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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#301

Post by 7thaccount »

RussianCow wrote: post #251
cogman10 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

> With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. The thing is, they now pump out their own content quickly enough that they don't need anyone else's anymore, and as I understand it, that was always their goal. I imagine most of the TV-watching popu…

The Witcher series has been pretty successful. I wish they did more like that. You can only do so many big box shows though.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#302

Post by [deleted] »

b9a2cab5 wrote: post #230
jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

Netflix is already on the way down. They infused all of their new shows with wokeness. Every new show feels like woke concepts are shoehorned in without regard for their impact on the story that's told. Look at the Witcher for an example. Or if you want to see this kind of shift happening over the course of a show, look at Madam Secretary. Season 1 didn't feature any of this crap and showed a strong woman main charac…

[deleted]

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#303

Post by philjohn »

missedthecue wrote: post #33
artemonster wrote: post #15

I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.

I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. Now its mostly just Netflix originals which aren't necessarily bad but maybe not worth it's own subscription every month.

The only reason I still have Netflix is because it's essentially free on my satellite TV package - I think I pay £2 extra a month because it's mostly covered by their "on demand" package, which I wanted anyway.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#304

Post by scrollaway »

As of this post, scores are 748 FB, 28 AMZN, 29 AAPL, 262 NFLX, 128 GOOG

"Decline" is also not defined. I am interpreting it as "lose a significant amount of users", not as a question to predict their stock price.

I voted Amazon, and given the scores, I feel compelled to explain why.

- AWS is a massive beast within Amazon, and it seems increasingly likely that it'll be spun up into its own company

- Beyond its other attempts at diversifying, Amazon-the-marketplace is garnering worse and worse reputation. Unless they severely change their ways, other players will catch up. Amazon's huge sell to customers used to be its product reliability and customer support. Both of these have suffered tremendously.

- Covid accelerated a lot of the online trends which makes me think Amazon is past its peak.

I could elaborate but it's getting late. FB the website will likely decline in the coming years, but MZ has shown an astounding capacity of staying ahead of trends and buying winners (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). Netflix I do find likely to decline but not as much as Amazon, and most of all Netflix still has lots of potential for growth. Google seems Too Big To Fail, at best my gut says they will stagnate. And apple I just don't know enough about but they seem very safe.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#305

Post by ozim »

cogman10 wrote: post #185
monkeybutton wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix is facing the rise of competing streaming platforms. They're forced into creating their own content because other producers would rather release content on their own platforms and keep all the streaming revenue, rather than license it to Netflix. Streaming video on demand isn't a technical moat that is stopping anyone.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

They still have a chance because they had quite a success on getting non-US IP like "Money Heist" and "Squid Game".

I believe there are loads of production companies from all over the world willing to sell their productions to Netflix after those successes.

Producers in non English speaking countries will usually not have enough funding to promote all over the world or even in US.

I think Disney and HBO are quite stuck in approach where they sell rights and shows to other countries.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#306

Post by dhosek »

throwawayboise wrote: post #211
cercatrova wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix still offers their DVD service.

Does anyone use it? I am thinking that people are so accustomed to immediate online gratification that waiting a day or three for a DVD in the mail is just not something a lot of people will do anymore. That means you are going to have to think ahead about what you want to watch, and plan a time to do it, rather than just flopping down on the couch and surfing to find whatever catches your eye. And many people don't…

I do. There are a bunch of movies I have on my list that fall into the one day I want to watch this category. I do have the cheapest plan because they closed the Chicago-area distribution center and it was hard to get enough DVDs per month with shipping times for anything more generous to be cost-effective.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#307

Post by dehrmann »

disambiguation wrote: post #297

Order of decline: Netflix, Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple. Netflix because their moat isn't strong enough. Facebook because of monetized-ads model and backlash against social media in general. Google also because of monetized-ads model and declining quality of search results. Amazon and Apple are relatively safe IMO. Amazon is the most at risk from unionization and regulation, potentially breaking up their business…

You called out decline in Google's SERP quality, but not issues with third-party sellers and fake reviews on Amazon?

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#308

Post by greedo »

gordon_freeman wrote: post #90
calvinmorrison wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clint Eastwood did like 90000 movies, why are there only like 3 on Netflix? That but for every actor. Its like on-demand now rather than a catalog you rent.

For this reason, I do have Netflix DVD subscription along with Netflix streaming. At least until now, I feel that there is still vast catalog of movies available to choose from their DVD service unlike their streaming one. Obviously waiting for DVDs to arrive is a hassle in comparison to watch-at-any-time streaming but that's ok tradeoff for the freedom it gives me to chose a title to watch from its vast DVD and Blue…

I used to be a Netflix DVD customer until last year (so roughly a decade or so?). But between the shrinking catalog and poor quality control (broken or unplayable discs), it became too much. I cancelled my sub and spent the $15/month buying Blu-Ray discs that never get taken out of the catalog. I get them faster (Amazon shipping is far better than NFlix), and since they're new, I rarely have any playback problems.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#309

Post by ghaff »

jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

I see very little evidence that Netflix' data science has been a unique differentiator. For what they've developed, they have some hits and quite a few duds. Their licensed catalog is not exceptional--and even less exceptional when it comes to film.

They'll likely mostly turn into another studio with a streaming platform.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#310

Post by tomdell »

Voted for Facebook. The “Meta” rebranding reeks of desperation. They have only maintained growth by purchasing competitors and their main platform is dying. As others have said, each generation wants to differentiate itself from the previous one, so social media networks wax and wane as time goes on. Facebook bought IG and WhatsApp, but regulators are waking up and are likely to prevent their next attempt to purchase a big competitor. VR is going to remain a smaller market than social media, no potential to get bigger than the video games console market because it is primarily used for video games and will stay that way.
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