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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#371

Post by rajup »

tshaddox wrote: post #336
kubav wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally agree. I am 30 and already got 2 jabs. I will probably need to get 3rd in less than 6 months to be able to normally live (covid pass in Europe). Risk to person of my age is low even without vaccine. I got myself vaccinated only to help the society (and to get covid pass) but I do not feel that I am helping if they are wasting vaccines on people like me instead of sending them to people who actually need them.…

Not to argue with you too hard, but I’m also in my 30s and you definitely downplay the “self-interest” angle more than I do. Indeed, I got my shots because I want to “do my part,” and I’m also not particularly worried about personally getting severely sick or dying. But I also just don’t want to get sick at all because getting sick sucks . That’s the same reason I’ve been getting yearly flu shots every year since col…

Mostly agree, but have you considered that perhaps falling sick once in a while allows your immune system to adapt and become more stronger? I mean vaccines have been around for all of 100-200 years...

Re: Update on Omicron

#373

Post by jenscow »

gukov wrote: post #46
EugeneOZ wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just caught myself on the funny fact, that my level of trust for some stranger on HN is higher than the level of trust for WHO. They worked hard to ruin their reputation.

Yeah, not after this: https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?s=21

Did you read it?

Re: Update on Omicron

#374

Post by nradov »

YZF wrote: post #330
mattrighetti wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate more on that? Legitimate question, I came across this a couple days ago on some other thread here on HN.

Can you think of some issues with this study? legitimate question. Looking at one data point here. Israel. The data point pretty much represents the peak of the wave caused by the Delta variant. The story in Israel goes that the vaccines worked so well against the previous variants that the entire country went back to normal. But with 60% of the population vaccinated and Delta the effective R number is easily over 1…

"Experts: Vaccine Immunity Waning, Signs Israel Facing Fifth COVID Wave"

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/experts-vaccine-immunity...

Re: Update on Omicron

#375

Post by babyshake »

PostOnce wrote: post #349
harry8 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talking about vaccine hesitancy in Africa must be accompanied by why there's a certain amount of justification of it and it can be viewed as entirely rational, if also wholly undesirable. Included in that must be the USA's role in creating that problem. A couple of examples quickly turned up with a search engine of which there seem to be far, far too many. I can recall a few not here being reported over the past deca…

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

I don't personally believe this, but I know some people who claim that Robert Malone who invented mRNA is saying that the mRNA vaccines are more likely to create worse mutations of the disease. It seems more intuitive that getting vaccinated is the best way to prevent mutations but I'm curious if there is a good response to people who do have these concerns about the mRNA vaccines.

Re: Update on Omicron

#376

Post by mattrighetti »

YZF wrote: post #330
mattrighetti wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate more on that? Legitimate question, I came across this a couple days ago on some other thread here on HN.

Can you think of some issues with this study? legitimate question. Looking at one data point here. Israel. The data point pretty much represents the peak of the wave caused by the Delta variant. The story in Israel goes that the vaccines worked so well against the previous variants that the entire country went back to normal. But with 60% of the population vaccinated and Delta the effective R number is easily over 1…

I can think of many actually, but this is not my field of expertise so I don't want to jump on erroneous conclusions and I want to pay close attention to what I say, other than get feedback from others that for sure know a lot more than me. Just to get things straight, I am in no way saying that vaccines are not effective, there is strong evidence that indicates the contrary.

I was responding to a user who claimed that the more covid goes around, the more it mutates, and as far as I understand it's what viruses do and therefore is a correct statement.

I then linked this study and cautiously pointed out that it is "disputed", which may still be the wrong term in that case or I was erroneously giving too much credit to the paper itself.

You then point out that the study highlights the Delta variant peak when dealing with the Israel data, and I could agree on that.

What the study is trying to highlight, as far as I can tell, is not to undervalue *vaccination which has strong evidence ww to greatly lower hospitalisation and death risk from covid infection*, but it instead tries to tell that even in vastly vaccinated communities there are a lot of cases and they can't be distinguished from those in communities with lower vaccination rate.

So my argument was: if cases are rising in largely vaccinated communities, the virus will inevitably mutate in those communities too and it is not a pattern only related to third world countries with low vaccination rates.

Re: Update on Omicron

#377

Post by mschuster91 »

christophilus wrote: post #290
azangru wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a researcher posted a comment here on HN where they said that virus deadliness and contagiousness were in tension. I've heard this statement a lot, and have been rather puzzled by why this must be the case. It's certainly true over a long period of time (a deadly pathogen that will kill off its hosts too quickly will also perish); and it's also certainly true that if a pathogen is very contagious but not deadly it…

There is no such mechanism, from what I’ve read (not an expert). Most diseases demonstrate the tension for the reason you give: too deadly too fast reduces transmission rate. But hypothetically, you could conceive of a disease with a high R value that is asymptomatic for the first month or two, and deadly in month three.

> But hypothetically, you could conceive of a disease with a high R value that is asymptomatic for the first month or two, and deadly in month three.

Why hypothetically? HIV has historically had an insanely high R value (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3880255/), delayed fatal severity - and a CFR of nearly 100%.

We are lucky we have medication now, after 40 years and somewhat 35 million lives lost to that disease.

Re: Update on Omicron

#378

Post by nradov »

sjg007 wrote: post #370
nradov wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SARS-CoV-2 is endemic worldwide in humans and multiple animal species. It will never be eradicated no matter how many people are vaccinated. The vaccines are good at preventing deaths, however they don't reliably prevent infection or transmission. The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience persistent infections. Vaccines aren't very effective for s…

Vaccines are in fact absolutely critical to not only prevent variants in immunocompromised patients but save their lives.

You seem to be a little confused about how vaccines work. While I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, vaccines aren't very effective in immunocompromised patients. Even those who are vaccinated are at risk of persistent infections (depending on their specific medical condition).

Re: Update on Omicron

#380

Post by trashcan_ »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

There aren’t enough administered vaccines. Many areas have vaccine doses but lack infrastructure to deliver them or just simply have ineffective government.
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