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Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

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Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#91

Post by [deleted] »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #89
dv_dt wrote: post #2

But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much does not play out like the flu. I also think it is irresponsible for this article to not mention what ages they’re actually talking about. At some point there is a crossover of the risk and it may be in the younger to mid teens.

Since children can't provide their own informed consent, its very morally dubious to give them medical treatments for something that is unlikely to make them sick, and seems on balance for the benefit of the parents. This is quite different from the other vaccines they currently take. In the event that the covid vaccine turn out to have long term health effects, a child has a long life to live with those side effects…

[deleted]

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#92

Post by guilhas »

miriam_catira wrote: post #29

Does this directly contradict this claim? (Not to mention how old this article is... ) US children hospitalized with COVID in near-record numbers https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-pande... (that is an ugly ugly link, apologies even though there's not a lot I can do there)

Probably no

There are a lot of respiratory virus and children were already hospitalized at record numbers before omicron

My healthy child has already been on antibiotics 3 separate weeks since September. One chest infection. Keeps coughing. Already had a lot of negative pcr tests because the nursery demands. Every time I go to the GP there are 2 or 3 other children waiting

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#93

Post by MatteoFrigo »

petmon wrote: post #55
cinntaile wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are these numbers for the US?

Yes. You can do a quick and dirty estimate working backwards from the article's own figure of 2.6 million COVID hospitalizations in the US. If you very generously assume 1/3 of Americans have been infected, you get a hospitalization rate of 2.3%. If you assume the vaccines prevent hospitalizations, then the risk to the unvaccinated must be higher.

I wouldn't call 1/3 "generous". https://covidestim.org/ has some estimates of the fraction of people ever infected by US state. I can't seem to find an US aggregate figure, but by clicking on a few random states they all seem to be at least 50%. California (the most populous state) is around 60% even before omicron.

Your estimate is likely off by a factor of two.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#94

Post by dv_dt »

coryrc wrote: post #81
dv_dt wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is less threatening for the single short outlook of being hospitalized. We still do not know the long term effects of Covid across a large population and it seems our governments have given up in favor of continued service in the economy.

What are you proposing otherwise? This: https://news.yahoo.com/remote-learning-led-to-catastrophic-l... Catastrophic learning loss. Any parents who can't afford nannies and won't die without working have had one leave the workforce. The ones who would die have just abandoned their kids. What I would propose is movement away from nuclear family to more communal living and extended family, but I just see oblivious peop…

It seems the the conclusion that remote learning causes learning loss is very premature and not differentable from a lot of other factors that occurred simultaneously. Massive job losses, or incredible stresses on parents and family units, learning curve on remot resources, not a full year with massive educational environment changes, alternate standard testing regeimes, etc.

That conclusion does however support a push for a return to work economic policy.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#95

Post by usaphp »

dv_dt wrote: post #2

But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much does not play out like the flu. I also think it is irresponsible for this article to not mention what ages they’re actually talking about. At some point there is a crossover of the risk and it may be in the younger to mid teens.

But parents can be are vaccinated if they want to. This hopefully will eliminate a need for a mandate on children vaccination.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#96

Post by squiffsquiff »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #89
dv_dt wrote: post #2

But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much does not play out like the flu. I also think it is irresponsible for this article to not mention what ages they’re actually talking about. At some point there is a crossover of the risk and it may be in the younger to mid teens.

Since children can't provide their own informed consent, its very morally dubious to give them medical treatments for something that is unlikely to make them sick, and seems on balance for the benefit of the parents. This is quite different from the other vaccines they currently take. In the event that the covid vaccine turn out to have long term health effects, a child has a long life to live with those side effects…

There's a significant precedent in this area: Rubella. Vaccinations are typically provided at 3-4 months of age (e.g. in UK). Rubella is typically a relatively mild disease with the exception of pregnancy when it can have severe effects on the foetus. The principal beneficiaries are those becoming pregnant many years later and the unvaccinated in the general population. This isn't contentious. Why is a similar position regarding COVID vaccination?

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#97

Post by satya71 »

kerabatsos wrote: post #18
dv_dt wrote: post #2

But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much does not play out like the flu. I also think it is irresponsible for this article to not mention what ages they’re actually talking about. At some point there is a crossover of the risk and it may be in the younger to mid teens.

This is hardly ever mentioned. The fact that children easily spread it back to parents, etc. was (and still is) conveniently left out of the discussion - even prior to access to vaccinations it was simply ignored. It’s one of the reasons we kept our children home from school, the first year of the pandemic. There were even “experts” arguing that children just didn’t spread the virus at all - which turned out to be lu…

Indeed, children are more vulnerable indirectly because of risk to their carers than the direct risk of the child’s own health.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#98

Post by dv_dt »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #89
dv_dt wrote: post #2

But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much does not play out like the flu. I also think it is irresponsible for this article to not mention what ages they’re actually talking about. At some point there is a crossover of the risk and it may be in the younger to mid teens.

Since children can't provide their own informed consent, its very morally dubious to give them medical treatments for something that is unlikely to make them sick, and seems on balance for the benefit of the parents. This is quite different from the other vaccines they currently take. In the event that the covid vaccine turn out to have long term health effects, a child has a long life to live with those side effects…

Harm is not limited to direct medical causes. Parents dying of Covid will cause significant mental and financial harm

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#99

Post by HWR_14 »

CoastalCoder wrote: post #87
HWR_14 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what point do you stop assuming people are arguing in good faith? Because it seems unbelievable that everyone is.

I don't have a great answer. But I'm guessing that typically we'll have better discussions if we set a high bar for assuming bad intent.

While I agree it's a good default to assume good faith, there has to be a point where we assume a specific person is arguing in bad faith. I'm not advocating assuming everyone who disagrees with me is disingenuous, but merely that it seems some people are.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#100

Post by kcplate »

dv_dt wrote: post #9
stakkur wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much not does not play out like the flu." I don't think this is true, and I'd be interested to see data that backs up that claim. On that topic, here's a thoughtful article that dives into claims like that: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/the-kids-were-safe-f... My wife has been a public school teacher for 21 years,…

There have been studies that confirmed it with the older Covid strains which were less transferable than even delta, let alone Omicron. With increased transfer rates it becomes an even more viable vector. The article you quote says this “ Once you get to a certain point of community infection rates, it does look like being in-person … is associated with COVID spread in the community,” said Katharine Strunk, an author…

> There have been studies that confirmed it with the older Covid strains which were less transferable than even delta, let alone Omicron. With increased transfer rates it becomes an even more viable vector

Please cite some. No offense but after nearly 2 years of constant rumor about this virus, the treatments, the vaccines, etc… when I see: “there are studies that show (fill in the blank)” with no studies cited—-I assume hearsay.

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