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Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

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Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#171

Post by dragonwriter »

elcritch wrote: post #34
baal80spam wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. Remember that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea "to save Russian citizens".

To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.

> To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout

There's a whole lot of the Southwestern US you are agreeing that Mexico can and should invade and occupy, with a much stronger case, if you claim that this justifies Russia in Crimea.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#172

Post by mike_k »

vizzah wrote: post #54
elcritch wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.

There was no imminent danger to those inhabitans when Russia annexed. They just seized the opportunity to take back important xUSSR territory. The inhabitants are mostly happy, though, as they were promised new horizons and no mandatory Ukrainian language, which they never spoken. All these regional problems are mainly due to the language. If Ukraine allowed Russian as it's second official (or at least regional) lang…

> There was no imminent danger to those inhabitans when Russia annexed.

Please tell this to many thousands of people who moved out and never looked back. Also, hundreds of Crimean Tatar and various active citizens were imprisoned during these years. The danger is very real if you are not willing to keep your mouth shut there.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#173

Post by mike_k »

andreygrehov wrote: post #31

Here is an interesting lecture Vladimir Pozner (Russian journalist) gave at the Yale University about Putin, the Unites States and Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7Ng75e5gQ It's 3 years old, but relevant up until today, imho.

Regardless of the content, it should be noted that Pozner had (and probably still has) a very nice broadcast time on one of the most popular Russia's channels. He is smart enough not to look like an obvious regime proponent, but he is far from being very critical, AFAIK. He is like a figure made for all those "liberal" conformists, who think they are very progressive.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#174

Post by nullifidian »

shashurup wrote: post #169
nullifidian wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the idea of "Russkiy mir", USSR falling apart being a "_geopolitical_ catastrophe" (only an imperialist would say something like that), USSR in general being viewed positively by the media, its every act of imperialism like Prague Spring, or the attempt to keep Latvia in the USSR viewed exclusively positively in "documentaries", even positive coverage of the imperialism of the Russian empire (the Great Game) and s…

The reason why any state tries to present its history in a positive light is a different question. Good things are exaggerated, bad things are smoothed over. The states doing the opposite just doesn't live long. Being positive about USSR and Russian empire and pushing the idea of restoring it are pretty different things. There are no ideas such as rebuilding USSR (or Russian empire) pushed by local media. > even posi…

>Good things are exaggerated, bad things are smoothed over.

They present bad things(imperialism) as good things. Today.

>What is wrong with empires by then?

It's like asking what's wrong with slavery or serfdom in the 19th century.

>Are we supposed to condemn that?

Maybe not present it at prime time on TV, in a way that tells the audience that Russian/Soviet imperialism was a great thing, was sorely needed, and today's actions are a continuation of these great deeds, right before the "news" segment with its usual "these westerners are out to get our poor "Russki Mir"?

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#175

Post by shashurup »

mrguyorama wrote: post #119
bumby wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. I mean, isn't this also the tactic used in the late 1800s in the western U.S. to give a reason to pacify Native Americans? Promote U.S. citizens into frontier homesteads and then use the military to protect them/annex land?

Yes, and we did the same thing to mexico in order to grab texas. How the heck does this change how bad it is? What's the point of saying "America bad too"? So? America HAS done awful things in the past, that's not valid justification for a hostile annexation of another country's land. Topics on Russia ALWAYS have whataboutism nonsense. It seems supporters of Russian actions so badly want the rest of the world to be s…

I believe the reason is that russians often perceive western worldview as a voice from the ivory tower of free world implying some kind of moral superiority. The whataboutism is just an awkward attempt to decline this very moral superiority.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#176

Post by labster »

nivenkos wrote: post #45
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why not offer NATO membership to both Ukraine and Russia? NATO is a mutual defence pact. Russia is the most militarily aggressive country in Europe. Agreeing to defend the bully when their chickens come home to roost is a tough sell.

Most of them are internal conflicts though. It's not such a crazy idea really, but I'd rather we just abolished NATO entirely. I'm no fan of Russia, but I don't want to go to war just because they shoot down a Turkish fighter plane in Syria, etc.

That’s not how NATO works. It’s a defense pact not a suicide pact. In any military action outside their territory, other countries are not obligated to help. Admittedly casus belli are often a bit of a stretch, but so far NATO has never joined an aggressive war. Various countries chose to join the American Crusade in Iraq but the war in Afghanistan was certainly started in defense.

NATO has ensured 70 years of peace in Western Europe. There hasn’t been a period this peaceful since the Pax Romana, which still had plenty of wars. Why mess up a good thing? Less people die in wars now. And while the value in trade and infrastructure compared to land is certainly a part of ensuring the peace, that was also true for the decades preceding the Great War. The modern international order is simply more peaceful.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#177

Post by mid »

chasd00 wrote: post #11

why is NATO a threat? Has NATO ever started a conflict, seized territory, or imposed sanctions? Genuinely asking, I pretty ignorant here.

NATO bombed Yugoslavia in 1999 without UN authorization under the pretext of "humanitarian intervention". See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#178

Post by joeman1000 »

beginning_end wrote: post #53

I found Adam Tooze's overview very interesting: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challen...

Finding this tough to read, the author writes poorly. I’m not saying the meaning is bad though, just that the writer should read more classics.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#179

Post by credit_guy »

Highly recommend "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" by John Mearsheimer.

For Russia, annexing (all or part of) Ukraine now is too good a deal to pass. Russia knows that invading with an overwhelming force will result in a virtually bloodless annexation, just like the Taliban took over Afghanistan in a matter of weeks, and just like they themselves took over Crimea. Ukraine claims they'll fight to the last drop of blood, but theory and practice are a bit disconnected when you are a garrison in a city that's being approached by a few tens of thousands of soldiers and a few thousand tanks. Thinks looks different still if 50 other cities surrendered without a fight by the time it's your turn.

Russia is a country in the middle of a population collapse. They are less than 145 MM now, projected to get to 125 MM by 2050. Their great power aspirations dwindle by the day. But adding Ukraine, Belarus, Khazakstan and Uzbekistan brings an immediate boost of more than 100 MM. Every night Putin puts his head on the pillow, these things swirl in his head, "one hundred million more Russians", "Mother Russia great again", "they disrespect us now, we'll show them who's the boss", "enough is enough", etc, etc.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#180

Post by avmich »

kingofpandora wrote: post #154
avmich wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Care to provide examples? Crimea annexation was almost bloodless, right, but annexation nevertheless - ?

The obvious answer is Kosovo.

Stopping the terrorization of differently-religious people and preventing repetition of Rwanda-like genocide is worse and for less?
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