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Krugman on BitCoin

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

181–190 of 306 posts

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't ecourage you, it forces you. Yet currency is misleadingly sold to society as a legitimate store of value.

Please cite one credible source of mainstream financial planning advice that suggests parking savings in US Dollars.

Anyone offering you salary in US dollars instead of a share of the product is implying that the dollar is a better store of the value you provided them with than the actual thing you produced.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the psychological effects of needing to constantly lower prices – this happens all the time in the tech industry, and everyone in that industry is doing just fine psychologically. Rather, it has to do with the fact that constantly down-shifting prices cause people not to buy nearly as often as they would if prices were stable or slightly inflationary. As a result of that, the economy slows down (som…

Rationally, people should wait as long as possible to buy tech because they'll get more later. Instead, they buy it at a furious rate. Why is that?

stevenwagner shows by example why this isn't so, but to spell it out: If you were buying a CPU as an investment like a share of a mutual fund, to buy, hold, and sell, you'd want to wait as long as possible. In fact, you'd never buy one; we pretty much always expect the price of a given CPU to go down in the future.

But if you're going to use it to generate value, you should buy it as soon as your expectation for the marginal value it will generate is greater than the price of the CPU.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#183
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that people treating the Swiss Franc as a commodity is harming the Swiss economy. See http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/08/19/139791374/the-frid... and http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/09/06/140211340/swiss-to...

Yes, that's why I chose that example. The thing is, currencies are and have always been a commodity with many traders. Bitcoin being treated as a commodity does not prevent it from being a currency.

The reason I cited those examples is that once currencies cross a certain commodity-threshold, they become much less useful as currencies.

cube13's characterization is a simplification, but I think it still captures their intended uses. Bitcoin's deflation, and the Swiss franc's high value compared to other currencies, harm their ability to act as they were intended to. Right now, I agree with Duffy's original point, which is that bitcoin is more of a commodity than a currency.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the psychological effects of needing to constantly lower prices – this happens all the time in the tech industry, and everyone in that industry is doing just fine psychologically. Rather, it has to do with the fact that constantly down-shifting prices cause people not to buy nearly as often as they would if prices were stable or slightly inflationary. As a result of that, the economy slows down (som…

The other big problem is that debt loads don't drop along with prices - which effectively makes them rise. Falling prices (which lead to falling wages) + stable debt loads make it far harder for debtors to pay off their debts, which puts even further drag on the economy.

I would not short gold or Apple either, the risk would be huge! So are you agreeing that bitcoins will become worth more then? So I shouldnt take a bitcoin loan out, I should take a dollar loan out and buy bitcoins with it. Or you are saying bitcoins are bad so they will go down in value ... and I should... whaaat?

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_KuUh8iKx_c/TX_URc8gLpI/AAAAAAAAA6... Please cite a source on this "one rule of money" you're thinking of?

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_four_properties_of_mo... says one of the properties of money is that it has to be a 'store of value'.

Logic that suggests that roads aren't a medium for transportation because they have friction.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the psychological effects of needing to constantly lower prices – this happens all the time in the tech industry, and everyone in that industry is doing just fine psychologically. Rather, it has to do with the fact that constantly down-shifting prices cause people not to buy nearly as often as they would if prices were stable or slightly inflationary. As a result of that, the economy slows down (som…

The total number of bitcoins in circulation is capped, even though the total quantity of wealth in the world continues to increase. If bitcoins were the only currency used, then yes, this would cause hoarding problems. Does this mean bitcoins are flawed? No. It just means that there is a cap on how much wealth can be purchased with bitcoins.

In other words, prices of goods (in bitcoins) will (eventually) stop deflating, even though there is a fixed quantity of bitcoins, because other cryptocurrencies will be introduced.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the psychological effects of needing to constantly lower prices – this happens all the time in the tech industry, and everyone in that industry is doing just fine psychologically. Rather, it has to do with the fact that constantly down-shifting prices cause people not to buy nearly as often as they would if prices were stable or slightly inflationary. As a result of that, the economy slows down (som…

The total number of bitcoins in circulation is capped, even though the total quantity of wealth in the world continues to increase. If bitcoins were the only currency used, then yes, this would cause hoarding problems. Does this mean bitcoins are flawed? No. It just means that there is a cap on how much wealth can be purchased with bitcoins.

It is 21.00000000 million-- or 2.1 quadrillion of the smallest-possible-unit.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#188
post #161
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps when Bitcoin reaches supply maturity the value will stabilize I absolutely hate Krugman, but this is Econ 101 and even he gets it right. Bitcoin was a flawed experiment from the start because it has an absolute supply limit. Reaching that limit won't help. It'll make things worse. The money supply needs to expand for healthy economic activity and growth. If it doesn't, weird shit starts to happen. Here's an…

> In a normal economy, the population is constantly expanding. That may be, but the western world is then abnormal. US population is projected to peak at 2030, and a number of countries already have negative population growth. Exponential growth assumptions should not be made for long periods ahead. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population...

Our economies, culture, the whole of our civilization is based on the assumption of population growth. Because, quite simply, that's how it's always been.

We have never before experienced a reduction in the human population for any extended period of time.

I wouldn't count the US out yet, it can easily augment its population with immigration. So can all the other developed countries.

Anyway, regardless, making a currency with a fixed supply doesn't work under any scenario. With a constant or increasing population, you want to increase the money supply. With a decreasing population, you want to decrease it.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't ecourage you, it forces you. Yet currency is misleadingly sold to society as a legitimate store of value.

Please cite one credible source of mainstream financial planning advice that suggests parking savings in US Dollars.

Whats financial planning?

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The title is a reference to the book "Golden Fetters" by Barry Eichengreen which discusses the role the gold standard played in transmitting deflation during the Great Depression. Krugman isn't citing statistics because Eichengreen does the heavy lifting here. He's just reminding people that libertarians who attack the Fed because they want a new gold standard are basically crazy. I agree with his assessment (bitcoin…

Wait, the Fed is formed to finance WW1, goes on a massive inflationary binge through the 20s and causes the Great Depression, and the takeaway is that the gold is the problem? Genius.

Exactly. You pass reading comprehension.

For bonus points, read the actual book. Informed discussions are always more interesting.

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