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Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

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Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#61

Post by enkid »

baud147258 wrote: post #19
3pt14159 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The west will not protect Ukraine for two giant reasons. 1. Russia has gas over Germany. 2. Amassing troops on Russia's boarder without an alliance with Ukraine is politically challenging. 3. America is sick of war and doesn't have a good looking balance sheet. 4. China is the new meta. Taiwan is tough enough. 5. Joining Nato is a process starts with have a certain level of democratic freedom and market economy that…

For joining NATO, isn't there also a requirement on territorial integrity which makes Ukraine joining impossible as long as the Donbass situation persists?

There's not official requirement, and never has been. It's more a concern about the ambiguity that would arise from such a situation.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#62

Post by jacquesm »

tomp wrote: post #55
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

I'm certain that Israel's nukes and their strategic air strikes against Iran's nuclear/military facilities (preventing Iran from having nukes) contributes much more to their protection than a standing army. This situation is obviously amplified 10x in Lithuania (population 30% of Israel) vs Russia (population 170% Iran).

And don't forget that in the Baltics there is a fairly large contingent of Ethnic Russians who are the perfect pretext for a liberation exercise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_the_Baltic_states

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#63

Post by chalcolithic »

danlugo92 wrote: post #33
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

Installing non-warmonger democrats makes sense for non-warmonger nations only.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#64

Post by rpadovani »

lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

> Will NATO come for let’s say Latvia or Lithuania?

I don't know about NATO, but I strongly hope that EU defends its territory integrity. And I am not sure Russia wants to find out either…

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#65

Post by ivan_gammel »

baud147258 wrote: post #19
3pt14159 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The west will not protect Ukraine for two giant reasons. 1. Russia has gas over Germany. 2. Amassing troops on Russia's boarder without an alliance with Ukraine is politically challenging. 3. America is sick of war and doesn't have a good looking balance sheet. 4. China is the new meta. Taiwan is tough enough. 5. Joining Nato is a process starts with have a certain level of democratic freedom and market economy that…

For joining NATO, isn't there also a requirement on territorial integrity which makes Ukraine joining impossible as long as the Donbass situation persists?

Donbass is a diversion of attention from Crimea. It will eventually settle and return back to Ukraine, as more and more countries recognize Crimea as part of Russia. It is hard to imagine Ukraine giving up on Crimea (though it would make a lot of sense by now), so it will never join NATO and it is very unlikely that they will join EU despite promises of local politicians.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#66

Post by arcticfox »

aa-jv wrote: post #22
rich_sasha wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's plenty of countries heavily dependent on Russian gas, Germany being one. I get it, from Spain it looks very different, but this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_... shows how many countries depend on Russian gas. This should have been scary to Europe for at least a decade now, but sadly wasn't.

Europeans don't hate Russians as much as Americans do - probably because they've actually got Russians visiting and know that Russia doesn't really represent the threat that the American military-industrial complex needs you to believe is real in order to justify their trillion dollar misadventures and further subjugation of NATO member states into puppetry. In fact, a lot of Europeans would like to see peace made wi…

> Europeans don't hate Russians as much as Americans do

I don't think Americans hate Russians at all, in my experience. Just Putin and a handful of oligarchs.

> probably because they've actually got Russians visiting and know that Russia doesn't really represent the threat that the American military-industrial complex needs you to believe is real in order to justify their trillion dollar misadventures and further subjugation of NATO member states into puppetry.

Some of these Russians just happen to carry Novichok or polonium and assassinate dissidents living in Europe, no big deal right?

> In fact, a lot of Europeans would like to see peace made with Russia. A Europe united with Russia would be the one superpower even China could do little to contain ..

This is a glorious fantasy

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#67

Post by thejackgoode »

oneoff786 wrote: post #51

Question to any geopolitical buffs. The one thing I learned about Russian history is that a great deal of its history was spent trying and never succeeding to get a warm water port in that area. Is that still a big deal?

Not sure what you mean by "never succeeding". I come from on of ports cities and shipyards built by Russian Empire in the south of present day Ukraine in the end of 18th century as a result of winning a war against Ottoman Empire.

What they want now exactly is a different question, the answer most likely being in one man's head only. A revenge for loss in the Cold War, reclaiming the civilisational roots of "pan-slavic" territories, getting water back to Crimea, or any of the other hundreds of possible explanations.

edit: not "Crimean war", but Russo-Turkish War (1787–1792)

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#68

Post by wongarsu »

tomp wrote: post #55
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

I'm certain that Israel's nukes and their strategic air strikes against Iran's nuclear/military facilities (preventing Iran from having nukes) contributes much more to their protection than a standing army. This situation is obviously amplified 10x in Lithuania (population 30% of Israel) vs Russia (population 170% Iran).

Israel has been in many conventional wars with it's neighbors since the day it was founded. In recent times their nukes protect them, but historically it was more about every man and women being either active military or reserve, along with an economy that is able to pay for being the best military in the region.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#69

Post by newjersey »

danlugo92 wrote: post #33
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

> The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats.

I don't actually know anything about Russia or Europe or politics in general first hand. However, from listening to a few episodes of the Economist podcast, my impression has been that Putin is stuck. He can't quit because even though he might be above being punished for his crimes, his cronies who have amassed billions are not. These folks will do everything in their power to keep Putin in power or find someone who is better at diverting people's attention from the problems affecting the people in their regular lives. Chechnya, Crimea, Ukraine, ... all these are (in my understanding) in service of the government's attempt at consolidating power at home.

> Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

What is a super sanction? In my (uninformed) opinion, a sanction is a complete sealing of a nation backed by political will and military might, preferably consensus from all the neighbors of the nation. No person and no goods go into or out of the country. No funds get transferred into the country or out of the country. All communications get cut off.

Correct me if I am wrong but Europe (I am speaking geographically, so including Ukraine) relies a lot on Russian petroleum and gas? And even if we weaned ourselves off of everything Russian, there is a border between Russia and China PR (mainland China under control of the CCP). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border

tl;dr a sanction not enforced by military might is not really a sanction, it is just a silly little non-binding resolution.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#70

Post by abcd_f »

danlugo92 wrote: post #33
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

Russia doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine for as long as it’s not in Nato. Just like the US didn’t like Russian military presence on Cuba, they don’t want the US presence in Ukraine.

It’s all fundamentally dead simple. Russia views Ukraine as a buffer country between itself and the West and will do anything to keep it that way.

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