Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid • Hacker News Board

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#241

Post by amanaplanacanal » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 1:45 AM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #131

runjake wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re going to have to lay down the logic behind this one for me. I am not getting it.

The gist OP is getting at, though not put so eloquently, is that covid is endemic and there will continue to be deaths, even in a world with 100% vaccinated and boosted people. So covid being "over" is really a state of mind/choice of when to accept that it's endemic and drop the hysterics/restrictions. Omicron should be cheered as an effectively natural vaccine that looks to quickly end the worst of covid, yet media…

I dunno, people working in the health care system are getting burned out and quitting in droves. I'd kind of like there to be doctors and nurses there to take care of me if I need to go to the hospital for whatever reason. Your state of mind seems irrelevant to this.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#242

Post by amanaplanacanal » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 1:49 AM UTC

jlokier wrote: post #237

adam_arthur wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The restrictions largely don't have any effect anyway, if you compare different US state policies with health outcomes. Especially something like a travel/flight ban, as if that can stop an exponentially spreading virus.

A travel/flight ban changes the exponent, which changes the shape and peak of the healthcare curve, buys time for gathering data, and in Omicron's case, more time to roll out an mRNA booster dose which significantly improves protection against severe symptoms compared with the 2-dose schedule. It definitely has an effect, even if the virus is not "stopped".

If it is already widespread domestically, a travel ban isn't going to do anything.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#243

Post by fasdf23467 » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 2:09 AM UTC

Fantastic news. Actual science.

Thanks to these folk and gals, so much.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#244

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 2:12 AM UTC

johnchristopher wrote: post #152

mikeyouse wrote: post #2

Finally some glimmers of hope in moving past Covid.. if Omicron continues on its current track of highly infectious but less serious —- and infection confers reactive immunity to a variety of strains, we could be closer to the endemic but manageable end game. Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. What a stroke of luck that we are here vs a more infectious strain of Delta or some other nig…

> Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. If it was a common cold or a flu ? Maybe. > “Although COVID-19 has been described as a respiratory syndrome, evidence supports the involvement of multiple organ systems, with fibrosis, and inflammation in the lung, heart, kidneys, central nervous system (CNS), liver, adrenal glands, bone marrow, lymph nodes, and gastrointestinal tract. SARS-CoV-2 in…

[deleted]

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#245

Post by adam_arthur » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 2:24 AM UTC

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #241

adam_arthur wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gist OP is getting at, though not put so eloquently, is that covid is endemic and there will continue to be deaths, even in a world with 100% vaccinated and boosted people. So covid being "over" is really a state of mind/choice of when to accept that it's endemic and drop the hysterics/restrictions. Omicron should be cheered as an effectively natural vaccine that looks to quickly end the worst of covid, yet media…

I dunno, people working in the health care system are getting burned out and quitting in droves. I'd kind of like there to be doctors and nurses there to take care of me if I need to go to the hospital for whatever reason. Your state of mind seems irrelevant to this.

Well, it seems hospital systems are more than happy to fire their staff if they aren't vaccinated, so there must not be much of a shortage.

And the point is Omicron is largely benign, which is reflected in data at this point.

There's no need for 95%+ of people who catch it to go to the hospital. Look at the South African data... Hospitalizations are order of magnitude below cases with omicron, vs Delta.

But single variable policy proponents, like you appear to be, don't care about the facts or the science, just number of cases.

Personally I'd rather advocate for policy that looks at the actual data in regards to health outcomes, as well as other variables that take into account second order effects of any policy. That's called following the science.

Covid extremists are the religious ones at this point. I'm glad society is finally rejecting their failed views and authoritarian virtue signaling. Of which has made 0 difference state by state in the US, by and large. Check FL or TX vs CA or NY (e.g. the data, the science).

We're living in a bizarro world where these people think they have the scientific high ground, but are actually following mass group think/bubble mentality and ignoring anything beyond case counts.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#246

Post by sjg007 » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 3:53 AM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #196

mikeyouse wrote: post #2

Finally some glimmers of hope in moving past Covid.. if Omicron continues on its current track of highly infectious but less serious —- and infection confers reactive immunity to a variety of strains, we could be closer to the endemic but manageable end game. Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. What a stroke of luck that we are here vs a more infectious strain of Delta or some other nig…

Omicron's lower hospitalization rate is likely just due to vaccination and recovery from infection with Delta. Delta was transmissible enough to complete the vaccination program. Given that Omicron has higher viral loads, shorter serial interval and shorter incubation period than Delta, it is much more likely that Omicron is more intrinsically virulent as well and would be worse if you dropped it on a totally naive p…

A bunch of kids are ending up in the hospitals at a higher rate than before so you may be right.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#247

Post by bhk » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 3:54 AM UTC

phonypc wrote: post #227

bhk wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Garbage"? > In an FDA analysis of the Optum healthcare claims database, the estimated excess risk of myocarditis/pericarditis approached 200 cases per million fully vaccinated males 16-17 years of age and 180 cases per million fully vaccinated males 12-15 years of age. [1] This rate is close to the findings of the Høeg study (even higher, actually). [2] On the one side we have the FDA and multiple scholarly publicat…

Different data sets. The sentence preceding your quote from the FDA estimates rates of 71.5 and 42.6 per million using VAERS, vs. the garbage paper's 164 and 92 per million. i.e. less than half the incidence. Regarding that other data set, see page 24 of this report: https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download Importantly, in relies on unconfirmed cases of myo/pericarditis, and concludes vaccine benefits outweigh risks…

The Hoeg findings are off by 2X from the VAERS-based numbers cited by the FDA, but Hoeg examines "probable" vs. "medical chart-confirmed" cases. A factor of 2 is small in the scheme of things considering (a) the apple-to-oranges nature of the comparison, (b) the confidence intervals, and (c) the unacknowledged uncertainties that stem from our lack of understanding of reporting rates.

This new blog article you cite points out problems with 7 of the 257 cases included by the Hoeg study -- intermixed with a healthy dose of stay-in-your-lane-bro rhetoric. It also makes unfounded criticisms, such as "The claim from the study authors is that they replicate the [ACIP analysis] and found a much higher incidence than previously reported." In fact, the paper is clear that they follow a different method, and it claims "using these broader [emphasis mine] search and inclusion criteria, we found post-vaccination rates ... that exceed the rates previously reported."

This looks like someone is nit-picking when, in the big picture, considering the general concurrence with results from other studies, including other data sets, the findings are not misleading.

One recent publication: 370 / 1,000,000 rate of acute myocarditis/pericarditis following 2nd dose of Comirnaty in male adolescents between June and September of 2021. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-abstract/doi/10...

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#248

Post by nikolay » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 4:22 AM UTC

mikeyouse wrote: post #2

Finally some glimmers of hope in moving past Covid.. if Omicron continues on its current track of highly infectious but less serious —- and infection confers reactive immunity to a variety of strains, we could be closer to the endemic but manageable end game. Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. What a stroke of luck that we are here vs a more infectious strain of Delta or some other nig…

It will be Omicron for a short period of time. Then it would split into different variants. So, don't keep your hopes up!

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#249

Post by amanaplanacanal » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 4:24 AM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #245

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, people working in the health care system are getting burned out and quitting in droves. I'd kind of like there to be doctors and nurses there to take care of me if I need to go to the hospital for whatever reason. Your state of mind seems irrelevant to this.

Well, it seems hospital systems are more than happy to fire their staff if they aren't vaccinated, so there must not be much of a shortage. And the point is Omicron is largely benign, which is reflected in data at this point. There's no need for 95%+ of people who catch it to go to the hospital. Look at the South African data... Hospitalizations are order of magnitude below cases with omicron, vs Delta. But single va…

I don’t know where you are, or what policies they are following. Where I live, the stated policy is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, which seems reasonable. I really can’t comment on the rest of your post.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#250

Post by throwaway55421 » Sat, Dec 25, 2021, 4:43 AM UTC

2muchcoffeeman wrote: post #114

Amezarak wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question ever since it became clear that this coronavirus was endemic has been what a "manageable end game" is: that is, what level of risk and mortality are we prepared to accept, given that deaths from Covid will never be zero. This is, in my opinion, the primary underlying disagreement. Some people think that no amount of deaths from Covid is acceptable. Some people believe that even the peak pandemic mortalit…

I agree that in most countries this is the underlying disagreement. I wonder if we thought this through at a global community though. Imagine if China didn’t or couldn’t pursue a zero covid policy. What happens when the world’s manufacturer closes? We’ve already seen huge supply chain issues.

It's not the case that they would need to close.

Across the Western world the vast majority of the economic and social issues have been caused by legalities rather than pandemic reality.

For example, for better or worse, if the 10 day isolation and testing regime did not exist in the UK then staff shortages would not either. People aren't actually getting ill en masse - we've just recalibrated what ill means.