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Krugman on BitCoin

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

271–280 of 306 posts

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The total number of bitcoins in circulation is capped, even though the total quantity of wealth in the world continues to increase. If bitcoins were the only currency used, then yes, this would cause hoarding problems. Does this mean bitcoins are flawed? No. It just means that there is a cap on how much wealth can be purchased with bitcoins.

It is 21.00000000 million-- or 2.1 quadrillion of the smallest-possible-unit.

So every person on earth only gets 300,000 of the smallest possible unit?

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#272
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You basically interpreted this backwards. When Krugman says that the bitcoin economy has experienced deflation, he means that a bitcoin is worth more now than it was in the past. The graph on bitcoinmarket certainly shows this. If I wanted to buy a motorcycle in bitcoins in 2010 I would have needed several thousand. Now I only need a few hundred. Which means that I would have been stupid to spend my bitcoins last yea…

>And most economic theory says that the more people spend money the healthier the economy becomes Doesn't that seem like a bizarre theory since the economy is in shambles and debt-financed spending seems to be getting higher and higher (consumer/credit card debt, etc.) I thought people were supposed to be encouraged to save, pensions, 401k and Roth IRAs, etc. Is overall economic health inversely related to individual…

Upvoted since genuine comments and questions should not be downvoted. The concept is known as the paradox of thrift:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/the-paradox-of-t...

The counterintuitive thing is that you would think that all savings flow back into the economy as investment so demand will always equals supply. This is an axiomatic assumption of classical economics (the idea is known as Say's Law) and is what people generally believed before Keynes basically demolished it.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the psychological effects of needing to constantly lower prices – this happens all the time in the tech industry, and everyone in that industry is doing just fine psychologically. Rather, it has to do with the fact that constantly down-shifting prices cause people not to buy nearly as often as they would if prices were stable or slightly inflationary. As a result of that, the economy slows down (som…

The other big problem is that debt loads don't drop along with prices - which effectively makes them rise. Falling prices (which lead to falling wages) + stable debt loads make it far harder for debtors to pay off their debts, which puts even further drag on the economy.

Yes, instead of taking on debt people would be incentivized to save money before spending it.

With inflation you get the reverse effect: people are incentivized to take on debt to spend.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#274
post #33

"What we want from a monetary system isn’t to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that’s not at all what is happening in Bitcoin." Spot friggin' on, Mr. Krugman. Bitcoin's supply limiting design has added a psychological dimension that encourages collecting. Perhaps when Bitcoin reaches supply maturity the value will stabilize but for now its…

Value will stabilize against what? Not USD ever.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is 21.00000000 million-- or 2.1 quadrillion of the smallest-possible-unit.

So every person on earth only gets 300,000 of the smallest possible unit?

With the current software yes. It could always be expanded if need though.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#276
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money is a wealth transfer medium. If you're familiar with physics, think of exchange particles associated with forces. In biology, it's similar to blood. I'm not sure a transportation analog works but it might (I need to think about that). Money works when it is exchanged for goods and services. When money stops moving, the economy "stops". There isn't any exchange going on (or there's far less than before). Economi…

Really informative, thanks!

You're welcome. I'm not going to claim great insight (yet), I'm still stumbling through this stuff myself (and have been for 25 years).

Other than Mancur Olsen, some of the more interesting reading I've found includes George Akerlof ("The Market for Lemons"), Garrett Hardin ("Lifeboat Ethics", "Tragedy of the Commons", and several books of essays), Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle (a cunningly disguised treatise on the emergence of stock corporations, banking, and modern finance and capital), Niall Fergusson's The Ascent of Money (a less cunningly disguised version of same), and The Ordinary Business of Life which is dry as dust but still a wonderful exposition of 3000 years of economic thought.

A book I've just heard of but haven't read is David Graeber's Debt: The First 5,000 Years. He's a radical anthropologist, but has some really keen insights and views on the formation of credit and money (guess which came first).

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#277
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And most economic theory says that the more people spend money the healthier the economy becomes Doesn't that seem like a bizarre theory since the economy is in shambles and debt-financed spending seems to be getting higher and higher (consumer/credit card debt, etc.) I thought people were supposed to be encouraged to save, pensions, 401k and Roth IRAs, etc. Is overall economic health inversely related to individual…

Upvoted since genuine comments and questions should not be downvoted. The concept is known as the paradox of thrift: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/the-paradox-of-t... The counterintuitive thing is that you would think that all savings flow back into the economy as investment so demand will always equals supply. This is an axiomatic assumption of classical economics (the idea is known as Say's Law) and i…

Demolished it how? All I have seen is that Keynes promotes printing of money and lots of government spending, and the people in power love this! Please enlighten us.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#279

"So how’s it going? The dollar value of that gold has fluctuated sharply, but overall it has soared. So buying into gold has, at least so far, been a good investment. But does that make the experiment a success? Um, no. What we want from a monetary system isn’t to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that’s not at all what is happening in gold…

Exactly! You can substitute Bitcoins in that text for gold, Swiss Franc or even Brazilian Real. What a ridiculous pseudo-criticism by Krugman.

Perhaps Econ 101 is escaping me, but the idea of deflation being dangerous is massively overstated. First of all falling prices mean a higher standard of living for everyone in the economy. Second, nobody is going to indefinitely put off purchases due to a decreasing price level. Time is a factor in demand, and you require food today, fuel tomorrow and a new laptop before 2020 would be handy. Even if the price of the 2020 Macbook Pro/Air equivalent has fallen to 100 USD.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#280
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fiat currencies discourage saving by gradually stealing the value of the saved money via inflation. Theft isn't essential to trade: people will still innovate and exchange without being coerced into doing so by the systematic devaluation of their previous economic contributions.

I don't think there is any reason to encourage saving money. Living within your means, yes, investing, yes, but saving under your pillow, especially if you had a non-inflating currency, isn't good for the economy. Even if it should be encouraged, it doesn't matter the logic of it, people won't accept making less and less money over time. Non-fiat currency + population increase makes that inevitable.

> saving under your pillow, especially if you had a non-inflating currency, isn't good for the economy.

It actually is. It you earn $100, by producing $100 worth of goods for the economy, and you don't spend it, you're producing more than you consume. This increases the supply of all goods on the market, decreasing the price, effectively making the entire world richer by that amount. Other people can use that extra money partly to increase their consumption and partly for investment purposes. When you take your $100 out of your pillow and spend it, you're then having the opposite effect. So in the end, you're allowing people to consume more at an earlier time (when you put the money in) and less at a later time (when you're taking it out). This is a very valuable service, as shown by the fact that people are willing to take out loans where they pay money (interest) for the ability to temporally distort their consumption patterns in this way. Some people can even use the temporary possession of additional goods as capital to generate permanent wealth.

A constant pattern of people saving under their pillow will simply reduce prices by a certain percentage and hold it there. If deflation is small, then this secondary price reduction will be lower than the primary reduction and the economy will remain stable. The problem only arises when deflation becomes too high - then, the secondary reduction becomes greater than the primary reduction, and causes a still greater tertiary reduction, leading to a deflationary spiral (ie. bubble), which screws up the economy until it inevitably pops, but if deflation is within reasonable margins it should not be an issue.

> Even if it should be encouraged, it doesn't matter the logic of it, people won't accept making less and less money over time.

How do we know this? One could imagine a deflationary society where people ask how people could possibly stand their money buying less and less over time.

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