Live data from Hacker News

Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

brusselstimes.com

71–80 of 296 posts

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#71
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Third option: flawed hypothesis. Swabbing the nose or throat and performing subsequent RT-PCR analysis is not an infallable indicator of whether or not someone is free from the virus SARS-CoV-2 or infected with or likely to become infected with the respiratory disease COVID-19. Before 2020 such tests were typically only used as a part of a diagnosis by a medical professional upon consultation, typically also alongsid…

Nose swabs reveal whether you're shedding the particles and thus infectious. It doesn't matter if you're infected if you're not shedding the virus. They are also exceptionally reliable. The home test kit I used had a sub-1% false negative rate.

> Nose swabs reveal whether you're shedding the particles and thus infectious. It doesn't matter if you're infected if you're not shedding the virus.

No, they really don't. Swabbing for RNA picks up gene fragments that may or may not be from infectious virus -- it's why we see positive tests for months after infection in some people.

Swabbing for viral protein is debatably more likely to detect the thing of interest (the virus itself, in some semblance of functioning order), but these tests also have a high false-negative rate (around 10% for the better tests I've seen; I have never heard of a test with a sub-percent FN rate, as you claim). You can be shedding live virus and these tests won't pick it up, either because you're not shedding enough, or because the antibodies in the test don't bind to the protein in your sample for whatever reason.

Either way, you're measuring a proxy for what you really care about. A true test of infection involves taking a sample and incubating in cell culture. Nobody does this, except to validate the original tests and provide clear positive and negative samples. It's slow and orders of magnitude more expensive than even PCR testing. But this is the direct test for infectious virus. Everything else is an approximation.

(Let me be clear, though: I wholeheartedly support the use of antigen tests -- even ones with low sensitivity -- over the insanity we're doing now in the US. It's just bad to misrepresent what they're actually doing.)

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#72

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

Strep can lay ‘dormant’ in people for a while. Two months after the original outbreak and lockdown my daughter got strep. We hadn’t seen a soul. Dr said one of us was likely the carrier.

Step throat is caused by common skin bacteria that can spontaneously mutate and start attacking the throat.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#73
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is being 99.9% effective just isn't good enough. One person slips through and it's all over. It isn't realistically possible to keep covid out of areas.

What is good enough though? I always thought the whole prevention thing is because we want to “flatten the curve”, remember? Not to prevent every single infection, which is impossible.

In the US there are literally thousands of different public health agencies headed by health officers with strategies ranging from herd immunity by any means necessary to attempting COVID 0. Vague gripes about public health tag lines in such a fractured environment is unproductive.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#74
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Third option: flawed hypothesis. Swabbing the nose or throat and performing subsequent RT-PCR analysis is not an infallable indicator of whether or not someone is free from the virus SARS-CoV-2 or infected with or likely to become infected with the respiratory disease COVID-19. Before 2020 such tests were typically only used as a part of a diagnosis by a medical professional upon consultation, typically also alongsid…

Nose swabs reveal whether you're shedding the particles and thus infectious. It doesn't matter if you're infected if you're not shedding the virus. They are also exceptionally reliable. The home test kit I used had a sub-1% false negative rate.

> Nose swabs reveal whether you're shedding the particles and thus infectious.

On the "shedding" point, not necessarily. The virus can be present in but contained by the immune response from the mucosae of the upper respiratory tract in such a way that it is unable to spread into the lungs and cause COVID-19, yet not shed in large enough quantities to infect others. Given time, a healthy immune system will deal with the virus in the nose and throat, often without the host even noticing. Such a situation would set off a PCR or rapid test but not present a meaningful COVID-19 infection risk to the others. (In fact, one hypothesis for why positive cases rise soon after vaccination and booster campaigns start is because of the well understood phenomenon of reduced immune response for a short time after vaccination, giving such virus already present in the upper respiratory tract at time of vaccination the edge it needs to get into the lungs.)

And the cycle thresholds on PCR tests are often set nonsensically high making them sensitive to quantities of virus and viral debris far lower than the quantity required to meaningfully infect either the host or someone else via shedding. They can also trigger positive on not just virus but viral debris for months after recovery from COVID-19 infection. (A test can be too sensitive, especially when used as the only evidence to force someone and their contacts to isolate and in some cases not earn an income for weeks.)

> It doesn't matter if you're infected if you're not shedding the virus.

I agree, but I'm not sure if the Belgian authorities, who seem to use PCR positives as a COVID-19 diagnosis, and PCR negatives as a guarantee of safety from infection risk to others, would. The article does what most articles these days do, conflating presence of SARS-CoV-2 debris on a swab with COVID-19 disease diagnosis. It incorrectly claims 2/3rds of the 25 staff have COVID-19, when given that none seem to have symptoms of the disease it's likely a case of oversensitive tests. Let's not also forget that these tests are mostly (at least all the ones I've seen) called COVID-19 tests.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#75
post #54

Its almost like canceling all of humanity although it accomplishes extremely little but a CYA for the politicians is not the best way to handle this. Im sure when are fighting the 200th variant whose symptoms are a day of fatigue we will almost be ready to end the restrictions. And just for the record, im 2x vaccinated, not an antivaxxer or denier or something.

It's 100% about hospital capacity and mass death. When hospitals around the country are no longer turning away cancer patients needing treatments and have plenty of ICUs for heart attacks and such, when they no longer have to rent fleets of refrigerator trucks every outbreak to store the bodies, the restrictions will end. It has always been about that and nothing more.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#76
post #54

Its almost like canceling all of humanity although it accomplishes extremely little but a CYA for the politicians is not the best way to handle this. Im sure when are fighting the 200th variant whose symptoms are a day of fatigue we will almost be ready to end the restrictions. And just for the record, im 2x vaccinated, not an antivaxxer or denier or something.

What are your thoughts on the hospitalization of infected people? Hospitals are at capacity or overflowing.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#77
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you’re elderly or have health issues, Covid fatality rate was already very, very low. Therapeutics make that even better.

That's complete nonsense. If covid wasn't as deadly as we have been reliably informed, then they would not be forcing us to go through these otherwise-draconian and insane mandates or lockdowns.

I just spent 10 minutes Googling for a good source and surprisingly couldn’t find one. For under 65 say, the fatality rate is well under 1%. This was before vaccines and Omnicron is estimated as 70% lower. We must be well under the IFR of flu already.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#79
post #54

Its almost like canceling all of humanity although it accomplishes extremely little but a CYA for the politicians is not the best way to handle this. Im sure when are fighting the 200th variant whose symptoms are a day of fatigue we will almost be ready to end the restrictions. And just for the record, im 2x vaccinated, not an antivaxxer or denier or something.

What are your thoughts on the hospitalization of infected people? Hospitals are at capacity or overflowing.

not in England they aren't

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#80
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's complete nonsense. If covid wasn't as deadly as we have been reliably informed, then they would not be forcing us to go through these otherwise-draconian and insane mandates or lockdowns.

I just spent 10 minutes Googling for a good source and surprisingly couldn’t find one. For under 65 say, the fatality rate is well under 1%. This was before vaccines and Omnicron is estimated as 70% lower. We must be well under the IFR of flu already.

I think the person you're replying to was being sarcastic
Post reply on HN