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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#121

Post by bluedino »

dlisboa wrote: post #79
onion2k wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Virtually no founders out there are pouring their personal savings into their company. That definitely isn't true. Tens of thousands of companies are bootstrapped every year. Some go on to be quite successful (Github, GoPro, Apple...). You won't find all that many bootstrapped business founders posting on HN (it's run by an investment company...) but that doesn't mean they're not out there. Plus, due to the changing…

Aren’t all those examples “day X profitable” startups? As in startups that had a profitable business model from day 1 and it only took them some share of the market to become profitable after an initial loss (usually operational). GitHub was making money in their very first year. Many startups these days follow the “never profitable” business model in the hopes of being bailed out by angel investors or IPO. I’d say i…

Was GitHub ever profitable?

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#122

Post by pdimitar »

inter_netuser wrote: post #77
lampe3 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

> 1. they are rarely stupid

I know at least 5 people who are fairly stupid but were at the right place, the right evening, the right dinner and spoke with the right people.

They all retired at 35 with tens of millions after taxes. They can coast on these savings for 10 years if they live lavishly and if they close all their businesses tomorrow.

They weren't stupid in 2-3 regards, yeah. For everything else that I chatted with them I'd call them stupid and be very confident in my opinion.

IQ is only important in the reverse direction: i.e. if it's below a certain minimum. From one point and on, whether you are e.g. at 100 or 170 doesn't matter much.

> 2. they often sleep a lot less

It's surprising that in 2022 we're still romanticizing this. Even young and energetic people can be severely debilitated by maintaining 4-5 hours of sleep a day for some mere 3 to 6 months (and I've experienced this myself, and I've seen it in dozens of acquaintances and colleagues).

The most resilient person to lack of sleep I've met is myself. I maintained a crazy sleep schedule AND was unhealthy for 13 or so years. Eventually it catches up with you. I actually understood my cognition got impaired one day, panicked, then took deep breaths and start putting myself back on track. This was 6-9 months ago and from then on I keep getting better and better at my job (again) and I heal gradually.

"Sleep less"... just no. This meme should die for good.

Seems that you bought the entrepreneur propaganda books.

> 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2).

It helps if you're born that way but you can also cultivate it with diet and exercise. Or, you can be cautious and strategic and still succeed. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

> 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4)

Same as sleep, this is very temporary. Be exposed to stress and uncertainty for a year and it will break you.

You might be confusing "stressful situations because you might actually live under a bridge and feed off of trash cans if you keep failing" with "uncertain situations in which the person thrives, because they are a gambler by heart, but they have a safety net or investors" here.

---

Sure chronic depression doesn't help but you should also account for the fact that too many failures can and do lead to depression as well. Most success advice completely ignores survivor bias and that's a shame because it ruins the chances of a good quality discussion.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#123

Post by burntoutfire »

pdimitar wrote: post #117
WalterBright wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the simple act of trying will improve your odds of success. Some basic strategies: 1. stay in school 2. don't do drugs 3. don't do crimes If you want to be a pro basketball player, your odds will improve if you practice playing basketball. Want to be a guitar god? Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot , for many many years, before breaking…

You do realize you're defending the position of "let's increase your odds from 0.001% to 0.5%", right? You are kind of citing baseline expectations and not success boosters here. Additionally, to play basketball for "many, many years", somebody has to pay your bills in the meantime. A luxury that most of the world does not have -- namely you being able to go all-in on your dream. Rent is still due next month.

Usually, the basketball playing happens when rent is still paid by parents.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#124

Post by burntoutfire »

inter_netuser wrote: post #77
lampe3 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain a little bit more? What odds? What part of that successful people do? What do you mean by loser?

>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…

Actually, a lot of successful artists and thinkers were pretty ill and/or depressed - e.g. Nietzsche, Proust.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#125

Post by sbilstein »

onion2k wrote: post #62
sbilstein wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep.... Bootstrapping is for fools. Virtually no founders out there are pouring their personal savings into their company. The issues with bootstrapping: 1) No one to tell you to give up except your own survival instinct. 2) You've already told yourself to ignore that survival instinct because of the success stories you've heard. 3) Even if your idea is fantastic, there is another group of folks out there who have ra…

Virtually no founders out there are pouring their personal savings into their company. That definitely isn't true. Tens of thousands of companies are bootstrapped every year. Some go on to be quite successful (Github, GoPro, Apple...). You won't find all that many bootstrapped business founders posting on HN (it's run by an investment company...) but that doesn't mean they're not out there. Plus, due to the changing…

Take those assumptions and spend a year burning your savings. Once you see that all your competitors raised at least a few hundred k pre-product while you’ve got a hole burning in your pocket, you’ll feel like an idiot.

If you run an already profitable business like a services company, you can get away with bootstrapping. But then it’s not really bootstrapping, it’s a pivot.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#126

Post by SuoDuanDao »

lampe3 wrote: post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

I have a theory that a huge amount of what contributes to success, and effective advice for people seeking success, boils down to the placebo effect. If I'm right, the content of what success stories encourage us to do matters much less than how well we expect it to work.

I'm unsure how widely I should share that theory, since naming a placebo robs it of its power...

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#127

Post by burntoutfire »

throw8932894 wrote: post #37
cracrecry wrote: post #30

First thing you need to do is define the term: Success Living in the US of America is already a success compared with most other places in the world. Success for most people is not making a billion dollar company. Success for them is being able to raise a family, work on their own, pursue their interests and be free. In the US you can do that way easier than in the rest of the world. Billionaires are not happier than…

> Living in the US of America is already a success compared with most other places in the world. > Success for most people is not making a billion dollar company. Success for them is being able to raise a family, work on their own, pursue their interests and be free. In the US you can do that way easier than in the rest of the world. This is such self absorbed and delusional opinion! Your point proves point of the ar…

It's very easy to make very good money in the US, compared to practically anywhere else in the world. Mundane corporate IC paper-pushers with no discernible talent can make up to six figures - which is salary restricted to mid- and high-level management in most other industrialized countries.

What's more, taxes in the US are lower than in most other industrialized countries. In result, an (non-software) engineer in the US easily makes $5-7k after taxes, whereas in Europe we gets maybe half of that (not to mention that practically everything is more expensive in Europe). That extra money is crucial for setting up a comfortable family living. Not to mention he also gets pretty good health care coverage from his job, often better than what the "free" medical system in Europe provides.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#128

Post by 1kcah »

SuoDuanDao wrote: post #126
lampe3 wrote: post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

I have a theory that a huge amount of what contributes to success, and effective advice for people seeking success, boils down to the placebo effect. If I'm right, the content of what success stories encourage us to do matters much less than how well we expect it to work. I'm unsure how widely I should share that theory, since naming a placebo robs it of its power...

> since naming a placebo robs it of its power...

Search "knowing placebo still works"

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#130

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

dagw wrote: post #116
kkjjkgjjgg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I envy the people who can endure the drudgery and boredom of most jobs, and can therefore have stable longterm careers. You make it sound as if chasing ideas is the hard part, but for some people the opposite is the hard part.

I envy the people who can endure the drudgery and boredom of most jobs, and can therefore have stable longterm careers. I've had a stable, long term, stress free, career working at large 'boring' companies doing high level research projects with very smart people in areas I find fascinating, and that I'm still excited to get to work on. 'Boring' and 'stable' companies still have very cool problems they need to solve.

I didn't say big companies only have boring jobs, nor that all jobs are boring.
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