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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#241

Post by karpierz »

Anyone have thoughts on how this all pans out?

I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories as lost, and consolidates what it has left. But I'm not sure how they do that without:

1. The current leader losing legitimacy, and likely resigning.

2. Opening the door for other parts of Ukraine to split off.

3. Opening the door to Russia to meddle in other parts of Ukraine/other nearby states to encourage them to split off.

I don't see Russia backing off in the near future; they've held onto Crimea for the last 8 years without blinking.

I don't see NATO involving itself militarily. If a US soldier dies defending Ukraine, I think that enough people will ask "why are we shedding American blood for something that has nothing to do with us?"

I don't know that economic sanctions will be enough. We've been doing that for years, and nothing's changed.

I don't know that providing weapons to Ukraine will be enough. While the Russians may lose soldiers in the coming months, I've heard that a lot of soldiers come from isolated parts of society (and so the people who mourn them aren't going to be able to organize political resistance).

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#242

Post by newaccount2021 »

markvdb wrote: post #193
dboreham wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't use electricity to run your gas furnace.

Green hydrogen derivatives would make that theoretically possible. This is receiving quite a lot of attention in the EU at the moment. In practice, the stress is more on industrial processes and other primary energy use scenarios.

No post body was provided.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#243

Post by diimdeep »

U.S. to be world's biggest LNG exporter in 2022 [0]

“Approval of additional LNG exports from Freeport LNG furthers this Administration’s commitment to promoting American energy, American jobs, and the American economy. Further, increased supplies of U.S. natural gas on the world market are critical to advancing clean energy and the energy security of our allies around the globe. … for molecules of U.S. freedom to be exported to the world” [1].

"The Iron Curtain of the 1940s and ‘50s was ostensibly designed to isolate Russia from Western Europe – to keep out Communist ideology and military penetration. Today’s sanctions regime is aimed inward, to prevent America’s NATO and other Western allies from opening up more trade and investment with Russia and China. The aim is not so much to isolate Russia and China as to hold these allies firmly within America’s own economic orbit." [2]

[0]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-be-worlds-biggest...

[1]: https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-authorizes...

[2]: https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/02/11/americas-real-advers...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#244

Post by cheaprentalyeti »

raxxorrax wrote: post #212
PinguTS wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Poland let the long term contracts run out and also got cheered up for this by the US to not depend on Russia, Poland is the one who buys on the spot market. The German companies buy from Gazprom under the umbrella of the cheap long term contracts and now are selling to Poland. The German companies order from Netherlands way much more then in previous years (almost double), because of long term contracts, tha…

I think Poland expected more support for such a decision but they basically just cut their own flesh with that. Ironically the relationship between Russia and Poland is worse than between Germany and Russia. Post-war politics seem to have a larger impact.

How can it be Ironic? It exactly matches the relationships in the first couple years of the second world war: Germany and Russia had the Molotov-Ribbentroff Pact, and the parts of Germany and the Soviet Union that used to be a country called Poland Just Had To Put Up With It.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#245

Post by Semaphor »

foepys wrote: post #122
mlatu wrote: post #80

> The decision comes as Europeans grapple with record-high power bills, driven in large part by a gas supply shortage. an artificial shortage made by private investors. the russians are selling the gas as per contract, but because it is cheaper than what you can get on the spot market, some idiots are making a quick buck by selling the cheap gas for the spot market price. well, something like that https://blog.fefe.d…

Be aware that Fefe is very pro Russia and repeatedly stated that he thinks that Russia is defending itself against Western aggression. He also made fun of multiple people who said that Russia would invade.

> He also made fun of multiple people who said that Russia would invade.

Nah, he now switched to explaining why it was expected and Putin had no other choice. I still can’t tell if he has been going crazy in recent years, or if I simply never realized how much bullshit he writes.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#246

Post by ezconnect »

rosndo wrote: post #234
DeathArrow wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't LNG from US be much more expensive than gas from Russia? Why would European countries pay for it?

Because they’d rather depend on an ally than an openly hostile state. Because the US would massively subsidize LNG exports to EU in order to support their allies?

No post body was provided.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#247

Post by rosndo »

ezconnect wrote: post #246
rosndo wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they’d rather depend on an ally than an openly hostile state. Because the US would massively subsidize LNG exports to EU in order to support their allies?

Quoted post unavailable.

Ha ha, funny joke.

Where are the 100k+ US troops on Ukrainian borders?

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#248

Post by CodeGlitch »

karpierz wrote: post #241

Anyone have thoughts on how this all pans out? I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories as lost, and consolidates what it has left. But I'm not sure how they do that without: 1. The current leader losing legitimacy, and likely resigning. 2. Opening the door for other parts of Ukraine to split off. 3. Opening the door to Russia to meddle in other…

> I don't know that economic sanctions will be enough

Plus gaining territory = more access to raw materials and labor. Perhaps that's Putin's plan?

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#249

Post by thinkindie »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #104
major505 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think china is too happy about this separatist support since this sets a precedent for territories they consider separatists like Taiwan.

Yes... and no. These are separatists who are operating with the support of Russia, and are (obviously) puppet states for Russia now that Russia is going to be sending "peacekeeping forces" within their territory. I don't think China would have any objection to separatists of any nation who wanted to spread communism and get Chinese backing. Actually, the fact that there aren't Taiwanese separatists for China is proba…

spreading communism - LOL. China might spread their very own version of capitalism, which considering the amount of millionaires and the growing inequalities within China is far from any version of communism.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#250

Post by kshacker »

karpierz wrote: post #241

Anyone have thoughts on how this all pans out? I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories as lost, and consolidates what it has left. But I'm not sure how they do that without: 1. The current leader losing legitimacy, and likely resigning. 2. Opening the door for other parts of Ukraine to split off. 3. Opening the door to Russia to meddle in other…

A lot of people (on Reddit) are calling SWIFT expulsion as the lever. Also the nord stream 2 seems to be inoperational shutting down number 1 would have shown seriousness. So I don't know the endgame but I think the west has levers it is too chicken to use.
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