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Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

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Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Lex fridmans interview with George Hotz, hots talks about why he thinks radar AI is a non starter and predicted that even though Tesla was still adamant about using their radar, they would eventually realize they only needed cameras. Hotz is the founder of comma.ai which is doing open source (I think?) Company.

What were his reasons? Searching the web reveals lots of machismo and assorted hero worship, but no actual solid technical arguments. Nobody in the field seems to think a vision-only solution is practical, other than Tesla, who are also not providing solid technical arguments that I can find. This IEEE item seems to summarize the situation well. https://spectrum.ieee.org/tesla-places-big-bet-vision-only-s...

It was a discussion about how such a system must function with all the different inputs vs the vision only model.

If you have radar and lidar and vision, then you have at least three different specialist machine learning models running, and then another model running that takes their outputs and decides what the car is going to do. You may have even more than that, some doing specific tasks like localization.

Neural nets and vision only is a more difficult but in the long run straightforward solution. The example he brought up was alphazero vs some other chess engine that has a rook engine, and a knight engine, etc.

Basically he's backing the end to end neural network back approach over some kind of multi-sensor fusion.

https://youtu.be/_L3gNaAVjQ4?t=3801

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheaper, you don’t have to tip (in the USA where that is required), availability (driver doesn’t need to sleep), and safety (you don’t have to worry about your driver trying to cheat or rob you). People aren’t getting cheaper. Indeed, this pandemic is showing us just how fragile the labor market is and automation that was too expensive to consider before (like fry robots at caliburger) are now very reasonable upgrade…

Where are Uber drivers considered full time employees?

Didn't that almost happen in California?

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Airplanes couldn't fly in inclement weather for decades. Took a while but we solved it. "Oops it's pouring, can't get a Cruise, gotta fall back to an Uber" doesn't sound that terrible to me, for now. Cruise could even offer a product that compensates/insures you for that eventuality, if for example Cruise was your primary vehicle.

But if self-driving succeeds then there won't be enough gig-drivers ready-to-go to cover a self-driving outage.

Taxis, available with e.g. a simple phone call, have existed since before telephones and cars really, and they still exist now even as ride-sharing has taken over. They will exist as Cruise rises.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should visit Tokyo when they let you back in. If your city lets you get a car up to every door, it's not dense enough.

Do Tokyo'ians enjoy being packed like sardines, other than the fact that they have no choice over it?

You're confusing density with overcrowding. They don't have roommates, making it strictly nicer than SF.

Also, Tokyo is the best city in the world, so yes. The rural areas are depopulating because nobody wants to live there more than a lack of work. There are suburbs for families too, but they're still transit-oriented.

(Not that Japan is against cars. They just don't do all their transportation with them.)

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This problem should be solvable in software. The car can simply refuse to operate in a situation where maintenance is required.

How do you know maintenance is required in a completely automated fashion?

Service intervals based on time and usage combined with certified repair. From a passengers perspective airlines are strictly liable but presumably airlines could then sue the relevant third parties in such a case. I suspect a similar model could work fine for self driving cars.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#376
post #210
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…

What’s your view on whether self-driving cars should automatically be 100% liable for any accidents? I ask this in the context of machines being governed by classical deterministic physics, so there is an argument that there is no such thing as an accident involving a self-driving car: only a design flaw. This is a genuine question, as I can see that companies with self-driving systems that work, and who do serious f…

If you listen closely, you can hear Cruise's legal team shouting, "No you can't make a public comment on what level of liability you think we should accept" no matter where you are in the world!

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#377
post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder about that. The top maintenance issue that comes to my mind is sufficient tread on tires. Bald tires will still work great on dry streets but as soon as it starts raining, you start skidding. I honestly don’t know if software could intervene quickly and reliably enough there.

The software could require a trip to the dealer for a visual inspection of the tires at set intervals. Hopefully free of charge for something so simple. A quick hookup to the computer and the interval is reset.

In a world where most dealers and manufactures what you to pay a subscription for everything it isn't likely to be free of charge.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#378
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when the ML threshold is crossed If, not when. Even the most cutting edge research today still pales in comparison to LiDAR.

Is it really an "if"? I think it would be pretty safe bet that in 100 years human-quality CV object detection will be solved (note, we both know that it is possible AND this doesn't require AGI). So then it's really a question of when (presumably you don't need the full 100 years).

> note, we both know that it is possible AND this doesn't require AGI

Not who you're replying to and not saying you're wrong, but how do we know this?

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if self-driving succeeds then there won't be enough gig-drivers ready-to-go to cover a self-driving outage.

Taxis, available with e.g. a simple phone call, have existed since before telephones and cars really, and they still exist now even as ride-sharing has taken over. They will exist as Cruise rises.

There might be taxis, but not enough for everyone who wants to catch one. It’s already difficult enough on rainy days.
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