Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you name an example of one of these invasions?
Is that a serious question? World War 2 for starters...
on 17 September of 1939, right?
Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
201–210 of 241 posts
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
from the Russian point of view, offering NATO membership to Ukraine is an act of agression and they've been wrecking Ukraine for this ever since.
A foreign country joining an alliance could be an act of aggression only if you believe that that foreign country is yours, and shouldn't have the freedom to decide its associations or the way it secures itself. The Russians are talking about "spheres of influence", which is an entirely imperialistic concept, and demand to have their's respected, which is imperialistic behavior.
While I agree with your point, it's not quite that simple. Putin remembers history, specifically WWII. The Germans launched their invasion from the middle of Poland, and they nearly broke the USSR. Being able to launch it from the eastern edge of Ukraine is a terrifying thought to him.
Now, there is exactly zero appetite anywhere in NATO for invading Russia. But Putin doesn't understand that - doesn't understand that, when the leaders have to answer to the voters in elections that they could lose, the leaders have to be very wary of body counts. So Putin is terrified of a fantasy, but his terror is still at least somewhat real. It's not all bullying.
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the same isolationist indifference by the US and Chamberlain's UK precipitating WW2. No is better off when the world gives free rein for authoritarians to exploit other peoples. The US and NATO isn't going to war over Ukraine. They will slap Russia with harsher sanctions (still won't cut off gas though!), cut them from SWIFT financial transactions, at which point Russian banks will switch to Russian SPFS whic…
OK, that's fair. I am actually curious though about your take on the sanctions. Do you have any resources to recommend for reading up on this SWIFT system and the SPFS alternative? And does this imply that Europe and China will side with Russia against the US?
Here's some good context from Alperovitch, Russian-American founder of CrowdStrike that now does international cybersecurity policy: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1478353987480997897
The wiki for SWIFT is a good start, imagine SPFS as SWIFT just under Russian gov. control. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interban...
It's not so much that Europe and China will "side" against the US, as they will not care enough about Russia's actions to deter them from trading with Russia. Europe will obviously care a lot more about Russia's aggression, but they are going through major energy price pains right now and they likely won't stomach further supply decreases by stopping gas trade with Russia.
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is indeed an annexation. But it is also true that the majority of the inhabitants of Crimea are Russians and wanted to return to join Russia. But all the consequences, not the cause. The reason, in my opinion, is the global conflict between the West and Russia. And, obviously, the fall of Russia is just a matter of time. Despite the fact that they have weapons, in everyday life, all residents use technologies and…
I have not seen any data on the crimeans actually bring a majority ethnic Russians and eager to 'return' to Russia (which one? USSR ? Catherine's Russian empire? ...?). They just did a very questionable referendum once Crimea was occupied to annex the territory.
Crimea being majority Russian ethnicity is not disputed like the referendum is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Demographics
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
the first part of the video by that professor, explains that ukraine is a very divided country, it's made up by two different groups of people, ukrainian-speakers and russian-speakers. So you gotta take this into account when considering what "Ukraine" wants. > Russian security assurances aren't about trying to defend the country against an encroaching NATO, but rather trying to restore as much as possible the domina…
> It 100% is all about Russian preventing a rival military base in a border country. Not so sure about that. To me this looks more like a diversion from internal political problems, "Wag the dog" style.
It's slightly more than that. Russia (Putin) can't stand a successful democracy on his border, especially one that used to be in the USSR. For some reason, he ignores Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. But Ukraine? It's a direct threat to Putin's power if it is successful as a real democracy, if it turns toward the west. Not just because it diminishes Russia's sphere of influence, but because it shows a path that Russians could take - a path that leaves Putin not at the top of "the vertical of power".
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#206I don't blame Russia's stance. I blame the cold war and the US's two pronged approach to most diplomacy matters. NATO was formed to halt the power of the soviet union. once the soviet union fell. NATO should've been disbanded. anyone with a pea of a brain would've seen the consequences of not abandoning nato, and now we're about to pay for those mistakes.
as a follow up, I should add that I'm not advocating for Ukraine to be invaded. War is a racket. I'm advocating for things military alliances like Nato etc to be abandoned in times of peace.
These aren't times of peace. These are times of teetering on the knife-edge of open war.
And we learned a while ago about being unprepared when the shooting starts. It's not fun.
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.
> To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout There's a whole lot of the Southwestern US you are agreeing that Mexico can and should invade and occupy, with a much stronger case, if you claim that this justifies Russia in Crimea.
In the end Crimea people did voted to rejoin Russia. Though not really legal, the people there have spoken their will. I would let that to rest. Invading Ukraine on the other hand is a big no. But, given we are now administer by old forgetful Biden, and Xi on the other side determine to get Taiwan, can we manage a 2-front war by 2 of the world superpower? EU is mostly headed by weak leadership (see Germany, Macron, and recent Boris debacle). Coming spring we might even enter a property crash with high inflation. American got the appetite to save Ukraine? Taiwan maybe given we addicted to chips and general Sino-phobia.
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
Russia has controlled Crimea since the 18th century. It's not an artifact of Soviet Union. >All these regional problems are mainly due to the language. If Ukraine allowed Russian as it's second official (or at least regional) language, Donbas would return back in a blink. And Crimea might follow. What? History goes back farther than the 20th century.
> History goes back farther than the 20th century. And much farther than 18th century. Crimea has a long and rich history, Russian power is relatively young and not justified in the modern world. Wasn't one of the ideas of Helsinki's agreements to agree on non pursuing historical territorial disputes?
History counts. Otherwise you wont have territorial issue especially pushed by China and Israel. Helsinki has no gun power to enforce anything. It is based on mutual respect and adherence. At this moment, Crimean people wants Russia whether it is legal or not. Russia has bigger guns than Ukraine and at least on par with Americans at their home ground. What is Ukraine worth to you than the smartphone in your hand? Should you worry about a brilliant tactician that make Obama like a pigeon or a Sino leader hell-bent to acquire back their territory at half the population life cost (read Mao's history on theorectical US invasion)? The bear will most likely make a few slight of hand moves to acquire their objectives with minimal lost of lives. The dragon-snake on other side is and will be very blunt.
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.
> To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout There's a whole lot of the Southwestern US you are agreeing that Mexico can and should invade and occupy, with a much stronger case, if you claim that this justifies Russia in Crimea.
My comment wasn’t to condone invasions, per se. But it’s unfair to say Russia had/has _no_ legitimate stake in Crimea. Texas came about almost exactly by the method you describe. If in the future Mexico has the military might to retake Texas, they might decide to do it. Who knows future Texans might welcome it. I mean the USA invaded two sovereign nations states in recent decades with dubious international legal basis.
Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
A foreign country joining an alliance could be an act of aggression only if you believe that that foreign country is yours, and shouldn't have the freedom to decide its associations or the way it secures itself. The Russians are talking about "spheres of influence", which is an entirely imperialistic concept, and demand to have their's respected, which is imperialistic behavior.
While I agree with your point, it's not quite that simple. Putin remembers history, specifically WWII. The Germans launched their invasion from the middle of Poland, and they nearly broke the USSR. Being able to launch it from the eastern edge of Ukraine is a terrifying thought to him. Now, there is exactly zero appetite anywhere in NATO for invading Russia. But Putin doesn't understand that - doesn't understand that…
>it's not quite that simple.
It is.
>launched their invasion
You are reproducing Russian propaganda planted all over the English speaking internet. About Russia's desire to secure itself through buffer zones, when in reality it's just plain old imperialism.
Geographical buffer zones and natural borders like mountains are mostly irrelevant for modern air-superiority dominated warfare. It's not 1940s anymore. US expeditionary force is delivered by the sea. An attack could already be launched from the Baltic states, since about 2004. And Putin perfectly knows that nobody would attack a state that has the highest number nuclear warheads in the world.
Ascribing some level of care for Russian interests and security to someone like Putin is the height of naivete. Putin will leave Russia much much weaker and thus less secure after his death, than the 99 other timelines, where it isn't ruled by an egotistical wannabe tsar. He only cares about himself, his family and his friends, and that's it.
If he truly cared about Russian future he wouldn't have started the current conflict with Ukraine that's been going on since 2014, because the economic losses from that over 2-3 decades are tremendous. A difference in 2-3 percentage points of GDP growth results in several times the economy size of losses. And further escalation would cripple the economy even more.