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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#391

Post by tshaddox »

rajup wrote: post #371
tshaddox wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to argue with you too hard, but I’m also in my 30s and you definitely downplay the “self-interest” angle more than I do. Indeed, I got my shots because I want to “do my part,” and I’m also not particularly worried about personally getting severely sick or dying. But I also just don’t want to get sick at all because getting sick sucks . That’s the same reason I’ve been getting yearly flu shots every year since col…

Mostly agree, but have you considered that perhaps falling sick once in a while allows your immune system to adapt and become more stronger? I mean vaccines have been around for all of 100-200 years...

The only reason to want your immune system to be stronger is to not get sick, right? I certainly wouldn’t choose to get sick once a month in order to have a super mega strong immune system, for example. The desired end goal is to get sick less often!

In certain cases it may be that getting a mild infection does help prevent later more serious infections, but AFAIK those cases are generally getting infected as an infant or child. I’m not aware of evidence showing that current widespread vaccines for adults have this effect of trading mild illness now for more serious illness later.

Re: Update on Omicron

#392

Post by edmcnulty101 »

julianz wrote: post #309
mattrighetti wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New Zealand seems to have abandoned that Zero Covid approach [0] > Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern acknowledged an end to the elimination strategy seven weeks into a lockdown that has failed to halt an outbreak of the Delta variant, announcing that restrictions would be gradually lifted in Auckland, the country’s largest city. > “We’re transitioning from our current strategy into a new way of doing things,” Ms. Ardern…

That said, NZ is still only discovering 1-200 cases a day and total deaths since it started are still well under 100. The South Island has hardly any Covid at all. Overall vaccination rates are reasonable and will get better when children are given the all-clear to get it.

It's an island(s) with it's borders closed isn't it?

Re: Update on Omicron

#393

Post by edmcnulty101 »

djbusby wrote: post #182
Hermel wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

We got to zero polio. What's stopping it from happening here?

Two doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) are 90% effective or more against polio; three doses are 99% to 100% effective.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/polio/hcp/effectiveness-dur...

Re: Update on Omicron

#394

Post by unclebucknasty »

PostOnce wrote: post #349
harry8 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talking about vaccine hesitancy in Africa must be accompanied by why there's a certain amount of justification of it and it can be viewed as entirely rational, if also wholly undesirable. Included in that must be the USA's role in creating that problem. A couple of examples quickly turned up with a search engine of which there seem to be far, far too many. I can recall a few not here being reported over the past deca…

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

>I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda

Same, including medical professionals who fit this description.

It's clearly an emotional and tribal issue at this point. The animating factor of nearly all of this denialism is a narrative of distrust and outright animus for the "establishment" and the organizations that represent it.

Re: Update on Omicron

#395

Post by Tagbert »

nimbleal wrote: post #337
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Do the vaccines have a significant enough impact on transmissibility for that to be true? My understanding is that, while they significantly improve instances of serious illness and death, the effect on transmission is limited (or at least not high enough for “eradication” to be on the cards). All for greater support of less developed countries in terms of vaccine supplies, but not sure this is the argument for it.

The most recent study that I’ve seen showed a 71% reduction in infection rates for unvaccinated people living with vaccinated people. That suggests a pretty strong transmissibility effect.

Re: Update on Omicron

#396

Post by nradov »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #280
Hermel wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

I don’t know. You don’t need 100% efficacy to achieve herd immunity (obviously I’m not an epidemiologist and my terms are imprecise) if you have a sufficiently vaccinated population. I generally agree that we should depart from a covid zero strategy, but not because the vaccines aren’t effective; rather, because too many people are making decisions based on FUD and there doesn’t seem like much that can be done about…

The Delta variant is so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

Re: Update on Omicron

#397

Post by Frondo »

rajup wrote: post #371
tshaddox wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to argue with you too hard, but I’m also in my 30s and you definitely downplay the “self-interest” angle more than I do. Indeed, I got my shots because I want to “do my part,” and I’m also not particularly worried about personally getting severely sick or dying. But I also just don’t want to get sick at all because getting sick sucks . That’s the same reason I’ve been getting yearly flu shots every year since col…

Mostly agree, but have you considered that perhaps falling sick once in a while allows your immune system to adapt and become more stronger? I mean vaccines have been around for all of 100-200 years...

> allows your immune system to adapt and become more stronger

This is precisely what vaccines do, without the "falling sick" part first.

Re: Update on Omicron

#398

Post by YZF »

mattrighetti wrote: post #376
YZF wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you think of some issues with this study? legitimate question. Looking at one data point here. Israel. The data point pretty much represents the peak of the wave caused by the Delta variant. The story in Israel goes that the vaccines worked so well against the previous variants that the entire country went back to normal. But with 60% of the population vaccinated and Delta the effective R number is easily over 1…

I can think of many actually, but this is not my field of expertise so I don't want to jump on erroneous conclusions and I want to pay close attention to what I say, other than get feedback from others that for sure know a lot more than me. Just to get things straight, I am in no way saying that vaccines are not effective, there is strong evidence that indicates the contrary. I was responding to a user who claimed th…

I don't think the study shows that either. Generally the bulk of the cases and especially hospitalizations and deaths have been amongst unvaccinated. When you have 40% of a country unvaccinated and when those 40% tend to form social groups and closer connections you can't really look at the country as a whole.

At any rate, the methodology of the paper is just way off. If you truly wanted to understand the correlation between vaccination and infection rates you need to try to control for other factors. That is just experiment design 101. If you control for nothing while there are other significant factors then you get nothing. If the paper is saying "there can be high covid rates with 60%-70% vaccine coverage and the delta variants" then sure, but also duh.

Re: Update on Omicron

#399

Post by curmudgeon22 »

Tagbert wrote: post #395
nimbleal wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do the vaccines have a significant enough impact on transmissibility for that to be true? My understanding is that, while they significantly improve instances of serious illness and death, the effect on transmission is limited (or at least not high enough for “eradication” to be on the cards). All for greater support of less developed countries in terms of vaccine supplies, but not sure this is the argument for it.

The most recent study that I’ve seen showed a 71% reduction in infection rates for unvaccinated people living with vaccinated people. That suggests a pretty strong transmissibility effect.

This study says much less than 71% reduction, 25% of vaccinated and 38% of unvaccinated people got Covid when living with an infected person.

https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2638

Re: Update on Omicron

#400

Post by exegete »

bengale wrote: post #23

I think this might be the most level headed information I’ve seen so far: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/go-get-your-v...

I read through it and the assessment makes sense (vaccine effectiveness is not binary in the face of spike protein mutations). But I think it also fails to mention the promising anti-COVID pills that are going to be approved soon, and those from my understanding wouldn’t be as affected by spike protein mutations since they use a different mechanism for treatment. [0]

0. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-antiviral-d...

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