Would it be good if Omicron were more transmissible but less harmful?
Theoretically, could a mutation evolve that was highly transmissible but harmless? What would happen?
Update on Omicron
331–340 of 794 posts
Re: Update on Omicron
#332South Africa's COVID-19 adviser, Prof Barry Schoub told Sky News that so far, most Omicron cases, were mild. https://youtu.be/3RSRtuRm92o Edit: "South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... "Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy pr…
> most Omicron cases, were mild.
I'm really hoping this holds true as the situation evolves.
In the mean time, my concern with this statement is that Africa was already "doing well" against covid .. bc of a combination of low testing, but also they have a smaller at risk population compared to the west.
In the west we're a lot better at keeping vulnerable people alive a lot longer, which consequently winds up as the demographic covid likes to target.
Optimistically, I do think if omicron was an order of magnitude worse than what we've been dealing with, we would already see "hints" of such traits .. fortunately that doesn't seem to be the case, for now.
Moving forward, I hope everyone continues to treat this seriously .. but it's becoming more clear that covid is here to stay no matter what measures we take.
Re: Update on Omicron
#333Earlier quoted context omitted.
It can and will be eradicated, and eventually the flu along with it (which was already a high research priority before Covid). Just not soon.
Honest question, how could it ever be eradicated when people actively aren’t willing to cooperate?
If the reproduction rate is kept low enough for an extended time, the virus eventually extinguishes itself. With vaccination, "self-vaccination" among the uncooperative, sanitation, testing, contact tracing, and some fraction of the population continuing to take personal measures, the combination can bring the rate down low enough.
Re: Update on Omicron
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a misconception: it is not known that the virus will become less deadly over time; in fact, there is good reason to believe that it may become more deadly because virulence is positively associated with tramissibility. https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/will-covid-19-evolve-be-mo...
So what happened to Spanish Flu ?
the flu is contagious once it has symptoms, which mean severe symptoms lead people to self-isolate naturally before it spreads, thus it survives better if its symptoms are less severe.
covid has no such issue as it spreads well before it has any severity and for a few days before any symptoms. all the deadly stuff happens a week later once you've been transmitting for many days.
the above link explains this well
> So, unless SARS-CoV-2 becomes so virulent that it causes people to become severely ill and self-isolate before they transmit the virus to other people, there is no pressure on it to become less deadly.
Re: Update on Omicron
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.
Yeah it’s my understanding that you can’t make a very effective or lasting vaccine for a coronavirus. It’s my opinion that this mRNA vaccine is just a great way to make money and an excuse to bring about rapid social changes.
What a silly comment, especially as there are recombinant vaccines for covid, not just mRNA. mRNA based treatments (not just vaccines) have the possibility to save a significant amount of lives in future.
Re: Update on Omicron
#336Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…
Totally agree. I am 30 and already got 2 jabs. I will probably need to get 3rd in less than 6 months to be able to normally live (covid pass in Europe). Risk to person of my age is low even without vaccine. I got myself vaccinated only to help the society (and to get covid pass) but I do not feel that I am helping if they are wasting vaccines on people like me instead of sending them to people who actually need them.…
Not to argue with you too hard, but I’m also in my 30s and you definitely downplay the “self-interest” angle more than I do. Indeed, I got my shots because I want to “do my part,” and I’m also not particularly worried about personally getting severely sick or dying.
But I also just don’t want to get sick at all because getting sick sucks.
That’s the same reason I’ve been getting yearly flu shots every year since college. Before COVID I never even really considered the personal risk of long-term side effects or death from flu (although I’m sure there’s some measurable risk) or the fact that flu kills tons of people every year. I just hate getting sick and from the evidence I’ve seen the flu vaccine is very safe and usually fairly effective at preventing the flu. Same goes for the COVID shots. I’d take common cold vaccines if they were similarly safe and effective and readily available.
Re: Update on Omicron
#337Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…
Do the vaccines have a significant enough impact on transmissibility for that to be true? My understanding is that, while they significantly improve instances of serious illness and death, the effect on transmission is limited (or at least not high enough for “eradication” to be on the cards).
All for greater support of less developed countries in terms of vaccine supplies, but not sure this is the argument for it.
Re: Update on Omicron
#338Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…
Its as if we ALL have to pull together as Humans with our fellow Humans..
Perhaps it wont be an alien invasion that makes us realize this after all.. but a virus.
We must Help each other, or else... A decade or more of this...
Re: Update on Omicron
#339Earlier quoted context omitted.
It can and will be eradicated, and eventually the flu along with it (which was already a high research priority before Covid). Just not soon.
Honest question, how could it ever be eradicated when people actively aren’t willing to cooperate?
people don’t just flip a coin and say “heads, i won’t cooperate”. they all have their own reasons for not cooperating. very few of those reasons are “i flat out don’t want this virus to be eradicated”. so address their concerns, and problem solved.
i’m not claiming it’ll be easy, and i don’t think it’s practical within the short span of a few years, but it’s not impossible.
Re: Update on Omicron
#340Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…
You Are Immune Against Every Disease.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmpuerlbJu0