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Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

nature.com

191–200 of 285 posts

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#191
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, many governments reinstating restrictions, for one. These work to slow the spread, which given the innocuous nature of Omicron, seem more damaging than helpful. Not that any government ever considered second order effects of these policies to begin with...

Many of these restrictions were put in place because the effects of Omicron were uncertain when they were decided. If these early results bear out, I'm sure we'll start seeing the easing of some restrictions again very quickly.

The restrictions largely don't have any effect anyway, if you compare different US state policies with health outcomes.

Especially something like a travel/flight ban, as if that can stop an exponentially spreading virus.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The primary concern form day one has been the capacity of our healthcare systems. "Peak pandemic mortality" includes scores of people dying from unrelated illness due to lack of care. Does anyone truly think its acceptable to let people die in ambulances outside of hospitals because a highly contagious disease filled all the hospital beds and medical staff is too fatigued to work? Maybe people with a political axe to…

> Does anyone truly think its acceptable to let people die in ambulances outside of hospitals because a highly contagious disease filled all the hospital beds and medical staff is too fatigued to work? Maybe people with a political axe to grind pretend to think that. Given widespread availability of vaccines, I think it is acceptable to turn away any non vaccinated people without medical exemptions to preserve hospit…

> Given widespread availability of vaccines, I think it is acceptable to turn away any non vaccinated people without medical exemptions to preserve hospital capacity.

Person A is "fully vaccinated", last dose five months ago, hasn't taken a Covid test since.

Person B is unvaccinated, but had a PCR test yesterday and is negative for Covid19.

Let's say you're clinically vulnerable, which of A or B would you rather sit next to during a meal?

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#193

We're going to look back on our treatment of children these past 2 years as one of the greatest blunders in the history of public health policy.

I couldn't agree more. Children trying to eat lunch outside in the cold in NYC. Children in California barred from classrooms for a year+, and soon children forced to receive one or more medicines they simply do not need.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#194
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're no longer talking about the subject matter, but there is absolutely value in knowing whether an opinion is informed by expertise or not. I did not "appeal to expertise", I merely signalled that I had expertise in the field. This has value. I suspect that a small minority of Hacker News participants are biochemists/biologists/life scientists, so the default assumption when you read comments on these topics is th…

> “…it is usually a very good idea to defer to expertise.” this is exactly what i’m pointedly disagreeing with. expertise gives you no such esteem to have others defer to you by default. what it does confer is an expectation of novel (to the non-expert) information and perhaps reasoning, but explicitly not deference. we are all often wrong, especially in our areas of expertise because of the disproportionate amount o…

I'm fine with you disagreeing with it, everybody has a right to their opinion.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#195

We're going to look back on our treatment of children these past 2 years as one of the greatest blunders in the history of public health policy.

You may want to read this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/24/omicron-chi...

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#196

Finally some glimmers of hope in moving past Covid.. if Omicron continues on its current track of highly infectious but less serious —- and infection confers reactive immunity to a variety of strains, we could be closer to the endemic but manageable end game. Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. What a stroke of luck that we are here vs a more infectious strain of Delta or some other nig…

Omicron's lower hospitalization rate is likely just due to vaccination and recovery from infection with Delta. Delta was transmissible enough to complete the vaccination program.

Given that Omicron has higher viral loads, shorter serial interval and shorter incubation period than Delta, it is much more likely that Omicron is more intrinsically virulent as well and would be worse if you dropped it on a totally naive population in the summer of 2019. The current population, however, is longer immunologically naive, and I think that researchers are underestimating the existing seroprevalence.

At the same time if there's still pockets of entirely unexposed/unvaccinated people out there in rural areas or something, Omicron will likely find them since it seems to largely ignore unboosted Nabs to prior infection or vaccination. Kids in colleges will be taking Omicron home for Christmas to rural families right about now and a few weeks from now we should find out how many seronegative people are left.

If it Omicron fizzles though it is going to just be that Delta didn't leave anyone immune naive in its wake.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#197
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Among all infectious diseases children are facing Covid is one of the most severe. The worst side effect of the vaccine (myocarditis in young males) has been eliminated with better dosing protocols.

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/weve-now-killed-close-to-...

There was an excellent refutation of using Adverse Events Reports for anything but safety signalling.

The author of the linked substack could have uploaded the death reports himself. And he didn't even think about comparing his numbers to expected numbers.

So, no: children don't die from the vaccine.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. If it was a common cold or a flu ? Maybe. > “Although COVID-19 has been described as a respiratory syndrome, evidence supports the involvement of multiple organ systems, with fibrosis, and inflammation in the lung, heart, kidneys, central nervous system (CNS), liver, adrenal glands, bone marrow, lymph nodes, and gastrointestinal tract. SARS-CoV-2 in…

I'm not sure why we wouldn't be able to go back to normal, and taking a stance that we never will strikes me as somewhat defeatist. I'm more of an optimist. Having a small percentage of the population that's at greater risk of serious implications from infection (respiratory or otherwise) is something we've learned to live with before (see: the flu) without masks, mandates, or dramatically rearranging the way we live…

> I'm not sure why we wouldn't be able to go back to normal,

There are no path back to normal unless the virus disappears. We have vaccines that work for a limited time, we'll soon have pills@home. It will still not be `back to normal`.

> and taking a stance that we never will strikes me as somewhat defeatist.

We'll also never have FTL spaceships or teleportation star trek style.

> I'm more of an optimist. Having a small percentage of the population that's at greater risk of serious implications from infection (respiratory or otherwise) is something we've learned to live with before (see: the flu) without masks, mandates, or dramatically rearranging the way we live.

Covid is not the flu. Hoping it'll magically turn into a flu or that we can manage it like a flu is ignoring the reality currently unfolding.

40 years later and we still need condoms. We are not back to sex as it was in the 70's. Generations of teenagers have had their first time with a condom. This is what is normal now.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#199
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think taking a shot every six month is totally worth it if that will let your grandma live two years longer.

It would seem fairly important to actually ask the grandmas what they think about this, rather than decide on their behalf. The four elderly members of our immediate family are all fairly adamant that the young have suffered enough, and "hell, yes" they want to see their grandkids, and no, they aren't asking about vaccinations and negative tests. I'm minded to respect their opinions.

Yes, and we don't ask them either if they'd feel better if we took them, we just do it for them, it's understood.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#200

Finally some glimmers of hope in moving past Covid.. if Omicron continues on its current track of highly infectious but less serious —- and infection confers reactive immunity to a variety of strains, we could be closer to the endemic but manageable end game. Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. What a stroke of luck that we are here vs a more infectious strain of Delta or some other nig…

> Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. If it was a common cold or a flu ? Maybe. > “Although COVID-19 has been described as a respiratory syndrome, evidence supports the involvement of multiple organ systems, with fibrosis, and inflammation in the lung, heart, kidneys, central nervous system (CNS), liver, adrenal glands, bone marrow, lymph nodes, and gastrointestinal tract. SARS-CoV-2 in…

We clearly do not have a choice about endemicity. It will be endemic given that it very clearly evolves antigenically to achieve escape from waning neutralizing antibodies and it has animal reservoirs all over the place, including white tailed deer. It was pretty easy to see eradication was off the table in summer of 2020. At this point is kind of fucking stupid to talk about it. Even if you could snap your fingers and make it go away in humans it would just spill back from animal reservoirs. You'd have to eradicate all the deer, mink and every species you don't know about that has been infected with it. At this point it isn't humanly possible.

We won't be taking precautions forever though. Reinfection and vaccine breaktrhoughs will be mild. T-cells and B-cells don't wane the same way Nabs does and protection against severe disease and hospitalization will be durable.

There will be loss of protection as you age, but we already have that with all the ILI illnesses and viruses that lead to pneumonia and death in old people.

There won't be some worse virus that somehow punches through T-cells, that's getting into the realm of science fiction. While there's about 20 epitopes on spike that need to change for the virus to escape Nabs there's a few thousand T-cell epitopes that would need to change and many of those will be concentrated in conserved regions of the genome that can't mutate or the virus stops working.

And once you have a mature B-cell response your body can quickly respond with NAbs to prevent the viremia that leads to multiorgan infection. In fact with vaccine boosters it seems we may already have this level of protection, even against Omicron, and the jury is of course still out as to how durable that is and it may be more durable than initial shots were.

Once the virus completes the vaccination campaign the hard way then the pandemic is over and the human race has a new cold/flu virus, and we should treat it like a cold/flu virus. It is also unlikely that we'll continue boosting with vaccines. We're unlikely to get enough people boosting with vaccines every year to make a dent in spread and boosting will mostly be confined to people over 65 and those who are immune compromised. We won't ever boost our way to zero virus.

The "its just a flu" people were dead wrong in 2020, but very soon they're going to be entirely right. That doesn't fit neatly into the way that we carve up our society into Team Blue / Team Red though so its difficult for a lot of people to understand.

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