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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#391

Post by stickfigure »

cableshaft wrote: post #47
boringg wrote: post #21

I have a question for anyone who has a serious level of knowledge on virus evolution: As viruses evolve over time is there any correlation to severity - do they have trade offs as they evolve? I am hoping that it would be some kind of trade off that the virus makes in that it can spread more easily but not be as severe (I understand that it is unlikely nature requires a trade-off). I ask as my concern is that while t…

One thing that makes Covid-19 a bit different from other viruses that have trended towards milder infections is its long incubation time (while still being infectious). So it can already spread pretty easily even if it's killing those people, and thus there's not a lot of darwinian pressure to become milder. It might still trend towards that over time, but it will probably be slower at it than other viruses, and thus…

It's not binary; if the virus is less infectious during incubation than during full infection, there's still selective pressure for milder symptoms.

A new variant need only replicate slightly faster to dominate (eventually).

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#392

Post by mikeyouse »

ineedasername wrote: post #318
TurkishPoptart wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"cases" is not really a relevant variable anymore. It's been two years of a "pandemic" and I don't know a single person who's died from this ting yet. Of course, none of my Seattle neighbors will go out to walk their dog without wearing 3 masks.

Cases are absolutely relevant: they have been a lagging indicator for deaths the entire time. It will take another 2-3 weeks to see how the current spike in cases plays out in deaths. Hopefully Omicron actually is less lethal, but we'll see soon enough. As for your experience, it is not predictive or representative given the ~800,000 US deaths. Especially because you live in an admittedly very cautious area.

It's funny too - there's apparently no consideration given to "maybe I don't know anyone who's died because everyone in my community is so cautious".

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#393

Post by vkou »

QuarterReptile wrote: post #119
simonh wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we treat Covid before hospitalisation? I just caught it at the weekend and feeling pretty crappy. I'm not aware of any particular treatment I should be taking.

This is another problem of the modal Western approach. Few people have any knowledge of mitigating strategies or medications because we've moved so aggressively to eradicate discussion of those things.

No, what we've done is that some parts of our press have denounced shilling of snake oil that doesn't work. There's no shortage of that shilling still taking place, though.

And as for knowledge, step into a hospital, and you'll see plenty of medications being used to treat actual cases of COVID. Doctors don't just put an oxygen mask on your face, and wait for you to die. You'll find a bit more knowledge there than you will in a deraged InfoWars rant, or a Joe Rogan podcast.

Unfortunately, that knowledge doesn't have 190 million monthly listeners. [1]

[1] If the most popular podcast[2] in America is your definition of 'eradicating' discussion, it's certainly an odd one.

[2] Or, if you're looking for variety in your media, you could always tune in to AM radio. Or the biggest television news syndicate in the world.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#394

Post by ASinclair »

stickfigure wrote: post #358
chimprich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. There is absolutely no evidence for this variant being less pathogenic. It is quite likely that the milder outcomes observed with this variant so far are because of immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections. The idea that this will make vaccines less essential is a fanta…

It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reservoir. Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly. It will happen eventually, and then covid will be just another common cold.

> Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly

What selection pressure exists to make it less-deadly? It takes weeks for the virus to kill people and they are most infectious early on.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#395

Post by kcplate »

native_samples wrote: post #355
chimprich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. There is absolutely no evidence for this variant being less pathogenic. It is quite likely that the milder outcomes observed with this variant so far are because of immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections. The idea that this will make vaccines less essential is a fanta…

Evidence so far: - Pathogenicity: Virtually no hospitalizations or deaths. There's only one reported death so far "with" Omicron, about which there are absolutely no details released whatsoever and which was rather suspiciously announced by the UK PM just before a vote. - Pathogenicity: all reports from SA say the symptoms are not only extremely mild, but don't actually match COVID symptoms at all. The first person t…

> I think in a properly functioning and rational health system, it would be very hard to describe this new variant as COVID. Based on the evidence and reports so far it would be more rational to describe it as a common cold virus, of the type that occur every year.

I suspect that if this omicron had emerged in 2018 at least with the symptoms and lack of severe disease that we have seen so far…it would likely have been described as a virulent common cold and may have gotten an occasional news mention, but zero public and government panic.

I think the phrase “Look for the devil and you will find him” is going to describe virology and government approach to virology for probably the next decade. This is a shame, because it seems to create and feed tyrants at almost every level of government.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#396

Post by standardUser »

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #326
roody15 wrote: post #175

This is honesty good news. The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear train running full steam. A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world.

The big question is whether the disease is genuinely milder, or whether the mild cases are just a consequence of the virus infecting people who are partially immune (due to the immune escape properties). We’ll learn the answer in a few weeks when the strain has had a chance to infect the old and unwell and we will see if the hospitalizations and deaths increase.

"...or whether the mild cases are just a consequence of the virus infecting people who are partially immune"

There are not a lot of people out there still who are not partially immune at this point, due to vaccine, recovery or both. It varies by region of course, but it's certainly true in most parts of the US.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#397

Post by ineedasername »

mikeyouse wrote: post #392
ineedasername wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cases are absolutely relevant: they have been a lagging indicator for deaths the entire time. It will take another 2-3 weeks to see how the current spike in cases plays out in deaths. Hopefully Omicron actually is less lethal, but we'll see soon enough. As for your experience, it is not predictive or representative given the ~800,000 US deaths. Especially because you live in an admittedly very cautious area.

It's funny too - there's apparently no consideration given to "maybe I don't know anyone who's died because everyone in my community is so cautious".

Yes-- and yet just about anyone in this community would roll over laughing before pointing out the obvious if someone said "Why are we devoting so much energy to computer security? We've never even been hacked"

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#398

Post by roywiggins »

defaultprimate wrote: post #372
roywiggins wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I'm not qualified to evaluate a study like this, but between Science and "el gato malo" published on Substack, I think I'm going to have to go with Science on this one, pending some recognized expert in the field with a human name saying otherwise.

Skepticism and methodological criticism are definitionally "science". Not cult like faith. Ad hominems and appeals to authority are not valid arguments.

Paying more attention to information in a peer-reviewed journal than information in a pseudonymous substack is not "cult-like faith." Of course the study could be wrong.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#399

Post by selectodude »

unmole wrote: post #264
coolspot wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen infection/death charts? It peaks in winter and at its minimum in summer.

Have you seen the charts for India?

Have you seen the charts for literally the rest of the world?

You're picking an outlier as proof that its not seasonal. Others may say it's the exception that proves the rule.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#400

Post by cblconfederate »

boringg wrote: post #21

I have a question for anyone who has a serious level of knowledge on virus evolution: As viruses evolve over time is there any correlation to severity - do they have trade offs as they evolve? I am hoping that it would be some kind of trade off that the virus makes in that it can spread more easily but not be as severe (I understand that it is unlikely nature requires a trade-off). I ask as my concern is that while t…

Viruses evolve to be more fit. Presumably, a mild version and more contagious version may even have evolved in one of the billions that were infected these years, but it didn't spread much because of self-isolation and restrictions. A variand that s more debilitating would be less likely to transmit.
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