Besides the survivor bias, most success stories are also incomplete. The non glamorous parts get skipped. Look up who Bill Gates' mother is if you wonder how they got IBM to talk to them for MS-DOS in the first place.
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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#142Depends on what you see as success. Often times it equates to money and that’s a bad way to view success. A good deal of monetary success is by luck and/or exploitations.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#143From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…
In psychology, there is a concept linked to that: the labelling theory. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labeling_theory
Another way to see the points above, from philosophy, is https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sophism
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…
This is the dumbest thing I read in a while. It doesn’t account for survivor bias. How many people met all those criteria and failed? It could be that for every million with those characteristics, only 1 succeeded.
The list doesn't appear to be meant as a formula free of bias, rather just commonalities. So folks who lack those traits may be statistically less likely to succeed.
Interesting that the criteria come from being born that way and/or the outcome of a low stress and loving childhood. Neither of which a person can control for themselves.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#145I recommend people read the book “The Halo Effect”.
It’s not about individual success but corporate success. Basically it’s all BS and the book outlines some nice ways to identify it.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#146I always liked the quote "Most advice is people giving you their winning lottery ticket numbers". There is always something to learn from others but you can’t just take their exact circumstance and map it onto yours.
I like this one: I have seen something else under the sun: The race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all.
Ecclesiastes 9:11. :)
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#147Survivor bias is a thing. It reminds me of all the stories of the young college drop out with the successful company… that’s been funded by their rich parents.
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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
>What part of that successful people do? 1. they are rarely stupid 2. they often sleep a lot less 3. they more often than not are hyperthymiacs (related to #2). 4. they produce unlimited amounts of self-generated morale (related to #3). 5. they are stress tolerant (related to #4) 6. they are healthier in general (related to all of the above) I don't know very many successful people with numerous chronic health condit…
> 1. they are rarely stupid I know at least 5 people who are fairly stupid but were at the right place, the right evening, the right dinner and spoke with the right people. They all retired at 35 with tens of millions after taxes. They can coast on these savings for 10 years if they live lavishly and if they close all their businesses tomorrow. They weren't stupid in 2-3 regards, yeah. For everything else that I chat…
Successful people often need less sleep than what’s considered the norm. 5 hours for them is 8 hours for most people. Same with stress, stress tolerance is above the norm.
They’ve won the genetic lottery. Not every successful person has these traits of course. But enough to see a pattern.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't start with all these productivity systems... I tried them all. Keeping a second brain for me was just waste of time and being busy with writing stuff down. A quick google search was most often faster. Journaling after a full journal did not give me anything in return. Just a journal full of crap. Planing my whole week in a calendar when to do what... Good luck with a child doing that. Specially if you don't hav…
Healthy competition is the best motivator. Challenging each other does work but both parties have to give a shit. Another great motivator is being told you will never be able to do something, which gives fuel to the motivation in the form of spite.
That approach is problematic for some people. The depressive pile has already been mentioned, but we also have to consider that some people are less competitive than others. Some people are teachers or nurses until the day they retire. It isn't because they don't have what it takes to be principals or hospital administrators. A good many do so because that's where they see themselves doing the most good. In other cases, it is because they enjoy what they are doing. How many times have we seen developers mention that they feel pressured to go into management or being forced out of the industry as they get older? In other cases it is because people seek a better work-life balance. I left professional life largely due to the constant encroachment of work life on my personal life, and I suspect I am not unique.
There are other things to consider. Everyone who is employed serves a purpose, else they wouldn't be employed. It doesn't matter whether they're that paper pusher who exists solely to ensure everything is documented in the remote case of legal issues or the person who spawns a company that goes on to employ thousands of people. Sure, the latter feels more meaningful than the former, but that says more about our society than anything else (e.g. the failure of people to do their job, people wilfully breaking the law, frivolous or malicious litigation). Why should one group have more success when everyone is making a contribution?
Another thing to consider: in a world of large corporations that employ hundreds or thousands of people, a disproportionate number of people are at the bottom of the hierarchy. In a world of small businesses, there is hope of rising up the ranks, inheriting or buying out the business, or of setting out on your own. In a world of large corporations, there is only so much movement you can do and the form of competition to move up may not reflect the personality of those who are qualified.
Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have a theory that a huge amount of what contributes to success, and effective advice for people seeking success, boils down to the placebo effect. If I'm right, the content of what success stories encourage us to do matters much less than how well we expect it to work. I'm unsure how widely I should share that theory, since naming a placebo robs it of its power...
> since naming a placebo robs it of its power... Search "knowing placebo still works"
Very interesting, thanks for sharing! Though I wonder how that study accounted for the placebo effect ;^)