Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

vaghetti.dev

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 611 posts

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#51

Post by e4e78a06 »

ravenstine wrote: post #33
adamredwoods wrote: post #24

>> The CEO’s job is to make as much profit as possible. Higher salaries mean less profit. It’s just how the game works. I find this to be too simplified. The CEO's job is far beyond salaries alone. >> Even if we enter some new dotcom bubble and a good chunk of our startup ecosystem dies off, demand for tech is spreading across all industries, businesses everywhere are digitizing their operations and these systems wil…

> We're not in a bubble. We are in the information era, and cloud computing is helping drive this. We're not necessarily in a bubble, but perhaps there's some foam? There will be a plethora of programmer jobs for some times go come, but we've also gone quite a while without a meaningful market adjustment, if you will. A point may come where global politics force the industry to be far more regulated than it currently…

> There will be a plethora of programmer jobs for some times go come, but we've also gone quite a while without a meaningful market adjustment, if you will

We just went through a massive market adjustment. COVID forced a lot of layoffs and hiring freezes in March 2020 (even in tech) and all the COVID-boom stocks like Zoom, Peloton, etc. have all crashed 50%+. Valuations in private funding are being cut as we speak due to interest rate changes. But salaries for senior engineers have only gone up.

> self-taught coder with no degree and a poor understanding of security may come to an end

This was never a common outcome in the first place, despite what blogs and bootcamps might have you believe.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#52

Post by tupac_speedrap »

osrec wrote: post #27

I actually think high quality programmers will always be in high demand. Poor programmers will get found out sooner, as the general population becomes more technical.

The general population isn't becoming more technical though, as an example almost everybody drives cars but most people aren't mechanics. People see cars and tech as a means to an end, which is perfectly fine for me. They just want to get their job done.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#54

Post by streetcat1 »

commandlinefan wrote: post #14

Lawyers and doctors have always enjoyed “good times” and there’s no reason to think they’ll stop. Why not programmers, too?

Actually AI will catch up to doctors and lawyers much faster than to programmers.

In addition, programmers have many more domains that they can switch into, however, once the AI lawyer or AI doctor will rise, it would practically replace 90% of the lawyers/doctors.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#55

Post by mountainriver »

adamredwoods wrote: post #24

>> The CEO’s job is to make as much profit as possible. Higher salaries mean less profit. It’s just how the game works. I find this to be too simplified. The CEO's job is far beyond salaries alone. >> Even if we enter some new dotcom bubble and a good chunk of our startup ecosystem dies off, demand for tech is spreading across all industries, businesses everywhere are digitizing their operations and these systems wil…

Exactly, this is real progress, we are automating whole swaths of our business sector and it’s making us way more productive and profitable

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#56

Post by arvinsim »

nostromo wrote: post #25
commandlinefan wrote: post #14

Lawyers and doctors have always enjoyed “good times” and there’s no reason to think they’ll stop. Why not programmers, too?

Lawyers and doctors in the US effectively have union-style control on the supply of lawyers and doctors, via the Bar Association and AMA. Developers have no such labor association. We also have headwinds like H1-Bs, that push down our wages.

Perhaps eventually developers will organize one.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#57

Post by nogridbag »

300bps wrote: post #26
mrtksn wrote: post #17

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer. Making machines do things will never end. However, the tools for making machines do things is evolving very quickly. The general art of being a developer will continue to get specialized and at some point specialists at any field would be expected to be able to program their machines. Very few people are learning how to run their servers and much more are moving int…

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer Not in a million years. When I was 10 I got my first computer and spent 12-16 hours per day on it every day learning BASIC, 6502 Assembly and many other languages. All the adults at the time thought, “this is how all kids will be from now on!” Except none of my peers did it. The generation after me only had a small percentage of people truly interested in computers a…

> Except none of my peers did it

That's a good point. I still remember how excited I was writing my first app in BASIC at school:

    What is your name?
    > John
    Hello John!
I was so excited I tried to copy the program on a floppy disk to play with at home but I could not figure out why it didn't work. I now realize the school used Apple II's and my parents had a PC at home.

I've always thought because today's generation grew up with smart phones, tablets, and ultra realistic games no one would be interested in getting started with coding. But reading your comment I realize the whole school was exposed to the same class and very few of my classmates would go on to major in CS.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#58

Post by singron »

nostromo wrote: post #25
commandlinefan wrote: post #14

Lawyers and doctors have always enjoyed “good times” and there’s no reason to think they’ll stop. Why not programmers, too?

Lawyers and doctors in the US effectively have union-style control on the supply of lawyers and doctors, via the Bar Association and AMA. Developers have no such labor association. We also have headwinds like H1-Bs, that push down our wages.

I think that's true, but the interview process for a SWE is (I think) unusually rigorous. I'm often surprised when I talk to my friends in other fields who get hired after 1-2 hours of get-to-know-you interviews. Meanwhile, almost every SWE job has 4-6 hours of technical evaluation proctored by the incumbents. It's true that if someone has done 12+ years of college, med school, and residency, you can trust a little more on their resume, but I've also turned down SWE candidates with impressive sounding pedigrees after seeing them bomb simple exercises.

Maybe we've figured out how to haze our way to exclusivity without centralized gatekeepers?

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#59

Post by Barrin92 »

jollybean wrote: post #38

Everyone in the US or a wealthy country pushing for 'remote work' is outsourcing themselves, ultimately. In the short term we get 'remote work' which some see as a benefit. In the medium term, absent the apparent advantage/willingness of people to be 'on prem' (in the minds of employers), it's just as easy to hire someone at 3/4 price from Europe, 1/2 price from E. Europe, 1/4 the price from India. While 'language an…

This framing of "cheapening out" or "The US and other wealthy countries" is a little bit behind the curve. Tech talent physically moves frong HK to the mainland nowadays, The salaries in some Eastern European countries are higher than in Portugal or Spain.

It's not cheapening out as much as it is diversification at this point, and give it another generation and it'll simply be people having the choice to work anywhere in the world.

Companies don't just 'outsource' any more but primary want a presence and access to incredibly large markets with domestic talent.

Post reply on HN