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Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

brusselstimes.com

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Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#251

Post by midasuni »

tome wrote: post #49
petercooper wrote: post #25

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

> the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK Really? Do you have a reference for that? It doesn't match the experience of myself and others that I know. Everyone I know was talking about how great it was that they hadn't had a cold for so long, during the lockdowns.

My family has been ill several times in the last 6 weeks (including covid) - more than the previous 2 years put together. Anecdotal but personally interesting

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#252

Post by pessimizer »

henrikschroder wrote: post #234
petercooper wrote: post #25

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

Note that the flu disappeared pretty much everywhere, regardless of interventions and restrictions. The likelihood that lockdowns or masks eradicated the flu is very low. More probable explanations are that we pretty much shut down international travel, which is how new flu strains get around, or that the coronavirus out-competed the flu, by being more easily transmitted.

This would be very interesting if I knew it was true. Any specific references with flu stats by state/country?

I also feel like lockdowns are a red herring in discussions like this. People not being locked down by force of law doesn't mean that a huge amount of people are minimizing their contact with other people.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#253

Post by midasuni »

austinjp wrote: post #111
_dain_ wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not in England they aren't

Ehm.... If there not exactly at capacity, the trend isn't looking great. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...

What we don’t have easy pubic access too is a breakdown of

1) total hospital admissions (not just those with covid but those without) and how that compares to a normal winter. If 4% of the country test positive for covid at the moment and 4% of hospital admissions have covid, that’s to be expected for example

2) age of those being admitted compared with covid by age

4) vaccination of those being admitted

There’s a chance that the Hugh number of cases is in those who are young and vaccinated and less likely to need hospitalisation, and we’ll soon reach peak transmission and cases will drop come January without it overwhelming hospitals.

There’s also a chance that it will spread to more vulnerable people, especially once school returns next week and grandparents start babysitting again, and hospitalisations will shoot up about 3rd/4th week in January as it spreads throughout the over 60s.

It’s not just a matter of dividing infections by hospitalisations a week later, getting a number, and plugging it in to calculate capacity. Not is it a matter of comparing those going into hospital with covid with last year, as more cases means fewer people going in without covid.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#254

Post by midasuni »

Spooky23 wrote: post #107
trentnix wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could start by not terminating perfectly capable doctors and nurses who have decided, for whatever their reasons may be, to refuse vaccination. I’m vaccinated (and boosted) but I cannot understand why it was okay for these people to be on the frontlines of the fight for over a year but suddenly they are no longer acceptable. And I find no convincing argument as to why actually recovering from infection counts fo…

It’s pretty simple. They are more likely to get sick and more likely to infect those whose care they are entrusted with. There’s a long history of this type of sanction. If you are a provider or nurse in a hospital who fails to get a measles, hepatitis, or rabies (after exposure) shot, you’ll be terminated for cause in many places. The reason why recovery doesn’t “count” the same as vaccination is that immunity doesn…

Confine them to covid wards

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#255

Post by XzetaU8 »

akomtu wrote: post #154
ryandrake wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

IIRC, this is a well known rhetoric technique: flood the opponent with irrelevant facts, so he doesnt have time to refute them all. But that's for in person debates, with finite time to respond.

Gish gallop?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#256

Post by _0w8t »

eesmith wrote: post #191
_0w8t wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give a source for that 93% efficiency of measles vaccine? Accuracy for 2 digits is very suspicious. Measles symptoms depend strongly on nutrition deficiencies with insufficient vitamin C being especially bad. If that is not the case, one can be asymptomatic and then we never know about infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/measles/index.html > The MMR vaccine is very safe and effective. Two doses of MMR vaccine are about 97% effective at preventing measles; one dose is about 93% effective. Prevention of Measles, Rubella, Congenital Rubella Syndrome, and Mumps, 2013 Summary Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) at https://www.jstor.org/stable/24832555 > One dose of me…

Thanks for the links. “About 93%” is much more sensible then 93%. As for vitamins there was an old study [1] :

Child mortality due to measles is 200 to 400 times greater in malnourished children in less developed countries than those in developed ones. In addition, measles brings about consumption of nutrients in marginally nourished children, so they will also do worse if not supplemented during infection.

[1] https://www.karger.com/Article/Abstract/413843

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#257

Post by pessimizer »

eesmith wrote: post #191
_0w8t wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give a source for that 93% efficiency of measles vaccine? Accuracy for 2 digits is very suspicious. Measles symptoms depend strongly on nutrition deficiencies with insufficient vitamin C being especially bad. If that is not the case, one can be asymptomatic and then we never know about infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/measles/index.html > The MMR vaccine is very safe and effective. Two doses of MMR vaccine are about 97% effective at preventing measles; one dose is about 93% effective. Prevention of Measles, Rubella, Congenital Rubella Syndrome, and Mumps, 2013 Summary Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) at https://www.jstor.org/stable/24832555 > One dose of me…

Seeing people very critical of vaccine studies of a successfully eradicated disease that has had a long time since to evaluate that success aside a really generous benefit of the doubt given to vague claims about vitamin supplements makes me sad.

We can be observant and suspicious about the healthcare industry while also admitting that there is science being done. They manufacture vitamin C supplements, too. They make money whether you buy the regulated stuff or the unregulated stuff.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#258

Post by TheGigaChad »

CryptoPunk wrote: post #236
HatchedLake721 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And who will staff them? https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/uk-lacks-nursing-staff-to-...

Here are a few options: * Spend tens of billions training new medical staff so you can save hundreds of billions / trillions on not having to lock people down * Stop admitting COVID patients at government subsidized hospitals when there is a shortage of hospital beds, with the exception of essential and frontline workers, so that hundreds of millions of people don't need to be locked down * Make those who are not vac…

No post body was provided.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#259

Post by TheGigaChad »

Havoc wrote: post #123
anonygler wrote: post #31

With a minuscule fatality rate at this point, all these measures seem like a massive waste of energy and resources. Masks, vaccines, dividers, hand sanitizer… none of it actually stops transmission. Spare everyone from this godawful ceremony.

>With a minuscule fatality rate at this point, Even at 0.1% over 7b population that's still a couple million body bags so measures even if only partially effective at preventing transmission are still worthwhile

No post body was provided.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#260

Post by midasuni »

lostlogin wrote: post #125
midasuni wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New Zealand has done a pretty good job over the last two years. Whether the costs outweigh the benefits is a separate question

Economically or in terms of mortality/morbidity, it’s not obvious that there was a better strategy for New Zealand . The article claims that covid is in all Antarctic bases, but I wasn’t aware that Scott base had any. I can’t find any reports of it either. Edit: Their report from August had it covid free. https://www.antarcticanz.govt.nz/media/news/antarctica-new-z...

That’s beside the point. It is possible to keep covid out. There are costs and benefits to that.

The ISS has remained covid free. Kiribati has too. Tonga had one person arrive with covid but it didn’t progress.

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