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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#311

Post by alxhghs »

mcbits wrote: post #134
cletus wrote: post #108

No one still thinks Covid is ever going away, right? It's likely something we'll just have to deal with like the flu. For one thing, there are now Covid-19 reservoirs in various animal populations. It's hard to say how this will evolve but there's a lot of evolutionary pressure on viruses to become more transmissible and less deadly. Why less deadly? Because a virus that is too deadly will likely die. It's why the Sp…

It can and will be eradicated, and eventually the flu along with it (which was already a high research priority before Covid). Just not soon.

Honest question, how could it ever be eradicated when people actively aren’t willing to cooperate?

Re: Update on Omicron

#312

Post by heavyset_go »

samwillis wrote: post #167
mr_sturd wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very true; and even if Omicron turns out to be less dangerous than previous variants, it's a case of when, not if, a deadlier variant will emerge from a poorly-vaccinated population.

History shows that as a Virus mutates and evolves they tend towards more transmissibility but lower morality rate. There is a high chance Covid-19 will flow the same path. That’s not to say that a more deadly variant won’t appear it almost certainly will (or has already) but it is unlikely to become the dominant variant.

> History shows that as a Virus mutates and evolves they tend towards more transmissibility but lower morality rate.

This isn't guaranteed, there are plenty of viruses that are still cause severe illness despite being around for quite some time. It's entirely possible that the virus mutates to be more lethal[1], as well.

And if mortality does decrease, it could take many human lifetimes before such an equilibrium is reached. In the meantime, the virus can mutate, wreak havoc and kill a lot of people.

It's also important to point out that virus evolution depends on selection pressures, and one of the selection pressures for decreased viral lethality is a severe reduction of host organisms that the virus can replicate in. That is to say that the selection pressure that causes a virus to be less lethal can very well be the eradication of large populations of host organisms.

[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/14/fac...

Re: Update on Omicron

#313

Post by thelittleone »

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #213
xg15 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. The problem is just that those measures are so drastic that many countries would probably not accept them. The goal in western countries is to get to the "endemic phase" of the infection - i.e. "live with the virus". That's all well and good, unfortunately this requires the disease to become significantly less deadly than it still is. We're…

Covid is currently endemic in New Zealand. Delta spreads too fast for their old strategies to work, and Omicron looks to be substantially worse.

Omicron might spread faster but we dont know yet. The doctor in SA who first treated people infected with omicron says synptoms are far less severe for example, no loss of taste or smell and no hospitilization.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safrican-doctor-says-pa...

Re: Update on Omicron

#314

Post by disambiguation »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Have they open sourced the vaccine recipe?

I feel like that would help greatly to this end.

Re: Update on Omicron

#315

Post by Ginden »

LasersGoPew wrote: post #237
samwillis wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History shows that as a Virus mutates and evolves they tend towards more transmissibility but lower morality rate. There is a high chance Covid-19 will flow the same path. That’s not to say that a more deadly variant won’t appear it almost certainly will (or has already) but it is unlikely to become the dominant variant.

The current vaccines don't prevent infection, reinfection, or transmission -- which eliminates much of the selective pressure for lower mortality. We could end up with a situation where everyone alive on earth is vaccinated, carries the virus, receives regular boosters, and anyone who isn't or who misses a few boosters, faces certain death. Similar to Marek’s disease in chickens.

Current vaccines are effective at infection prevention. For modRNA vaccine, it's around 80% after 6 months.

Transmission seem to be recuded only for 2 months after vaccination.

Re: Update on Omicron

#316

Post by cletus »

alxhghs wrote: post #311
mcbits wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can and will be eradicated, and eventually the flu along with it (which was already a high research priority before Covid). Just not soon.

Honest question, how could it ever be eradicated when people actively aren’t willing to cooperate?

The optimist in me hopes that today's anti-vaxxers are just the current incarnation of Luddites. We've had resistance to new ideas for probably the entirety of human history. I mean Galileo was persecuted for heresy. Irrational dogma eventually fades into history.

We can but hope.

Re: Update on Omicron

#317

Post by marchingtomars »

markdown wrote: post #37
marchingtomars wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't have to be someone in government. It could be a group of people acting strategically towards a particular goal, in a series of steps. Those steps would include paying funds for the following: Lobbying governmental officials across all three branches, Strategically networking & "giving gifts" (quid pro quo), Sponsoring scientific studies, Paying journalists to report certain things. For example, Amazon Exec…

But what about the frogs turning gay?

You're disrespectfully referring to the work of Dr. Tyrone Hayes [1] of The University of California at Berkeley, who discovered that Syngenta's herbicide Atrazine is indeed an endocrine disruptor, causing frogs (of both genders I believe) to turn hemaphroditic, develop both male & female gonads-- i.e. males developing ovaries, females developing testes.

Do you... prefer pollutants in your water?

Do you... approve of chemical companies privatizing the gains (profits) of externalizing pollutants into innocent ecosystems and humans?

Or maybe... you just really love to be told what to think by media overlords [2].

[1] https://vcresearch.berkeley.edu/faculty/tyrone-b-hayes

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird

Re: Update on Omicron

#318

Post by harry8 »

xg15 wrote: post #170
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Absolutely true, but not the whole story unfortunately. While many African countries need more vaccines, South Africa was in the process of throttling shipments because less and less people were getting vaccinated. So the other big challenge is raising acceptance of the vaccines and fighting denialism.

Talking about vaccine hesitancy in Africa must be accompanied by why there's a certain amount of justification of it and it can be viewed as entirely rational, if also wholly undesirable. Included in that must be the USA's role in creating that problem. A couple of examples quickly turned up with a search engine of which there seem to be far, far too many. I can recall a few not here being reported over the past decade or so. When you tell lies you incur a debt to the truth, the interest rate is very steep. What we're seeing now is one such payment.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/12/di...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vacci...

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/31/opinion/31washington.html

Re: Update on Omicron

#319

Post by marchingtomars »

markdown wrote: post #215
legostormtroopr wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Estrogen and estrogen-like plastics in waterways is a huge problem. Some people mis interpreted it, but that doesn’t discount the fact that plastics are a huge problem that are interfering with nature. https://www.newsweek.com/female-frogs-estrogen-hermaphrodite...

Sorry, my attempt at sarcasm. I know it's a serious problem, but that wasn't Alex Jones' take on it. Why Alex Jones? Because the person I was responding to sounded like him.

Sarcasm? Try some humility: reproach your own abject ignorance for a moment (once you stop disrespecting the important work of Dr. Tyrone Hayes by ignorantly conflating it with "conspiracy theory"):

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed, citizens can change the world.

Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

I passed legislation in college [1] -- With a group of 8 students, we activated thousands of students across our state, reaching local, state, national media.

And through our work, convinced dozens of legislators to pass our legislation.

--> A small group of people can make a major impact.

--> You don't seem aware of this fact. Maybe you're not particularly strategic in your work, and...

--> therefore you're not aware that small, strategic groups of people can impact significantly larger groups of people?

_____________

Specifically on the topic of "Conspiracy Theory" which you've apparently been conditioned to fear the thought of--

Have you read about Operation Mockingbird?

Or do you just take anything the media tells you-- hook, line, and sinker?

[1] https://thedailytexan.com/2010/08/26/ut-expands-sustainabili...

Re: Update on Omicron

#320

Post by wallacoloo »

yufeng66 wrote: post #285

The omicron variant could be a blessing in disguise if the early stories on how it is less deadly checks out. That means people refuse to get the vaccine shot will be infected with the omicron variant with relatively low consequence and get immunity that way. Btw this is how it suppose to work. The virus has no incentive to kill its host. The variant that is fast spreading and less deadly eventually wins out.

this makes me think that there’s got to be at least some people in power who believe that engineering and releasing a more transmissible but less deadly variant is a prudent way to respond to this pandemic. i wonder how many people are working on this right now.
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