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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

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201–210 of 265 posts

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those crazy ideas are crazy only when they fail. And with great execution even the most crazy idea can become a success - there are tons of examples. Ideas have nothing to do with failures, marriage breakups etc. That's bad planning, no backup plan, etc.

Nonsense, a bad foundational idea sets a start-up back so much that it makes a failure so much more likely. Most don't have the runway to pivot away to something that works. And if you think that businesses failing are some abstract concept completely removed from any personal impact then it shows why these success stories are a problem. It's less prevalent and more unwelcome to hear about the marriages breaking up,…

I always wondered how these kinds of ideas even survived the initial laugh-test. Like, didn't the entrepreneur even have a single friend who could point out how awful and flawed their idea was before they tried to make a serious business out of it?

People used to come to me to validate their horrible business ideas. "Oh, you're a tech guy and you have a business degree! What do you think of my Online Store For Cats idea?" Usually they didn't like what I had to say, and eventually people stopped coming to me for advice. Now I know why these things don't get filtered early. Entrepreneurs tend to be positive and optimistic, and then only surround themselves with other positive, optimistic people. So, now subscription-based juice squeezers make it all the way to production and then people scratch their heads and wonder when they fail.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#202

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

Yep.... Bootstrapping is for fools. Virtually no founders out there are pouring their personal savings into their company. The issues with bootstrapping: 1) No one to tell you to give up except your own survival instinct. 2) You've already told yourself to ignore that survival instinct because of the success stories you've heard. 3) Even if your idea is fantastic, there is another group of folks out there who have ra…

I would be willing to bet a large amount of money that the large majority of successful businesses are either bootstrapped or use traditional loans as funding. The stats don't work out any other way - several hundred thousand new businesses are started in the US each year, but only a fraction that number could possibly be angel or VC funded. Your perspective only applies to a narrow slice of SaaS businesses.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#203
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are these all from the profit seeking entrepreneur?

Lack of famine certainly is. Probably the greatest advance ever.

Haber process was developed while Fritz Haber was at University of Karlsruhe, a public research university. BASF was hesitant to invest in it, but luckily employee/engineer(not exactly an entrepreneur) Carl Bosch was there to convince them otherwise, and was able to industrialize the process.

Haber process also has its negatives, such as an ammonia resource for war, and the growing use of factory/unsustainable farming actually threatens environments and clean water. It is also one of the biggest consumers of energy on the planet.

Maybe a better example is the transistor(and tons of other stuff) from Bell Labs, but AT&T wasn't exactly a plucky startup, and has a monopolistic/anti-competitive past that tarnishes its history.

Maybe both of these examples show the importance of research, and the ability to tinker/explore solutions without profit motive pressures getting in the way.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#204

I had a dumb idea about this a while ago - to do a massive completion for coin flipping. Get thousands of entries. Each ‘match’ just involves the two people flipping coins to decide the winner. You make a documentary about it where you ask everyone about their tactics and strategy. Someone has to win all their matches. They will have developed some ‘tactics’ that they probably strongly believe in. Of course we know i…

Reminds me of the start of “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead”, great absurdist play.

https://www.cusd80.com/cms/lib6/AZ01001175/Centricity/Domain...

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize you're defending the position of "let's increase your odds from 0.001% to 0.5%", right? You are kind of citing baseline expectations and not success boosters here. Additionally, to play basketball for "many, many years", somebody has to pay your bills in the meantime. A luxury that most of the world does not have -- namely you being able to go all-in on your dream. Rent is still due next month.

Usually, the basketball playing happens when rent is still paid by parents.

Indeed, and exactly. But the "many, many years" part to me kind of implies that you can be now 30+ and still mainly do basketball and trying to break through. Which is sadly unrealistic if you haven't got a job or parents willing to support you for that long.

I hate to be the grim adult but reality does set in at one point and you have to accept you've missed your (probably generously big) window of opportunity and move on.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another great motivator is being told you will never be able to do something, which gives fuel to the motivation in the form of spite. Very American of you. :P For people already struggling this only adds depression to the bigger depressive pile, FYI. Perspectives, we all need them. People can be beaten down to a level where every single adversity is putting them back to bed, unwilling to get out for the next day o…

Sure, but they have bigger problems and hopefully are seeking professional help not thinking about advanced productivity techniques like this thread is about. For most people this is a perfectly fine point. This trend of "but wait this won't work for this particular group" in online conversation isn't useful. This obviously wasn't directed at heavily depressed people or people struggling it was directed at otherwise…

Apologies, I didn't mean to ruin your argument by citing groups and circumstances to which it doesn't apply.

I mostly meant to question your definition of normally functioning people. IMO from a lifetime of observations the normal state of your average human is being passive, not learning, not improving, and not changing their life situation. Hence my comment. Sorry that it was worded a bit poorly.

You probably meant "your normal functioning human that also wants to improve their life", I assume.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#208
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are these all from the profit seeking entrepreneur?

Lack of famine certainly is. Probably the greatest advance ever.

Are you certain those dots are connected? We've had profit seeking entrepreneurship for a long time and famines haven't been gone very long, and arguably profit-driven climate change is the biggest potential source of looming famines (should they start to reoccur).

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#209
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. they are rarely stupid I know at least 5 people who are fairly stupid but were at the right place, the right evening, the right dinner and spoke with the right people. They all retired at 35 with tens of millions after taxes. They can coast on these savings for 10 years if they live lavishly and if they close all their businesses tomorrow. They weren't stupid in 2-3 regards, yeah. For everything else that I chat…

Successful people often need less sleep than what’s considered the norm. 5 hours for them is 8 hours for most people. Same with stress, stress tolerance is above the norm. They’ve won the genetic lottery. Not every successful person has these traits of course. But enough to see a pattern.

As Arnold Schwarzenegger keeps saying: "Stop saying you don't have time. You have."

IMO it's really not about sleeping less. It's about optimizing your day and, provided you're full of energy and enthusiasm, you can slice and dice every 15-minute segment of your day to do something productive.

It's crazy, really. On some of my very good days (I am changing diet and do some exercise but the effects are sporadic) I was able to be productive on my computer and phone for 14-15 hours straight, with only toilet breaks and quickly gulping some snacks in the meantime. On these days I do catch up with stuff that's been eating at me for the last 6-8 weeks...

So yeah, I don't disagree that if you're very efficient you can achieve a lot. And I do agree with Arnold and many others who say that people complain about the wrong thing because we really very often do have the time. But it's hard for me to agree that systemically depriving yourself of sleep is good.

Sure, there are such things as the genetic lottery indeed. But it only takes you so far. Believe me, I've seen some rather perfect-seeming humans crash and burn, hard, around their 37-43 year old mark. In the end, you're abusing a resource that you are given genetically. Sooner or later it's depleted. We're no terminators with nuclear batteries.

But hey, if you are that genetic prodigy AND manage to make it big before your body starts catching up with the fact that it's Homo Sapiens and not an Asgardian... then more power to you, really. I was stupid enough not to use my youth and now I have to practice an olympic pentathlon (figuratively) just so I can break even in life. But complaints get us nowhere. Trying to change food, trying to exercise more, trying to reduce distractions and negative emotions etc. And it works.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#210
I’m no finance expert, but I’ve been semi-adjacent to finance stuff enough to end up in conversations with tons of friends/family about what makes for investment returns in everything from tech startups to US equities to crypto coins and have coined a tongue-in-cheek maxim:

Reesman’s First Law of Investment Success Evaluation: As concerns returns, that which can explained by survivorship bias is due to survivorship bias.

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