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Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

reuters.com

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Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#231

Post by PolandKid »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #205
esarbe wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It 100% is all about Russian preventing a rival military base in a border country. Not so sure about that. To me this looks more like a diversion from internal political problems, "Wag the dog" style.

It's slightly more than that. Russia (Putin) can't stand a successful democracy on his border, especially one that used to be in the USSR. For some reason, he ignores Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. But Ukraine? It's a direct threat to Putin's power if it is successful as a real democracy, if it turns toward the west. Not just because it diminishes Russia's sphere of influence, but because it shows a path that Russia…

Just to add - Putin defers action on the other neighbors rather than ignores. He'd be happy to weaken them internally or via disinfo campaigns.

Bigger fish to fry at the moment in his USSR2.0 drive.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#232

Post by smcl »

tomjen3 wrote: post #226
smcl wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That line of thinking worked well in Iraq and Afghanistan. Let's hope we have a nice quick, clean war like we did there

Yes, we are going to have that. We should just not be stupid enough to ever attempt to build democracy or any such nonsense. Go in, lay waste, get out, just like we should have done in Afghanistan.

> Go in, lay waste, get out

Lay waste to what? Ukraine? They're the country we're supposed to be worried about Russia invading here...

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#233

Post by dragonwriter »

Jansen312 wrote: post #207
dragonwriter wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout There's a whole lot of the Southwestern US you are agreeing that Mexico can and should invade and occupy, with a much stronger case, if you claim that this justifies Russia in Crimea.

In the end Crimea people did voted to rejoin Russia. Though not really legal, the people there have spoken their will. I would let that to rest. Invading Ukraine on the other hand is a big no. But, given we are now administer by old forgetful Biden, and Xi on the other side determine to get Taiwan, can we manage a 2-front war by 2 of the world superpower? EU is mostly headed by weak leadership (see Germany, Macron, a…

> In the end Crimea people did voted to rejoin Russia.

Cool, any invasion and occupation and annexation is justified if you stage a vote to retroactively justify it after the fact.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#234

Post by Cyberthal »

I for one am excited to die for the Dear and Duly Elected Massively Popular Joe Biden's prudent and rational Foreign Policy.

If the USA is to maintain its competitive fiat advantage, it must occasionally flatten the industrial capacities of competing world powers. Otherwise the world would be unsafe for democracy. We voters owe a great debt to the imminent sacrifices of the Ukrainian and Taiwanese peoples!

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#235

Post by rasz »

credit_guy wrote: post #211
rasz wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Ukraine claims they'll fight to the last drop of blood, but theory and practice are a bit disconnected when you are a garrison in a city that's being approached by a few tens of thousands of soldiers and a few thousand tanks. Thinks looks different still if 50 other cities surrendered without a fight by the time it's your turn. You have to be really insane. Poles did it at the start of WW2 resisting for a month http…

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or not. I think you are, but I simply can't say for sure.

Me neither. If they resist like Poles did they will die like Poles. Either in Ukraine, or in Russian concentration camps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre No one will help, not UN, not NATO, and especially not US.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#236

Post by credit_guy »

rasz wrote: post #235
credit_guy wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or not. I think you are, but I simply can't say for sure.

Me neither. If they resist like Poles did they will die like Poles. Either in Ukraine, or in Russian concentration camps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre No one will help, not UN, not NATO, and especially not US.

The Poles were attacked from both sides by Germany and Russia. They had treaties with the UK and France, and France had a large land army and they could have attacked Germany with a legitimate casus beli. The UK had very little capability to actually defend Poland. Once France did not attack Germany, there was indeed not much that Poland could do.

The situation is a bit different now. The US can't help with boots on the ground, or with any type of "kinetic response", but it can help Ukraine with intelligence, and maybe a bit of deniable cyber warfare.

The US has all the incentives to help Ukraine. Not to the extend of putting soldiers in harm's way, but the US doesn't like Russia becoming 30% larger in terms of population (and therefore military manpower). Moreover, if Ukraine falls, Belarus and Kazakhstan will "voluntarily join the union" in no time.

That's not something the US is keen to see happening on the global security chessboard.

But still, Putin knows all these things, and he likes his chances. We can only watch and see a grandmaster at play.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#237

Post by georgeecollins »

avmich wrote: post #89
georgeecollins wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that Russia is the bully in this case, but there is historical precedent for the bully to be the country that feels threatened. Before WW2 some Germans thought the that Germany would have to ally itself-- and become a client state-- to either the USSR or western powers in order to maintain its security. Going to war was insane, but the concern that Germany would become more of a client state than an independe…

> but there is historical precedent for the bully to be the country that feels threatened. Not really. Napoleon invasion was a rather silly directed move for a battle, not a war - too much weight on one individual. Great Patriotic War was fought after failure to prevent Hitler from amassing power and nurturing plans to conquer Europe (by Russians) - USSR needn't to repeat Daladier and Chamberlain mistakes, but Stalin…

Germany today is an important country but it has no major capability to attack or defend other nations. China, Russia and the US do.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#238

Post by loourr »

eternalban wrote: post #228
loourr wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes Ukraine is a sovereign nation but NATO is not. The US and Russia have an agreement that NATO will not encroach onto Russias border which allowing Ukraine to join (a US decision) would be a violation of. It's akin to arguing that Cuba joining a Russian military alliance and re-installing ICBMs on their territory is totally fine because Cuba is a sovereign nation and can do whatever they want.

There is no such agreement. Produce the documents. Also the Russian demands (per their 2 'treaty' proposals) is for restoration of geopolitical map to 1997. It is true (and interesting) that Western press tries to formulate this as "about Ukraine" but the documents (which are plain English) clearly demand a strategic retreat and restoration of spheres of influence between great powers. From the Russian perspective, i…

Great analysis, I agree with your points.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#239

Post by timeon »

eternalban wrote: post #229
nullifidian wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't blame Russia's stance. As a Russian I say you are completely wrong. The current crisis is entirely manufactured by Putin and his authoritarian needs, which are contrary to the actual needs of the Russian people. The Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, and there isn't much difference in nuke flight time between a launch from Latvia or from Kharkiv, so the entire premise that Ukraine potentially joining NATO so…

> The Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, and there isn't much difference in nuke flight time between a launch from Latvia or from Kharkiv, so the entire premise that Ukraine potentially joining NATO somehow threatens Russia is a ruse. This is true and Russia demands include ALL such installations after "1997". It is the Western press that has been formulating this as "about Ukraine". The documents btw are publicly pu…

But we are free people now. We do not want to be Russian colony again.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#240

Post by timeon »

shashurup wrote: post #169
nullifidian wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the idea of "Russkiy mir", USSR falling apart being a "_geopolitical_ catastrophe" (only an imperialist would say something like that), USSR in general being viewed positively by the media, its every act of imperialism like Prague Spring, or the attempt to keep Latvia in the USSR viewed exclusively positively in "documentaries", even positive coverage of the imperialism of the Russian empire (the Great Game) and s…

The reason why any state tries to present its history in a positive light is a different question. Good things are exaggerated, bad things are smoothed over. The states doing the opposite just doesn't live long. Being positive about USSR and Russian empire and pushing the idea of restoring it are pretty different things. There are no ideas such as rebuilding USSR (or Russian empire) pushed by local media. > even posi…

> The reason why any state tries to present its history in a positive light is a different question. Good things are exaggerated, bad things are smoothed over. The states doing the opposite just doesn't live long.

But this is not really present in many countries.

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