be reduced on both sides.

Definitely. I think that what's happening now may actually help swinging skeptics to renewables. It's no longer an ideological reason, it's a real physical, short term existential and measurable threat.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#303
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ha ha, funny joke. Where are the 100k+ US troops on Ukrainian borders?

US has not deployed to Ukraine because its not in its national interest whereas Russia does have an immediate security concern with NATO expansion to its borders after the end of the cold war. US has deployments all over the world after WWII in order to bully and protect its own interests. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/10/infographic-us-mili...

US deployments aren’t generally against the will of host nations.

There certainly is plenty of coercion involved in having so many deployments, but plenty of it has to do with strategic alliances.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of people (on Reddit) are calling SWIFT expulsion as the lever. Also the nord stream 2 seems to be inoperational shutting down number 1 would have shown seriousness. So I don't know the endgame but I think the west has levers it is too chicken to use.

I am quite happy that both sides are "too chicken" to use all the levers. Some involve putting in long strings of digits and turning keys at the same time. If the only way to survive for Russia is a full out war, we all lose. In that sense: Freezing outside assets might be better to convince the Russian oligarchs to find a peaceful solution: They get their assets back if they can find it. I think Putin being pressure…

Putin's been telling these oligarchs to bring their money back for years. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-... You'd be doing him a favour.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#305
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germans can barely get their heads around nuclear energy. Pumping fluids that have been anywhere near a reactor into homes will be untenable.

I don't think this is the core problem, that would have been to build a nuclear reactor so close to a major city, that you could run a pipe to it.

As you can tell from the map that's not really an issue. Nuclear power plants aren't in the middle of nowhere, they need access to an educated workforce.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-map-of-Nuclear-Power...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see NATO involving itself militarily. If a US soldier dies defending Ukraine, I think that enough people will ask "why are we shedding American blood for something that has nothing to do with us?" Which is why it's been so stupid of the US and the EU to push for Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO. All it has done is provoke Russia, who doesn't want foreign influence right on its borders and Ukraine isn'…

I don't think NATO particularly wanted to include Ukraine, but they definitely don't want Russia to be able to dictate who is allowed to be included. Russia is aware of this, which is why in order to set the grounds for an invasion of Ukraine, they repeatedly asked NATO "please swear that you'll never let Ukraine into NATO" with the added non-starter of "remove troops from existing NATO countries". And when NATO righ…

The EU still has to consider how other nations will react to their policies.

Russia and China are still in the 50-100 years ago mentality and will ruthlessly enforce having buffer states between major powers. Sharing a border is simply not in their interests and they would rather destroy Ukraine than allow it to join the EU.

The US would do the same thing. Just think about how much we freaked out over the Cuban Missile Crisis. If China struck a deal with Canada to put a military base in Vancouver, we'd lose our shit, but we act shocked and insulted when Russia does the same.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fossils create a mess in 25 or 100 years. Not stopping Russia can create bigger problems in 1 or 2 years (and it will come on top of existing problems.)

Stopping from what? And what bigger problems?

> Stopping from what? And what bigger problems?

Stopping Russia from copying 1930ies Germany and/or recreating USSR.

The last 20 years Russia has been salami slicing Eastern Europe, taking one slice at the time.

BTW: I think it would be a lot more consistent and believable if you didn't - in a short timespan - both try to criticise me for 1.) not wanting to give enough subsidized fuels to Europe 2.) wanting to subsidize fuels for Europe.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#308

U.S. to be world's biggest LNG exporter in 2022 [0] “Approval of additional LNG exports from Freeport LNG furthers this Administration’s commitment to promoting American energy, American jobs, and the American economy. Further, increased supplies of U.S. natural gas on the world market are critical to advancing clean energy and the energy security of our allies around the globe. … for molecules of U.S. freedom to be…

>"The Iron Curtain of the 1940s and ‘50s was ostensibly designed to isolate Russia from Western Europe – to keep out Communist ideology and military penetration.

Uhh what? If I remember my history class correctly, it was the east that built the berlin wall and had emigration restrictions, not the other way around. The wikipedia article confirms this.

"The term symbolizes the efforts by the Soviet Union (USSR) to block itself and its satellite states from open contact with the West and its allied states. "

>[2]: https://www.counterpunch.org/

>"It has been described as left-wing.[3][4]"

Oh, figures.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#309
post #34
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is dead for all purposes unless the political climate changes radically. Whatever the Russian plans for a gas supplier to Germany were, they are limited to what the existing pipelines can deliver. I hope, we can reduce the dependency on Russian gas quickly, even if it means the additional effort of shipping LNG from the US or other sources. Mid-term it should be highest priority to get rid of fossil fuels as quick…

It's been dead for a very long time. It's a carrot that Russia was never going to get. If Scholz is smart (which I doubt) he'll restart/keep open the nuclear power plants and cut taxes on gas/electricity for households to neutralise the price hikes.

Most major cities on Germany either use district heating or gas (esp. in eastern Germany).

Overall, rounded: 48% natural gas, 25% oil, 14% district heating

https://www.bmwi-energiewende.de/EWD/Redaktion/Newsletter/20...

Electrical heating is rare, because it's inefficient. And considering the former energy mix of Germany: not ecological.

You don't have to like Scholz, but talking about nuclear in this context and calling the head of a state dumb... ?!?!... doesn't make much sense.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#310

If there were real plans to sanction people responsible for invasion, they should've sanctioned russian billionaires - cancel their residence, close their companies, liquidate their property, freeze their money in banks, forbid travel. But this looks like they are taking EU money to pay to US gas fracking companies

Russia has had it's billionaires sanctioned back in 14/15. Most of them now use the Russian banks to do their business (and those banks are not subject to sanctions and will misrepresent who they are doing business for). The next step is to close the loophole and target the Russian banks as a whole, which will have consequences for non-billionaores in Russia too.

It seems that banks are the new target for the UK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60476137

London is one of the key centers for global banking. That said, I can't imagine Russian billionaires don't have means to shelter funds, nested shells in some offshore bank I'd imagine.

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