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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#41

Post by notabee »

ufo wrote: post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

Additionally, severe illness and deaths are a lagging indicator. Cases are going to wildly outpace those figures because of how transmissable this is, until they don't. Deaths especially often take months from onset.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#42

Post by ljm »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19
ufo wrote: post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

> COVID clearly isn't going away at this point, so by all means try to replace it with something weaker!

Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it within a couple of years, particularly as far as vaccine fearmongering is concerned. Would be nice to see it join Smallpox and Polio though.

That said, we've accepted an annual winter uptick in flu infections and we just tell people most vulnerable to get their yearly flu jab; less vulnerable folks can stay at home for a bit and manage the symptoms. If that's what we have to do for covid every winter then so be it.

I would still call that a victory overall.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#43

Post by ceejayoz »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #26
boringg wrote: post #21

I have a question for anyone who has a serious level of knowledge on virus evolution: As viruses evolve over time is there any correlation to severity - do they have trade offs as they evolve? I am hoping that it would be some kind of trade off that the virus makes in that it can spread more easily but not be as severe (I understand that it is unlikely nature requires a trade-off). I ask as my concern is that while t…

From what I know as not being a professional doctor, I would say that it appears to me that viruses get less dangerous over time, not more dangerous. This appears to be because viruses that are overly dangerous kill off their hosts too quickly, limiting their ability to spread, whereas the milder forms don't kill their hosts as easily and spread more broadly, building immunity against the stronger variants over time.…

It's not something you can count on; smallpox remained highly lethal across thousands of years. There's probably also a bit of an element of natural selection against humans involved; the people who died early of the Black Death may have been genetically more susceptible to it.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#44

Post by dsizzle »

dsizzle wrote: post #16
vkou wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Second infections, on average, have slightly worse outcomes then first infections among the unvaccinated. https://jim.bmj.com/content/69/6/1253 It's a small sample, but it was done on data available in 2020, which was before vaccines were available.

That link shows most (69%) have similar outcomes. 68.8% -- 19% had worse symptoms and 12.5% had milder symptoms. Small sample size, but even similar result is somewhat surprising -- I would've thought the 2nd infection would be weaker.

Went looking for later studies with larger population sizes and found this review https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S204908012...

It's not that much larger -- I guess reinfections are hard to find -- but surprisingly this found that ICU admission was higher for reinfections.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#45

Post by ceejayoz »

listless wrote: post #40
zzzeek wrote: post #27

cue the "it's just the flu!" army. on this end, I do not want covid at all, straight up. I will keep wearing my N95 to all the dirty looks I keep getting and boost as much as the boosts are there.

I think you should plan on getting it at some point. That’s what endemic means and that’s where we are. You’re just prolonging the inevitable.

"Prolonging the inevitable" still has a benefit for hospital capacity. If every uninfected person went and got it tomorrow, it wouldn't be pretty.

I'm still wearing my KN95 to busy indoor places in part because it's been nice not getting colds/flus for the last two years, too.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#46

Post by jatone »

ljm wrote: post #42
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

> COVID clearly isn't going away at this point, so by all means try to replace it with something weaker! Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it within a couple of years, particularly as far as vaccine fearmongering is concerned. Would be nice to see it join Smallpox and Polio though. That said, we've accepted an annual winter uptick in flu infections and we just tell people most vulnerable to get their…

I havent seen any evidence covid is seasonal. it may become seasonal. but nothing in the past 2 years as indicated it is.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#47

Post by cableshaft »

boringg wrote: post #21

I have a question for anyone who has a serious level of knowledge on virus evolution: As viruses evolve over time is there any correlation to severity - do they have trade offs as they evolve? I am hoping that it would be some kind of trade off that the virus makes in that it can spread more easily but not be as severe (I understand that it is unlikely nature requires a trade-off). I ask as my concern is that while t…

One thing that makes Covid-19 a bit different from other viruses that have trended towards milder infections is its long incubation time (while still being infectious). So it can already spread pretty easily even if it's killing those people, and thus there's not a lot of darwinian pressure to become milder.

It might still trend towards that over time, but it will probably be slower at it than other viruses, and thus the 'it gets milder over time' aphorism about viruses doesn't apply as strongly to Covid-19.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#48

Post by legulere »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19
ufo wrote: post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

Of course we should be optimistic that omicron and variants that will follow will be less severe.

But that hope should not be treated as a fact like the headline does.

Another hope could be that omicron is actually not as virulent as delta, but only spreads so fast in South Africa, because people can get reinfected.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#50

Post by croes »

bognition wrote: post #9

There are a few important bits here: First: "The study by Discovery Health, South Africa’s largest health insurer, of 211,000 positive coronavirus cases, of which 78,000 were attributed to omicron, showed that risk of hospital admissions among adults who contracted covid-19 was 29 percent lower than in the initial pandemic wave that emerged in March 2020." and second: "At the same time, the vaccine may offer 70 perce…

Don't forget this part: "South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection"

So it could simply be that the mild cases were previously infected, what happens to an unvaccinated without prior infection is a different story.

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