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The U.S. is now energy independent
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Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#62> The impact on geopolitics extends to a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Disruptions to European energy supplies would have a less direct effect on the U.S. than they might have in an earlier era. Put another way, the USA now has less incentive to "keep the peace." Putin's drama and posturing, plus the USA being untethered...that's not a good combination.
It's the other way around. Russia is agitating because they can't support their regime with oil anymore. The US has no obligations in Ukraine but have working overtime to prevent escalation.
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#63> The impact on geopolitics extends to a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Disruptions to European energy supplies would have a less direct effect on the U.S. than they might have in an earlier era. Put another way, the USA now has less incentive to "keep the peace." Putin's drama and posturing, plus the USA being untethered...that's not a good combination.
It's the other way around. Russia is agitating because they can't support their regime with oil anymore. The US has no obligations in Ukraine but have working overtime to prevent escalation.
> The US has no obligations in Ukraine
It depends on defining 'obligation'. The US doesn't have a treaty obligation to defend Ukraine but does have that obligation to NATO members, and a Russian attack on Ukraine threatens NATO members. Also, the US has a different kind of 'obligation' to democracy, peace, prosperity - all of which are not only essential in themselves, but essential to the peace and prosperity of Americans - and to the rules-based international order that provides those things. We don't want to return to the first half of the 20th century, with two major wars, but now with far more destructive power.
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#64They’re citing oil consumption numbers during the pandemic which I’m sure will not be sustained.
The production side is also unsustainable. Some large producers are committing not to increase production and instead pocket the higher prices. https://energynow.com/2022/02/pioneer-pledges-to-hold-u-s-sh...
Well, good for the environment, right?
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#65Can someone explain why during the start of Covid lockdowns, gasoline prices didn’t drop to $1.00/gallon? There was no demand, and plenty of supply. The simple supply/demand curve of my high school economics memory, seems to imply prices should have taken a dive to virtually zero. Sure they went down, but nowhere near what the models I’d learned would predict. Just a rant that lit up inside my brain every time I fill…
Actually many places with real competition, near production and very little regulation in the U.S. did have $1.00 or so gallon gas, i.e. much of the south and near energy producing areas in LA for example. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that gas retailers in California would continue to price their gas at ~$5.00 a gallon when they don't actually have any to sell (or conversely, aren't selling any at all) because…
Which regulations are raising prices?
Also, I'm a little confused: SD and LA are in California, of course.
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#66It was made this way by the previous administrations efforts. Then sustained by great reduction in energy usage. We'll see how this trends through 2022 but I'm not optimistic.
It was made this way by the folks who figured out how to do fracking. Politics had little to do with it. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...
It was the American public: Fracking was developed in a federal government research program in the early 1980s, IIRC.
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m hoping the transition to electric vehicles will be in full swing by that point. While we use oil for more than passenger cars if the decline in demand could more or less match the reduced supply it would be ideal.
In two to four years? I'm sorry but that's not realistic. It will be bigger than it is now. But not 1000% bigger. Probably not 100% bigger.
Almost certainly more than 100% bigger in two to four years, if Gartber predicts 50% growth for 2022-2021 alone. And many project more.
What’s more, the growth will likely pick up each year as more and better EVs become available, and more people start considering them as a real alternative.
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
A better argument would be whether there are any restrictions at all that, during a world shortage, would prevent companies producing oil from exporting it to other parts of the world to the detriment of local US consumers. There aren't, so the US isn't independent on anything: the regular citizen will get priced out of the market regardless of their need the moment there's profit to be made elsewhere.
The United States banned crude oil exports from the 1970s until 2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_and_Conservation... https://ballotpedia.org/Crude_oil_export_ban It didn't seem to affect retail fuel prices very much either way.
Almost like there is a cartel manipulating prices.
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#69Notice that the article conveniently leaves out '21 and '22.
It also doesn't include natural gas
Re: The U.S. is now energy independent
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
A better argument would be whether there are any restrictions at all that, during a world shortage, would prevent companies producing oil from exporting it to other parts of the world to the detriment of local US consumers. There aren't, so the US isn't independent on anything: the regular citizen will get priced out of the market regardless of their need the moment there's profit to be made elsewhere.
There's no current threat of being priced out, the major oil producers are too busy trying to get market share on low cost oil. Going forward, will this ever be an issue? Peak oil is coming from societies moving away from oil and adopting renewables. By the time OPEC et Al start raising their prices, they will be irrelevant to most US consumers
Honest question: what about plastic and other non-fuel uses?