Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead? • Hacker News Board

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#371

Post by Apocryphon » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:54 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #353

lotsofpulp wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of this poll eludes me due to including Netflix and excluding Microsoft.

FAANG was originally about hot stocks. Jim Cramer coined it. And then, in tech circles, it became mostly about compensation--which had some correlation but imperfectly. Today, especially with Netflix being less unique technically (they did a lot of early out-of-the-box stuff like going all in on AWS and microservices), they're pretty much an outlier from the other companies although as far as I know they still pay ve…

They also seem much smaller than the other companies, smaller than Microsoft certainly.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#372

Post by neogodless » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:55 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #354

neogodless wrote: post #328

It's interesting... Apple was originally founded in 1976, about a year after Microsoft. But we often hear about and think about FAANG, like with this poll. What sets Microsoft apart from this group? They are "older" though, being older than Apple is more a measure of how long they've been successful. Microsoft and Apple often battle for larger market capitalization. They both deliver software and hardware, and the tw…

>But we often hear about and think about FAANG, like with this poll. What sets Microsoft apart from this group? Fang is a catchy word, and the "m" does not neatly fit into it or an alternative acronym that is as catchy.

If only we could include the Boring company, along with Alphabet, Netflix, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.

BANAMAM!

Without it, MANAMA!

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#373

Post by jonwinstanley » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:57 PM UTC

devmunchies wrote: post #317

jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

> Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly However, if the app store were to open up, it could create a more vibrant ecosystem underneath and even create even more network effects within ios. Less direct money for apple but more vibrant developer economy.

"Monopoly" is an interesting term in this situation. Obviously they are the sole provider of the iOS platform access, but iOS itself is not the largest smartphone platform.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#374

Post by HWR_14 » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:57 PM UTC

addicted wrote: post #321

nr2x wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That said, until other streaming services entered the scene I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is. The only service comparable is YouTube, but even then, Netflix has much higher quality. HBO Max has a great content library, but barely works.

Have you used HBO Max recently? Aside from the first month or so it’s been nearly flawless for me across a variety of platforms (Roku/Chromecast/iPhone). And the first month pains were very clearly because it was rushed out to time it with the release of certain IPs during the pandemic.

They still don't have a way to turn off auto play for the next episode. That's a basic feature and they're missing it.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#375

Post by muzzio » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:58 PM UTC

I'd say in terms of relevancy, either facebook or netflix:

- Netflix already feels like an outlier in that list because they're not as technically focused as any of the other ones listed. They feel more like a media company these days, not a tech company, and as time goes on there's less and less differentiating them from any other media company/streaming service.

- If Metaverse doesn't pan out for them, I don't see either FB or Insta having a revival in popularity in the coming years. The only family I have still under 20 have deleted or abandoned FB, and I don't see the younger generation bothering with the "keep up with family" social network, and Insta keeps getting its lunch eaten with all its competitors. It feels like Insta is going to get a competitor at some point that will take its main offering (photographic status updates, basically) and then it'll suffer the same fate of irrelevancy.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#376

Post by more_corn » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:58 PM UTC

Isn’t it MAANA now? Meta > Facebook Alphabet > Google

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#377

Post by GeekyBear » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:58 PM UTC

The biggest recent change is that Amazon has thrown away it's reputation for being a reliable customer service focused marketplace in favor of being a marketplace for (too often substandard if not outright fraudulent) third party partners.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#378

Post by nightski » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:59 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #309

jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

I see very little evidence that Netflix' data science has been a unique differentiator. For what they've developed, they have some hits and quite a few duds. Their licensed catalog is not exceptional--and even less exceptional when it comes to film. They'll likely mostly turn into another studio with a streaming platform.

You are judging them based on perceived quality. There is the potential mistake. Have you considered that maybe quality isn't the most important factor at all times? Or maybe that what you perceive as quality is not what most people are looking for?

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#379

Post by lostcolony » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 10:00 PM UTC

dageshi wrote: post #327

xyzzy_plugh wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is. This is poignant as even the shittiest streaming service can dominate with the right IP. Content is king, engineering quality is not a differentiator. Because of this, Netflix is ripe for disruption, which we've been witnessing creep up slowly over the last decade. Netflix is easily the first of my several subscriptions to hit the chopping block, should…

If you follow the ratings (granted the ratings for streaming services are likely not as easy to calculate as network tv), Netflix pretty much dominates top 10 most watched shows every week. It's weaker on Movies but still does pretty well there as well. If netflix keeps producing content at the rate it is, it won't be long until it has a fairly large back catalogue itself. At the end of the day it's Netflix's core bu…

Yep. Netflix correctly saw that if it was successful at streaming, content holders would be quick to try and cut it out as a middleman. They've had their sight on being a content producer since very early on, and have been extremely successful at it. There are many people out there who can only afford a few streaming services, and Netflix remains a top choice to hold, despite the fact they license comparatively little top tier US content any more.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#380

Post by dlainhart » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 10:01 PM UTC

dageshi wrote: post #327

xyzzy_plugh wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is. This is poignant as even the shittiest streaming service can dominate with the right IP. Content is king, engineering quality is not a differentiator. Because of this, Netflix is ripe for disruption, which we've been witnessing creep up slowly over the last decade. Netflix is easily the first of my several subscriptions to hit the chopping block, should…

If you follow the ratings (granted the ratings for streaming services are likely not as easy to calculate as network tv), Netflix pretty much dominates top 10 most watched shows every week. It's weaker on Movies but still does pretty well there as well. If netflix keeps producing content at the rate it is, it won't be long until it has a fairly large back catalogue itself. At the end of the day it's Netflix's core bu…

Netflix can calculate their equivalent to Nielsen ratings preposterously easy and with far more accuracy and they can get far more data than Nielsen will ever be able to produce for anyone.