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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#381

Post by CrazyStat »

posnet wrote: post #288
hobs wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they've been actively harming that idea by then canceling pretty much everything by the third season.

I keep hearing this from people, so I must be in the minority. But I actually like the fact that they do limited run or self contained shows. Not only does it mean that the show doesn't drag on for 10 seasons slowly reducing in quality until it's axed due to waning viewership. But I've found their limited series runs to be more engaging since the writers and director are able to tell a self contained and complete sto…

I'm with you. If a show ends after two solid seasons I might wish there was more, but I'd rather that than watch it descend into an additional six seasons of mediocrity as so often happens.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#382

Post by ghaff »

Apocryphon wrote: post #371
ghaff wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FAANG was originally about hot stocks. Jim Cramer coined it. And then, in tech circles, it became mostly about compensation--which had some correlation but imperfectly. Today, especially with Netflix being less unique technically (they did a lot of early out-of-the-box stuff like going all in on AWS and microservices), they're pretty much an outlier from the other companies although as far as I know they still pay ve…

They also seem much smaller than the other companies, smaller than Microsoft certainly.

They're (relatively speaking) tiny. About 12,000 employees. That's in the ballpark of 10% the size of Microsoft and Alphabet, 20% the size of Facebook. That's about the same number of employees as you'll find at a lot of tech companies you'd consider medium-sized at most.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#384

Post by HWR_14 »

devmunchies wrote: post #351
cogman10 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

I'm surprised Netflix hasn't been buying IP owners or aggressively expanding into other entertainment channels. Imagine if they straight up acquired Nintendo (or a large part of it), the amount of movies + series they could produce (zelda series like the witcher, donkey kong animated series for kids, metroid prime series for adults, star fox, etc)

Iirc, Nintendo has too many large shareholders to ever be acquireable. How they let Disney and Amazon purchase Marvel, Star Wars and Paramount for around 5 billion a piece without jumping in I'll never understand.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#385

Post by [deleted] »

jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

[deleted]

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#386

Post by asveikau »

psyc wrote: post #356
KrazyButTrue wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is simply not true

Well, when I left in 2010 it was extremely true. Not even remotely in the ballpark. According to Levels.fyi they pay about 50% more now, but still less than any FAANG.

My impression when I was at MS was that they hire you at a competitive market salary, and their HR claims to do surveys and keep your yearly increases in line with market rates, however it seemed pretty easy for increases to not keep pace with market rate increases, in part because the market rate has increased pretty steadily lately.

I don't think they're the only ones with this issue. Job hoppers can get bigger raises than people staying and climbing the ladder "the old fashioned way".

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#387

Post by mrshadowgoose »

jrsj wrote: post #173
jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

Google to me seems to be the one with the worst execution at the moment. For all of their spend in various areas when is the last time they’ve had a win? Their core business is still strong but they seem to have lost their ability to innovate. That alone makes their decline seem inevitable to me even without considering external forces

Totally agree that the pace of innovation in their core business seems to have stalled. However, I'd argue that Waymo (Google subsidiary) is leading the pack, by far, in terms of self-driving capability.

Not only do they have publicly-usable self-driving vehicles on the road today, they are also testing autonomous trucks for freight. Both of these industries are worth multiple 10's of billions/year in the U.S. alone.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#388

Post by ghaff »

nightski wrote: post #378
ghaff wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see very little evidence that Netflix' data science has been a unique differentiator. For what they've developed, they have some hits and quite a few duds. Their licensed catalog is not exceptional--and even less exceptional when it comes to film. They'll likely mostly turn into another studio with a streaming platform.

You are judging them based on perceived quality. There is the potential mistake. Have you considered that maybe quality isn't the most important factor at all times? Or maybe that what you perceive as quality is not what most people are looking for?

Fair enough. They care about subscriber numbers. Although there's probably some correlation with quality so long as you equate the term with quality that appeals to a fairly mainstream audience (i.e. not Euro arthouse fare).

But I don't actually see Netflix programming as aiming to make, e.g. reality TV drek. Most of their programming does seem to be aiming for midbrow quality although it often doesn't hit it.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#389

Post by joshlemer »

captainmuon wrote: post #368
raydev wrote: post #233

I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here. FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left. I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see…

Facebook is for old people now. I organized an event for new students at the university and we had a discussion in the team whether we should advertize on FB or whether it would even be a hindrance because FB is not cool. We then agreed to post it there after all because people expect "serious" information such as dates of university events on Facebook. I don't post regularly on Facebook, because my old FB friends ar…

I don't think it's inappropriate to add people you meet on Facebook in your late 30's. Don't miss out on a chance to become friends with someone just because you think FB adding is a faux pas!

Also, where else would you post an event details page aside from Facebook? Meetup? That's even more dead..

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#390

Post by HWR_14 »

dhosek wrote: post #295
cam0 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but Netflix has gotten really good at this over the past 10 years. They create/fund some great content (and a lot of mediocre/bad content) - kind of similar to a VC fund now that I'm writing this out. They're an integral component of the entertainment industry now.

I was thinking as I was leaving the movie theater over the weekend and saw a poster for some movie billed as an Amazon Studios production that Google and Facebook are the only ones in the FAANG who aren't producing TV/movies. It will be very interesting to see how that progresses over the next decade. I want to believe that the data-driven approach that Netflix and Amazon have taken with their productions won't be th…

Google and Facebook are very much in the video space, they are just trying to crowdsource it.

And YouTube has a lot of ad supported movies and shows they are starting to roll out.

Meanwhile Meta is very much trying to develop interactive VR content.

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